Fantasy Football Week 11 quarterback rankings: Patrick Mahomes making some adjustments

There’s something interesting happening with QB play around the NFL in recent weeks. As friend of FFT (and former co-worker) Ben Gretch pointed out Monday, league-wide average depth of target has fallen from 8.2 yards per pass attempt during the first six weeks of the season down to 7.5 over the past four. That may not sound like much, but when you’re talking about nearly 4,000 pass attempts over the past four weeks, that’s a pretty sizable shift. 

What does that mean for Fantasy? It’s hard to say right now. We’ve seen guys like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes struggle to complete the deep ball recently, with Mahomes adjusting to post the lowest intended air yards per target of his career in Week 10, choosing to lean on the short pass when that’s what the defense is giving him. It led to one of his best games of the season in Week 10, but we also continued to see fewer explosive plays from the Chiefs. 

This is something to watch for over the rest of the season because it’s possible that the shift toward ever more pass-heavy approaches might lead defenses to grow more comfortable giving up the short stuff (or getting hurt by the run) rather than allowing big plays. In theory, that should benefit rushing quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, who can hurt defenses when they are dropping seven back in coverage with his legs or by extending plays and finding holes in the defense. Jackson would be my No. 1 QB for Week 11 regardless of this fact, but it’s an interesting shift that could have an impact on how we value quarterbacks, so it’s something I’ll be watching closely moving forward. 

Here are my QB rankings for Week 11. To see the rankings from Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings, make sure you head here.  

Week 11 QB Rankings

1. Lamar Jackson @CHI — The Ravens didn’t really have an answer for the Dolphins blitz-heavy approach, but I’m not concerned that’s going to be an issue moving forward. He’s got the best weapons of his career at his disposal, the Ravens are throwing more than ever, but he’s still arguably the best rushing QB in the NFL. There just isn’t anyone right now who can match his weekly upside, in my eyes.
2. Patrick Mahomes vs. DAL — This should be the biggest shootout of the weekend, and the Chiefs made the adjustments they needed in Week 10 to overcome their recent struggles. There are still some questions about whether this offense can be as consistently good as it was in the past if explosive plays are harder to come by, but that doesn’t make me want to downgrade Mahomes much at all. 
3. Josh Allen vs. IND
4. Tom Brady vs. NYG — Brady was another elite QB who uncharacteristically struggled in Week 10, and that was against a great matchup with Washington. It’s fair to wonder if Chris Godwin’s injury along with the absences of Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown might have been too much to overcome, but you also have to believe Brady isn’t going to have two bad games in a row. 
5. Dak Prescott @KC — The other end of that shootout, Prescott looked much better in Week 10 after his struggles in the previous game, so my expectations are sky-high for this one. 
6. Jalen Hurts vs. NO — This is a tough matchup, but the Saints haven’t really been tested by a true running quarterback, so we don’t exactly know how they’ll hold up. I’m a bit iffy on Hurts being this high, but he’s also averaged 10.3 rush attempts per game since the Eagles moved to a more run-heavy approach, and I’m just as iffy on everyone else behind him, more or less. Give me the consistent rushing floor and ceiling he brings.  
7. Joe Burrow @LV — Burrow struggled in his last game before the bye, and it’s a bit surprising to see him leading the NFL in interceptions through nine games. He’s playing extremely well overall despite that, but with little rushing upside and a likely unsustainable touchdown rate, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he was a little worse moving forward than he’s been so far. 
8. Justin Herbert vs. PIT — Herbert’s average intended air yards per attempt has been below 7.0 in three of the last four games, which might help explain why the upside hasn’t been as high of late. He seems to have hit a bit of a wall here, and it’d be nice to see the Chargers make a point of getting Mike Williams involved more because they’ve missed his big-play abilities during Herbert’s struggles. 
9. Aaron Rodgers @MIN
10. Russell Wilson vs. ARI — All the talk of how much Wilson worked to come back early from his finger injury, and the description of it as nearly “miraculous” may have elided the fact that he might not have been fully ready to return in Week 10. He sure didn’t look right, at the very least. This is why you often want to give players coming back from surgery a get-right game before throwing them in your lineup. Hopefully, Week 11 goes better. 
11. Tua Tagovailoa @NYJ — As Heath Cummings noted in his QB preview for Week 11, Tagovailoa has averaged 23.3 Fantasy points in his four complete games this season. The Dolphins just aren’t really situated to have a run-heavy approach, so Tagovailoa should continue to throw it plenty in a great matchup. 
12. Ryan Tannehill vs. HOU — The only concern here is that Tannehill likely won’t have to throw it much in this one, so you’re hoping Tannehill can have one of those high-efficiency games. Getting A.J. Brown more involved coming off his one-catch Week 10 would be nice. 
13. Derek Carr vs. CIN
14. Cam Newton vs. WAS — When I did my first run through the rankings, Newton came out as QB8. Obviously, I am excited. I had to tamper that excitement just a bit, but I still think Newton is a fine starting option in a great matchup. 
15. Daniel Jones @TB — Jones will hopefully have his full complement of weapons available this week for the first time all season, really, and we saw flashes of really promising things from this passing game early on. They’ll probably have to throw a lot to keep up in this one, so Jones isn’t a bad sleeper. 
16. Kirk Cousins vs. GB
17. Justin Fields vs. BAL — Fields is averaging 57.3 yards per game over the past four games, which is exactly the kind of usage we wanted to see from him all along. He’s still a bit of a work in progress as a passer, and this isn’t a great matchup, but I’m still holding out hope for a big stretch run. 
18. Mac Jones @ATL 
19. Jimmy Garoppolo @JAX
20. Tyrod Taylor @TEN — His first game back from injury was a disaster, but Taylor still had some appeal as a streaming option thanks to his rushing abilities, especially if Tennessee’s pass defense regresses after some surprising good games of late. 
21. Mike White vs. MIA
22. Baker Mayfield vs. DET
23. Matt Ryan vs. NE
24. Taylor Heinicke @CAR

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