Saturday, September 21, 2024

Bowl projections: Oklahoma loss opens door wider for Cincinnati as Alabama enters playoff field

Bowl projections: Oklahoma loss opens door wider for Cincinnati as Alabama enters playoff field
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It has been another positive week for Cincinnati in its quest to become the first Group of Five team to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. And as always, a “good week” for the Bearcats has almost nothing to do with their own games.

No, the good news for Cincinnati this week comes in the form of a loss by Oklahoma at the hands of Baylor. That knocked the Sooners from the ranks of the unbeaten and guaranteed that the Big 12 will not have an undefeated champion.

It’s also one more obstacle removed from Cincinnati’s path to glory.

Oklahoma is no longer projected into the College Football Playoff. The Sooners are replaced by Alabama, which is now projected as the first two-loss team to earn a CFP spot in event history. The Crimson Tide enter as the No. 4 seed.

Oklahoma remains the other candidate for the final spot, however, as it is still projected to finish 12-1 and win the Big 12. But as we have learned this season, the CFP Selection Committee loves Alabama, which it currently has ranked No. 2.

The Crimson Tide are projected to win out through the regular season before losing to No. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Those two would then rematch in a CFP semifinal at the Orange Bowl.

Ohio State is now projected as the No. 2 seed with the Buckeyes expected to finish 12-1 as the Big Ten champions. Cincinnati, previously in as the No. 4 seed, moves one spot to No. 3 where it will face its in-state rivals in the Cotton Bowl semifinal.

College Football Playoff

Jan. 10

National Championship

Indianapolis

Title game Semifinal winners

Dec. 31

Orange Bowl

Miami Gardens, Fla.

Semifinal

(1) Georgia vs. (4) Alabama

Dec. 31

Cotton Bowl

Arlington, Texas

Semifinal

(2) Ohio State vs. (3) Cincinnati

Oregon remains the projected Pac-12 champion, but it’s expected to hold an 11-2 record with another loss to come before the end of the regular season. Oklahoma State is projected to lose at least once to Oklahoma (a Big 12 Championship Game rematch is not assured), while both Michigan and Michigan State are projected to fall to Ohio State later this month.

The remainder of Jerry Palm’s bowl projections after Week 11 will be updated Sunday morning in this space.

Michigan impresses while Oklahoma and Texas fall, Florida has a rough rough day and more in this week’s Instant Reaction by the Cover 3 crew recapping Week 11 scores and results in college football.

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