With so many games and so many contrasting styles, succeeding in your 2021-22 college football bowl confidence pools is all about understanding the matchups. Many players will use the college football spreads from oddsmakers, but that could be a serious challenge because the 2021-22 college football bowl schedule is loaded with games that are expected to be tight. There are a whopping 18 college football bowl games that currently have spreads of a field goal or less, and nobody is a favorite of more than two touchdowns.
That includes a game where both teams could struggle to find motivation after narrowly missing out on the College Football Playoff with No. 5 Notre Dame listed as a 2.5-point favorite at Caesars Sportsbook over No. 9 Oklahoma State in the 2022 Fiesta Bowl. With so many tight spreads, making college football picks and then assigning confidence points is going to be incredibly difficult. Before making any college football predictions for bowl season, be sure to see the bowl confidence pool picks from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters the 2021-22 college football bowl season on a 43-29 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now it has simulated each matchup on the 2021-22 college football bowl schedule 10,000 times and assigned a confidence rating to each game. You can only see all the college football bowl picks over at SportsLine.
Top college football bowl confidence predictions
One of the top 2021-22 college football bowl confidence picks from the model: No. 25 Texas A&M gets the win over No. 17 Wake Forest in the 2021 Gator Bowl on Dec. 31 at 11 a.m. ET. It was a banner year for Dave Clawson and the Demon Deacons, as the program reached 10 wins for the first time since 2006 and won the ACC Atlantic. However, Clawson’s offense sputtered at times down the stretch and even when it was clicking, the defense was mostly bad.
After starting 8-0, Wake Forest lost three of its last five games and the defense gave up 40.6 points per game during that stretch. The Demon Deacons gave up 58 in a loss to North Carolina, 48 in a loss to Clemson and 45 in a loss to Pitt in the ACC Championship Game. Now they’ll be taking on one of the better defenses they’ve played all season and the Aggies have put up at least 34 points on six occasions this year, so they should be able to take advantage of that leaky Wake Forest defense.
The model is predicting that Zach Calzada throws for over 200 yards and a couple of touchdowns while Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane combine for over 170 yards rushing. That’s a big reason why the Aggies win in over 70 percent of simulations with the final score projected at 29-22.
Another one of the bowl confidence predictions the model is high on: Wisconsin gets a decisive win over Arizona State in the 2021 Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 30 at 10:30 p.m. ET. This Big Ten vs. Pac-12 battle features a pair of teams who play fundamentally sound defense but struggle at times offensively. Wisconsin ranks sixth in the nation in scoring defense (16.4) but 86th in scoring offense (25.8) while Arizona State ranks 25th in scoring defense (20.9) but 55th in scoring offense (29.7).
The problem here for Herm Edwards and Arizona State is that the Wisconsin run defense is one of the best in the nation and Arizona State has struggled in games where its rushing attack has been limited. The Sun Devils ran for over 200 yards in six of their eight victories but were limited to under 150 rushing yards in three of their four losses.
Wisconsin hasn’t allowed a single team to run for over 200 yards all season and only Army’s run-heavy offense was able to top 120 yards against the Badgers. The model predicts that the Sun Devils rush for well below 150 yards on Dec. 30 at the Las Vegas Bowl and that’s a big reason why Wisconsin wins outright in over 70 percent of simulations.
How to make college football bowl confidence picks
The model has also made the call on who wins every other bowl game. There are four teams that win at least 75 percent of the time, so you need to go big on those matchups, as well as multiple underdogs that win outright. You can get all the model’s picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins every college football bowl game? And which matchups should you assign the most confidence points to? Visit SportsLine to see the full college football bowl confidence picks, all from the model that is up almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football spread picks over the past five-plus season, and find out.
