2021 NFL Playoff Picture: Here are the projected postseason chances for all 32 teams heading into Week 11

If we learned one thing from Week 10, it’s that the NFL playoff picture can change in an instant, which is something the Ravens, Cardinals, Rams and Raiders all found that out the hard way. 

Last week, all four of those teams were sitting pretty in our playoff projections, but then each of them went out and got upset in Week 10. So how did that impact the NFL playoff picture heading into Week 11? 

That’s a question we’re going to answer right now in this week’s playoff projection. The projections here are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine.com. Oh plugged some numbers into his SportsLine computer this week and simulated the rest of the NFL season, and using those numbers, we’re going to let you know the playoff chances for all 32 teams, plus the projected 14-team playoff field. 

With that in mind, let’s get to this week’s playoff projections. Actually, before we do that, here’s a mock draft that fans of the Jets, Texans and Lions might want to read. The computer is basically giving those three teams a zero percent chance of making the playoffs, so a mock draft might be more exciting to read than this projection if you’re fan of one of those three teams. 

For everyone else, let’s get to the projection. 

Note: Remember, this is a projection based on how we think the rest of the regular season will play out. If you want to see the current playoff standings, be sure to click here.

With that in mind, let’s get to the projections.. 

AFC Playoff Projection

Here’s a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Colts (49.1%), Bengals (33.1%), Raiders (29.1%), Browns (25.6%), Broncos (21.6%), Dolphins (1%), Jaguars (0.0%), Jets (0.0%), Texans (0.0%). 

Note: The Jets, Jaguars and Texans haven’t been eliminated from playoff contention, but they have a zero percent chance of making it because the computer hates them. Actually, the computer doesn’t love or hate, it has no feelings, it just doesn’t think there’s a mathematical chance for either team to make it. 

NFC Playoff Projection

Here’s a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Vikings (35.8%), Eagles (23.9%), Panthers (21.7%), Seahawks (9.8%), Falcons (7.6%), Giants (3.7%), Washington (3.4%), Bears (0.9%), Lions (0%). 

Wild-card round projection

AFC

(7) Steelers at (2) Bills

(6) Chargers at (3) Ravens

(5) Patriots at (4) Chiefs

Bye: Titans 

NFC 

(7) 49ers at (2) Cardinals

(6) Saints at (3) Cowboys

(5) Rams at (4) Buccaneers

Bye: Packers

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