Heat vs. Hawks playoff preview: Trae Young’s tradeoff, Miami’s late-game offense among three things to watch

The Atlanta Hawks defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers in the East’s elimination play-in game on Friday, and this will face the No.1 seed Miami Heat in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Game 1 is set for Sunday. Below is the series schedule followed by three things to watch as the Hawks try to pull an upset and start a second straight surprise postseason run. 

Series Schedule

• Game 1: Hawks @ Heat, Sunday, April 17, 1 p.m. ET, TNT
  
  
• Game 2: Hawks @ Heat, Tuesday, April 19, TBD, TBD
  
  
• Game 3: Heat @ Hawks, Friday, April 22, TBD, ESPN
  
  
• Game 4: Heat @ Hawks, Sunday, April 24, 7 p.m. ET, TNT
  
  
• *Game 5: Hawks @ Heat, Tuesday, April 26, TBD, TBD
  
  
• *Game 6: Heat @ Hawks, Thursday, April 28, TBD, TBD
  
  
• *Game 7: Hawks @ Heat, Saturday, April 30, TBD, TNT
  
  

*If necessary

1. The Trae Young tradeoff

I wrote about this after Atlanta’s play-in victory over Cleveland on Friday: Can Young create enough offense to account for his really bad defense and still leave the Hawks as a big positive during his minutes? I say big positive, and not just a positive, because Miami outclasses Atlanta everywhere on the court … except for Young. He’s the best player in this series. Or at least he’s capable of being that. But the Heat have the next four best players in Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro, so Young’s splits need to be significant. 

This will be difficult with the way Young plays defense. Atlanta was better covering for him in the second half against Cleveland, and at times throughout the season, but if Young is getting beat off the dribble and losing his man off-ball and putting up zero fight over screens, the Heat are going to collapse Atlanta’s defense into a million wide-open 3s with their drive and kick offense. 

Miami led the league in percentage of corner-3 attempts this season, per Cleaning the Glass, and Trae getting eliminated on high ball screens is a recipe for escape passes to Bam Adebayo who can turn 4-on-3 opportunities into those corner 3s all night. 

That said, we know what Trae can do offensively; it’s largely because of Young creating such wide-open looks that Atlanta, in its own right, made 42.3 percent of its corner 3s this year, per CTG, by far the top mark in the league. There may not be any player in the world who creates offense as easily as Young does right now, and we know he’s a guy who gets even better on the big stage. 

As a rough guess, if Trae is going to cost you 30-35 points per game either by way of his own man scoring or indirectly through his teammates having to leave shooters to cover for him, then he has to create 50 points the other way, at least. He’s plenty capable of doing that, but it’s a big ask to do it four times, which is why you shouldn’t be putting the mortgage on a Hawks upset. But maybe just a little bet is warranted. You simply cannot rule out a player as magical as Young has proven to be.

2. Feeling the late-game Heat

If the Hawks can keep games close through three and a half quarters, they could have an advantage in crunch time. Miami’s offense ranked 24th in clutch offense this season, and 21st in fourth quarters overall. Atlanta’s defense bleeds clutch points, so don’t get too crazy with that advantage, but the fact remains that Miami has struggled to create offense, notably in the half-court, late in games — this was especially true over the last six weeks of the season. 

Since March 1, the Hawks registered the fifth-best fourth-quarter offensive rating at 132.3 points per 100 possessions, with a plus-13.6 net rating. Miami, by contrast, scored just 100 points per 100 fourth-quarter minutes after March 1, with a minus-4.7 net rating. 

This isn’t a popular thing to say, but the Heat simply don’t have a true go-to guy down the stretch. Butler might have the “Jimmy Buckets” moniker, but he’s not that guy with his inability to consistently hit jump shots. If he’s getting himself to the line or getting into the paint and finding shooters, that can work, but it’s not inevitable offense like Young provides. The closest thing Miami has to Young is Herro, who makes a ton of tough, self-created shots, but there’s a streakiness baked into that equation. This is Atlanta’s best shot: Keep it close, then win late with Young taking over. 

3. Clint Capela factor

Capela hyperextended his knee in Atlanta’s win over Cleveland on Friday, and his status for Game 1 or the rest of the Miami series is uncertain. There could be cautiously good news for the Hawks on that front:

If Capela can’t go, this forces second-year man Onyeka Okongwu into the starting lineup and Gorgui Dieng into a reserve role. With John Collins likely out for the foreseeable future, this leaves Atlanta extremely thin on bigs against a Miami team that can really hurt you on the offensive glass. 

Capela hasn’t been great defensively this year, which has been disappointing after he was probably the second-biggest reason for Atlanta’s postseason run a year ago behind Young. But he gives the Hawks a puncher’s chance. On any given night he can play at an elite level at the rim and on the boards, and if he’s not getting totally cooked on the perimeter (biting on pump fakes, overreacting to shooters) and not letting rollers get behind him for lobs, he can make the Hawks a much bigger problem. 

Atlanta is already behind the eight-ball in this series. If Capela is out, it would make pulling an upset an almost impossible task.