Rick Barnes and the No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers face an intriguing in-state test on Sunday afternoon. Tennessee hosts the East Tennessee State Buccaneers at Thompson-Boling Arena in what should be an intriguing contest. The Volunteers are 1-0 this season, defeating UT-Martin by a 28-point margin in the opener. ETSU lost its opener in narrow fashion to Appalachian State on Friday evening. Tennessee forward John Fulkerson (thumb) is probable.
Tipoff is at noon ET in Knoxville, Tenn. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Vols as 16.5-point favorites at home, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 136 in the latest Tennessee vs. ETSU odds. Before making any ETSU vs. Tennessee picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Div. I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of $2,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Tennessee vs. ETSU and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for ETSU vs. Tennessee:
- Tennessee vs. ETSU spread: Tennessee -16.5
- Tennessee vs. ETSU over-under: 136 points
- UT: The Volunteers are 14-14 against the spread in the last 28 games
- ETSU: The Buccaneers are 13-11 against the spread in the last 24 games
Why Tennessee can cover
While Tennessee’s dominant win over UT-Martin was impressive on its own, the Volunteers can rely on a very strong baseline dating back to the 2020-21 season. Tennessee posted a top-five national mark in defensive efficiency a season ago, with impressive metrics across the board. Opponents posted an effective field-goal shooting mark of 46.3 percent, including only 44.9 percent on 2-point shots, and Tennessee forced a turnover on 22.8 percent of defensive possessions.
Tennessee has the athletic and size advantage in this matchup, which also manifests in a 14.1 percent block rate that ranked in the top 20 nationally a season ago. On offense, Tennessee put pressure on the rim with a 31.3 percent offensive rebound rate and an SEC-leading free throw creation rate. The Volunteers also assisted on 58.8 percent of field goals last season and, with top-10 recruit and possible NBA lottery pick Kennedy Chandler at the helm of the offense in 2021-22, Tennessee might have even loftier upside in overall offensive efficiency.
Why ETSU can cover
ETSU is a strong mid-major program. The Buccaneers ranked as the No. 2 offense and the No. 3 defense in the Southern Conference a season ago. On offense, ETSU is very effective on the glass, securing 30.5 percent of missed shots, and the Buccaneers led the Southern Conference in that metric in 2020-21. ETSU also knocked down 34.9 percent from 3-point range, opening the door to positive variance.
On defense, the Buccaneers led the Southern Conference with a steal rate of 11.2 percent, and ETSU forced a turnover on 19.8 percent of defensive possessions a season ago.
How to make ETSU vs. Tennessee picks
The model is leaning over on the total. It also has generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in 70 percent of simulations. You can get the model’s pick only at SportsLine.
So who wins Tennessee vs. ETSU? And which side of the spread can you bank on in 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,200 on its college basketball picks the last four years, and find out.
