The Mountain West Conference takes center stage on Thanksgiving afternoon with an intriguing college football matchup. Only two FBS games are set for Thanksgiving, with the Fresno State Bulldogs visiting the San Jose State Spartans in the only afternoon tilt. Fresno State is 8-3 overall and 4-1 in the last five games. San Jose State is 5-6 this season and aiming to stop a two-game losing skid.
Kickoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET in San Jose, Calif. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Bulldogs as 7.5-point favorites on the road, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 52.5 in the latest Fresno State vs. San Jose State odds. Before making any San Jose State vs. Fresno State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 13 of the 2021 season on a 39-25 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has locked in on Fresno State vs. SJSU and just revealed its picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the CFB odds and betting lines for SJSU vs. Fresno State:
- Fresno State vs. San Jose State spread: Fresno State -7.5
- Fresno State vs. San Jose State over-under: 52.5 points
- Fresno State vs. San Jose State money line: Fresno State -290, SJSU +235
- FRES: The Bulldogs are 7-4 against the spread this season
- SJSU: The Spartans are 5-6 against the spread in 2021
Featured Game | San Jose State Spartans vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Why Fresno State can cover
Fresno State is one of the best teams in the Mountain West this season, with metrics that are encouraging on both offense and defense. The Bulldogs are leading the Mountain West in total offense with more than 460 yards per game, and Fresno State is dynamic through the air. Fresno State, led by quarterback Jake Haener, is No. 2 in the Mountain West in passing yards, averaging 328.5 per game, and the Bulldogs are No. 2 in the conference in completion rate (66.1 percent), yards per attempt (8.3) and passing touchdowns (30).
Fresno State is also converting 42 percent of third-down chances, and the Bulldogs are putting up 33 points per game. On defense, Fresno State leads the Mountain West in completion rate allowed at 53.7 percent, and the Bulldogs rank in the top four in total defense, rushing defense and yards allowed per carry. San Jose State is averaging only 21 points per game, second-fewest in the Mountain West, and the Bulldogs are in a favorable position, even on the road, in this matchup.
Why San Jose State can cover
The Spartans are keyed by their defense, with San Jose State allowing only 360.8 yards per game this season. San Jose State is also a top-five team in the conference in rushing defense (134.9 yards allowed per game), yards per carry allowed (3.5), yards per pass attempt allowed (6.7) and sacks (27). Junior linebacker Kyle Harmon leads the Mountain West with 122 tackles, which also ranks second in the nation. The Spartans also have several bright spots on offense.
San Jose State has allowed only 18 sacks this season, third-fewest in the conference, and the Spartans are putting up 4.2 yards per carry. Senior running back Tyler Nevens has 711 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, with senior tight end Derrick Deese Jr. ranking second among MWC tight ends with 44 catches for 687 yards and four touchdowns. Finally, San Jose State is a quality unit on special teams, headlined by top-three averages in punting and net punting.
How to make Fresno State vs. San Jose State picks
The model is going under on the total, projecting 51 combined points. It also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins San Jose State vs. Fresno State? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model on a 39-25 run on its top-rated college football side picks, and find out.
