Serie A’s title race this season is one of the most exciting in the last decade (you can catch all the Serie A action on Paramount+). Three sides are still fully alive in the battle to win the Scudetto at the end of the season. Inter Milan want to achieve back-to-back titles after that Nerazzurri won last year’s edition under Antonio Conte, while AC Milan are looking to bring back the Scudetto to the other side of the river, eleven years after their last title. And then there is Napoli, a team that hasn’t won it all since the 1989/90 season when Diego Armando Maradona was the star of the club. Odds makers see an exceedingly tight race with Inter at +110, AC Milan at +200 and Napoli at +225 (odds courtesy of Casesars Sportsbook). With seven matches to go (eight for Inter) let’s take a look at five crucial players who could decide the title down the stretch run for these three clubs.
Rafael Leao, AC Milan
Let’s start with Rafael Leao, one of the best Serie A players of the season. The Portuguese striker confirmed his skills and potential over the year and he was fundamental in most of the matches won by Rossoneri this year. The feeling is that he can only improve but already this season he’s shown tremendous growth. In the last match against Bologna Rafael Leao led the match with 0.9 expected goals on a match-high eight shots. His 0.9 expected goals is his highest amount generated this year. He’s definitely a player who is taking his responsibilities, as he leads AC Milan with 141 one-v-one attempts this season, 57 more than 2nd-most of the club, Brahim Diaz.
It’s his ability to carry the ball that truly makes him stand out. He carries the ball an average of 30.97 meters per match, the third most in Serie A. And those tend to be contested carries as well. He’s second in the league, behind only Atalanta’s Luis Muriel at 0.72 carries per 90 minutes involving taking on a player, which means that 20.5% of his carries are contested by defenders, the seventh highest total in Serie A. Every week for Milan, Leao can be found driving forward with the ball at his feet, creating space for himself and others. Players like Zlatan Ibrahimovic might get the spotlight for playing at the point of attack, but it’s Leao’s ability to run with the ball that puts Zlatan under the lights to begin with.
Lautaro Martinez, Inter Milan
It’s no surprise that Argentinian striker Lautaro Martinez is a key player for Inter Milan and Simone Inzaghi. What is surprising is that Martinez has changed his game so thoroughly. Last summer’s transfers meant he lost Achraf Hakimi and Romelu Lukaku who were the two players who provided him the most assists, and now he’s playing alongside Edin Dzeko and has performed well especially in the first part of the season. In the new system Martinez has increased his xG per 90 from 0.53 to 0.77 even while his shot totals have barely moved, going from 3.81 to 3.94.
It’s true that his goals and quality of football had a downfall at the beginning of the new year as the whole team struggled and in 2022 his have come only from the hat trick he scored against Salernitana in Serie A matches. In that way, Lautaro mirrors Inter as a whole. If they find their early season form again they can win the whole thing. If not, they’ll be looking on from the sidelines of the race in the last few weeks.
Victor Osimhen, Napoli
When it comes to strikers Victor Osimhen at Napoli is one of the most important players in Italy. He’s already had an amazing impact this season despite struggling with injuries that forced him out for several weeks last December and January. Osimhen leads Napoli and it is tied for ninth in Serie A with 11 goals this season. Osimhen, has the second most expected goals on the team at 9.8. Lorenzo Insigne leads Napoli with 12.7 xG, but that again is mostly due to injury and the fact that Osimhen doesn’t take penalties. On a per 90 basis, Osimhen’s 0.62 xG not only leads Napoli, but it’s third in the league behind only Ibrahimovic and Atalanta’s Duvan Zapata (among players with over 900 minutes played).
The way Luciano Spalletti helped him to improve and become a key player for this squad is one of the secrets of why Napoli are doing so well this year and they deserve to fight until the end to achieve the dream of bringing back the Scudetto to Napoli. Osimhen makes up 43.8% of Napoli’s non-penatly xG when he’s on the field. That’s an amazingly high number. Only one other player in Serie A, Genoa’s Mattia Destro, is over 40%. If Napoli can nip their two rivals to the Scudetto it will largely be because their Nigerian striker has turned into a super star.
Mike Maignan, AC Milan
AC Milan worked really well last summer to improve their roster and one of the most surprising decisions was to let Gianluigi Donnarumma leave as a free agent after talks over a contract renewal failed and sign Mike Maignan to replace him. The French goalkeeper only conceded one goal in the last five matches and overall this season has been one of the best players in the league so far. At only 26 years old, he will also be a strong goalkeeper for the future as well and AC Milan fans are absolutely in love with him. Milan are a very strong defensive team generally, but Miagnan adds to that by doing more than his fair share between the sticks. He has saved just over three goals more than an average keeper would have this season, a mark that’s the third best in Serie A. In a tight Scudetto race, Maignan getting his finger tips to just a couple more shots than most keepers would, could be the difference between a title, and third place.
Hakah Calhanoglu, Inter Milan
Last summer was full of unexpected moves in Serie A’s transfer window. After Christian Eriksen’s cardia arrest during the Euros left him unable to play for Inter, the team decided to sign Hakan Calhanoglu who was without a team after failing to reach an agreement with AC Milan to extend his contract. The Turkish player immediately became a key player for Simone Inzaghi. Despite some ups and downs, he was very consistent and scored important goals including penalties against AC Milan and Juventus. Creatively, Calhanoglu is 3rd in Serie A with 63 chances created this season and has been involved in 15 goals (seven goals, eight assists) in Serie A this season; among midfielders only Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (18) has been involved in more.