NFL Week 11 odds, picks: Ron Rivera wins in return to Carolina, plus betting on lots of points in Bills-Colts

We knew the regression would come at some point because it’s impossible to avoid it when betting the NFL, and it’s here. After another 1-2 week, I’m now 2-4 over the last two weeks and 17-13 on the season. The good news is I don’t feel I did anything particularly wrong over the last two weeks. It’s a case of the results just not going your way.

For instance, the Patriots beating the Browns 45-7 is not a likely outcome. Any time you see a 1.5-point favorite win by 38, all you can do is tip your cap and move on. If I made any mistake, it was putting too much faith in Russell Wilson coming off his finger injury, but at the same time, it’s hard to predict the worst game of a great player’s career is coming.

So, when you look at it through that lens, last week’s two losses were outlier events. It wasn’t the losses themselves, but how they were delivered. All I can do is continue to trust the process.

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

Packers at Vikings: Vikings +2.5 (-115)

I’m leery of the Packers as road favorites in this spot. First of all, I’m always somewhat hesitant to take a road favorite in a division game due to the familiarity between teams. Still, more than anything, I wonder about Green Bay’s rushing defense. The Packers rank 27th in the NFL in defensive success rate and have struggled against the run. They rank 30th in success rate against the run and 30th in defensive EPA against the run. That’s not a great matchup against Dalvin Cook and this Vikings offense. While the Vikings rush the ball only a little more often than the league average, they get extremely run-heavy in the red zone, rushing the ball 53% of the time (league average is 48.2%). They’re effective with it, too, ranking seventh in the league in red-zone touchdown rate and fourth in goal-to-go conversion rate.

None of which bodes well for a Packers defense that ranks 29th in red-zone efficiency. Now, Minnesota’s defense hasn’t exactly been lights out itself, so this isn’t a situation where the wrong team is favored, but I do believe this to be a matchup in which the Vikings pose a lot more problems for Green Bay than the line suggests.

Prediction: Packers 24, Vikings 23

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Colts at Bills: Over 50 (-110)

In short, this total is giving too much credit to the Buffalo defense and not paying enough respect to other facets of this matchup. The primary facet is the two offenses on display. Buffalo leads the NFL with an impressive 2.7 points scored per possession this season, and Indianapolis isn’t far behind at 2.33 (11th). If we look at the last month of the season, the Colts’ 2.54 points per drive rank third in the NFL while Buffalo’s 2.33 rank seventh. This is all a fancy way of saying that these are two potent offenses, and in the modern game of football, offenses overcome great defenses a lot more often.

Of course, while Buffalo’s defense has been one of the best in the league by any available metric, it doesn’t hurt my confidence knowing the Colts defense is playing in this game, too. While the Colts defense has been mostly average, its struggles in the red zone are hard to ignore. Indianapolis ranks 24th in the league in defensive red-zone efficiency and 26th in goal-to-go efficiency. This means we probably won’t see the Bills settling for too many field goals.

Prediction: Bills 31, Colts 24

Football Team at Panthers: Football Team +3.5 (-110)

Yeah, I’m just not willing to trust Cam Newton as a favorite when he’s fresh off the street. I know he saw snaps last week, but they were in red-zone situations in which he’s thrived during his entire career. I’m not ready to buy that his first game as a starter will go as smoothly when he’s running the entire show. I mean, last week was great, but I do remember the last four years. There’s a reason Cam was available to come “save” the Panthers last week.

Plus, he’ll be going against Ron Rivera, the coach who knows him better than anybody else in the NFL. Rivera knows Cam’s strengths and weaknesses and will be able to exploit them. I love Washington as a live dog this week, but I’m going to take the points to play it safe. There’s no need to tempt fate.

Prediction: Football Team 24, Panthers 17