NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, best bets, predictions for Week 13, 2021: Model backing Colts, Broncos

Divisional matchups abound in the Week 13 NFL schedule, as seven of the league’s games will pit the familiar foes against each other. None of them may be more anticipated than the hottest team in the league, the New England Patriots, visiting the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots have won six straight but are three-point underdogs in the latest Week 13 NFL odds at Caesars Sportsbook. The Bills will come in with extra rest after having won on Thanksgiving, but they’ve alternated wins and losses over their last six games.

Can Buffalo string together back-to-back victories and end the Pats’ winning streak? Or will New England reward those who back it in their Week 13 NFL bets? All of the Week 13 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 13 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,100 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 13 of the 2021 season on an incredible 131-94 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 13 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 13 NFL predictions

One of the model’s strongest Week 13 NFL picks is that the Colts (-8.5) cover the spread against the Texans with points to spare. Indy dominated when these two met in Week 6, when the Colts rolled to a 31-3 victory. Since then, Indianapolis’ only losses are to the eight-win Buccaneers and Titans.

The Colts are 8-4 against the spread this season and 4-1 against the number on the road. Houston has only covered in four of 11 games and its offense may be the worst single unit in all of football. The Texans rank last in points, total yards, yards per play, rushing yards and points per drive. Meanwhile, the Colts are fourth in scoring offense and possess the NFL’s leader in rushing and in touchdowns, Jonathan Taylor.

The model has Indy reaching 30 points for the seventh time in its last eight games, which will be too much for Houston to compete with. The Texans could only muster 14 points against the Jets’ 32nd-ranked defense last week, and the model doesn’t have them doing much better versus Indianapolis. It has the Colts winning by 14 points and covering the spread in well over 60 percent of simulations.

Another one of the model’s Week 13 NFL predictions: The Broncos (+10) cover against the Chiefs at Arrowhead. Kansas City is coming off a bye, while the Broncos are coming off an impressive win against the Chargers in which L.A. was limited to just 13 points. Denver is allowing only 17.8 points per game this season, the third-best mark in the league. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have struggled against elite defenses like what Denver possesses, as Patrick Mahomes and company are 0-3 against the spread versus teams that allow under 21 points per game.

The Chiefs also have a tendency to get lax at times while playing at home, as they are 1-5 against the spread at Arrowhead Stadium. They’ve averaged two turnovers per game at home and Mahomes hasn’t lit up the Broncos over his career. He’s thrown just 10 touchdowns across seven starts against Denver, and the model projects modest numbers due to Denver’s running game controlling the ball. The Broncos are expected to top 130 yards on the ground, keeping Kansas City’s explosive offense on the sideline.

SportsLine’s model has Denver (+10) covering well over 50 percent of the time. With Denver’s rushing attack eating up the clock, the model also says the Under (47.5) hits in well over 50 percent of simulations.

How to make Week 13 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 13 NFL schedule, and it’s calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So which NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,100 since its inception, and find out.

Week 13 NFL odds, spreads, lines

Thursday, Dec. 2

Cowboys at Saints (+4 47.5)

Sunday, Dec. 5

Vikings at Lions (+7, 47)

Cardinals at Bears (+7, 46)

Buccaneers at Falcons (+11, 50.5)

Colts at Texans (+8.5, 46)

Eagles at Jets (+7, 45.5)

Chargers at Bengals (-2.5, 50.5)

Giants at Dolphins (-3, 41.5)

Washington at Raiders (-2.5, 49.5)

Jaguars at Rams (-13, 48)

Ravens at Steelers (+3, 44.5)

49ers at Seahawks (+2.5, 46.5)

Broncos at Chiefs (-10, 47.5)

Monday, Dec. 6

Patriots at Bills (-3, 45)