Why Leonard Fournette is going to run all over the Giants, plus other best bets for Monday

It’s Monday of Thanksgiving week, which means you’re probably checked out from work right now. The only thing on your mind is that long holiday weekend coming your way, and you’d rather it start right now. Don’t worry, you aren’t alone. It happens in workplaces all over the country this week, and it leads to mistakes being made. No big deal!

Anyway, in completely unrelated news, before we get to today’s picks, I wanted to congratulate CBSSports.com NFL writer Jonathan Jones for scoring five touchdowns against Buffalo yesterday. He’s always telling us about how great of an athlete he is, and I’m glad he finally got the chance to show the world. In honor of Jonathan’s big game, we’re going to share a prop bet for Giants vs. Buccaneers tonight that our friends over at SportsLine love: Kadarius Toney Over 41.5 receiving yards (-120).

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• College Football power rankings!
• Colleges are about to spend a lot of money on some underwhelming coaching hires.

OK, you read the rest of tonight’s picks while I double-check to make sure we’ve got everybody’s name right. 

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

🏈Giants at Buccaneers, 8:15 p.m. | TV: ESPN

The Pick: Leonard Fournette Over 63.5 rushing yards (-115): I find myself drawn to the Giants +11 because it’s not often that you find double-digit underdogs in NFL games, and for a good reason. Even the worst NFL teams are still NFL teams, and unless they’re starting somebody like Tim Boyle at quarterback, they’re usually capable of keeping things respectable. The problem is I don’t trust the Giants. Or, more specifically, I don’t trust Daniel Jones.

What I do trust is Tampa Bay’s approach. The Bucs have lost two straight coming into tonight, losing to the Saints in New Orleans, 36-27, in Week 8 and then at Washington, 29-19, last week. I don’t think they’re going to lose three in a row, particularly when they’re back at home. I also expect Tampa to look to get its run game going again, and the Giants are a great team to do it against.

New York ranks 25th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry, 21st in success rate against the run and 30th in defensive EPA against the run. It’s not a good rushing defense. This bodes well for Leonard Fournette, who has averaged 4.94 yards per carry at home this season (where Tampa is 4-0) compared to 3.91 on the road. As the spread suggests, Tampa is likely to lead for most of this game, which means it’ll be looking to eat the clock … and that means more carries for Fournette. More carries means more yards, and more yards means more money for us.

Key Trend: Fournette averages 1.03 yards more per carry at home than on the road.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine’s RJ White is 28-15 ATS in his last 43 picks involving the New York Giants, and he’s got a spread play available for tonight’s game.

💰 The Picks

🏀NBA

Hornets at Wizards, 7 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass

The Pick: Under 216 (-110) — The Wizards might not have the best record in the Eastern Conference anymore (GO BULLS), but they’re still playing well and have one of the best defenses in the NBA. The Wiz rank fourth in defensive rating, which will come in handy against a Charlotte team that ranks 10th in the league in offensive rating.

What’s important to note here is that while the Hornets have an offensive rating of 112.3 at home, it drops to 106.6 on the road, which is where they’ll be tonight.

Furthermore, the Wizards aren’t only stellar defensively, but they’re slow-moving offensively. Washington ranks 25th in the league in pace, and as the home favorite, they should be able to dictate play tonight and slow down a Hornets offense that likes to get out in transition. That will help depress the scoring and keep us under the total.

Key Trend: The under is 8-1 in Washington’s last nine games.

🏀College Basketball

The Citadel at No. 5 Duke, 9 p.m. | TV: ACC Network

The Pick: Duke -26.5 (-110) — Do you want some high-concept thought process? Duke has played five games this season and won all five. In games that weren’t against Kentucky, Duke has won by an average of 27.5 points per game. Those four games all came against teams ranked outside the top 150 by KenPom.

Tonight the Blue Devils are home to face a Citadel team that ranks 200th and hasn’t played anybody. The Citadel is also one of the smallest teams in the country, which is bad news against a Duke team led by the 6’10 Paulo Banchero. Seriously, the tallest guy on The Citadel’s roster who gets minutes is Stephen Clark, and he’s only 6’8.

I can’t help but believe Duke will bully the Bulldogs all night long and coast to an easy victory. So while it’s a large spread, it probably isn’t large enough.

Key Trend: Duke is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The SportsLine Projection Model’s favorite NBA play of the night is on one side of the spread between the Brooklyn Nets and Cleveland Cavaliers.

⚽ Tuesday Champions League Parlay

The Champions League resumes Tuesday, and that means we need to be betting on it. Here’s a parlay that pays +242.

• Barcelona (-155)
• Atalanta (-130)
• Sevilla or Draw (-570)