The stakes just keep rgetting higher. Even after a game that ranked among the most significant the Premier League has seen in recent years, one could make the case that there is more on the line when Manchester City and Liverpool meet on Saturday at Wembley.
Last week, the Premier League title was not quite on the line. This time, one team will lose its shot at immortality. If Liverpool win the unprecedented quadruple is still in sight. Fall short and they can still win a treble but not the treble, the EFL Cup, which Liverpool have already taken home, just lacks the prestige of the world’s oldest cup competitions. Pep Guardiola’s side would also have a shot at matching the Manchester United side of 1999 with a win. Were it to be City who fall short, then there would still be the opportunity for a league and European double, not something to be sniffed at, but a feat that several others have managed before.
If the two thrilling 2-2 draws are anything to go on, it is fair to assume that Liverpool and Manchester City will rise to the occasion. What ought not to be taken for granted is that we will see a similar game. Certainly, that is true of Jurgen Klopp, who expects a significantly better display from his side.
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After so many high-stakes encounters, were there any new wrinkles that might surprise the German or his counterpart in the opposite dugout? “Not just surprise, we think a lot about these kind of games, we have to. I think City were really strong, we were not at our best. I would like to see a game where we are at our best as well. Let’s give it a try.
“Maybe that would be a surprise, all of a sudden we are good,” Klopp added, with a grin twinkling on his face. “There was a lot of good stuff in the game but in a couple of positions we are able to perform on a completely different level. We should give that a try.”
Klopp did not name those positions but it would not take more than a cursory glance at the highlights to spot some of those he might have been eluding to. Despite his fizzing assist for Sadio Mane, Mohamed Salah struggled to force his way into Sunday’s contest. By the standards he has set himself — i.e. one of, if not the, best in the Premier League — he has been off color of late, registering just 0.64 expected goals (xG) across his last four top-flight matches. Take moments like that through ball into account, however, and this seems more like a brief fallow period.
The same might well be said of Fabinho, who has been one of Liverpool’s most reliable performers over recent seasons, a guaranteed 7/10 at the very least on most occasions he takes the pitch. He picked an awkward match in which to drop something of a rick. A player who routinely emerges successful from 30 percent of their pressures was successful in just two of 22 at the Etihad Stadium and won less than half of his duels, all while registering an 80 percent pass completion rate that was the worst he has delivered in meaningful minutes since March 2021.
From the outset, City zeroed in one Fabinho as the target for their pressing and indeed as a player they would run at with the ball at their feet. On both occasions, the exceptional Kevin De Bruyne was the Brazilian’s chief tormentor. It’s no wonder Guardiola described the potential absence of both him and Kyle Walker (whose recovery pace is a vital cog to the defensive machine) as landing his side in “big trouble.”
The Belgian’s off-ball energy typified a City side that were much more willing to harry Liverpool than they had in past meetings. City allowed Liverpool to make 10.9 passes per defensive action. That is hardly the vice-like pressure that they exert on other teams but it was a far cry from the 4-0 win in July 2020 where they let the Reds make an average of 26 passes before hitting the defend button. Even Virgil van Dijk was once rattled by the intensity with which Gabriel Jesus and company were chasing him. On 11 occasions they started their attacking sequences in the final third, the most against this particular opponent in the past five years.
There was something of a role reversal going on at the Etihad. Klopp’s side were in a “playing mood” where they wanted “to play between the lines, through the lines, these kind of things because we control it.” His counterpart, for once, was in an even more playful mood, joking that he “tries to imitate the best teams” after a match in which City had shown a very Liverpool-ish interest in the long pass.
That was not a one-off dalliance either. On average, 6.4 percent of City’s passes against Premier League opponents this season have been what Wyscout terms long. The two occasions on which they have reached double-digit long passes? They were against Liverpool. By and large, these deliveries fall into two different categories. First, there are direct balls into the channel to exploit the space in behind Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson. Then, there’s the one-two punch in which City spread the ball from defense wide to the flanks before then looking to find a runner in more central areas. The latter is something of a Liverpool specialty, now one that Guardiola has pilfered to exploit the spaces behind the Reds’ high defensive line.
To facilitate those, Bernardo Silva drops extremely deep, unlocking his inner Andrea Pirlo with deliveries out to the flanks for Walker and Joao Cancelo to run onto. In their two games this season, City have functioned in possession as something of a 4-2-3-1 with De Bruyne a number 10 who is nearer to his center forward than his midfield. The Belgian has been their chief scorer and shot taker and was at his irrepressible best on Sunday from an early goal to a brilliant late pass that teed up Riyad Mahrez for what could have been the winner.
For all their array of talent, City may find there is no easy way to replace De Bruyne at Wembley if the ankle injury he suffered against Atletico Madrid keeps him sidelined. Bernardo would make for a more creative attacking midfielder than a finisher and moving him up would rob City of his vision in deeper areas. Phil Foden could do the shooting, but after the joy he had against Alexander-Arnold last week should he be the one to move?
Similarly, if Walker is unavailable, City will miss his explosive pace down the flanks both in making ground up on Sadio Mane and stretching the Liverpool defense in behind. He was one of the most profitable recipients of Bernardo’s cross-field balls and as he bombed on so Jesus was free to cut inside and take plenty of shots. It all nearly worked perfectly for Guardiola, who at full time was to be found asking why his side had “left them alive.” Winning the battles in territory, possession, shots and xG did not quite translate into a win on the pitch but play Sunday’s game over and over again and City would end up on the winning side more often than their opponents.
Still, the fact that City, who of late have generally had the better of their great rival when they square up on the football pitch, can’t just roll out the same plan only adds another layer of intrigue to a game that needs no further bolstering. While Klopp just needs last week’s players to do a better job, Guardiola might have to come up with a rather different approach to mask the absence of two key cogs in his machine.
If anyone will enjoy figuring out a new plan to best Liverpool, it is surely the man in the City dugout.
How to watch and odds
- Date: Saturday, April 16 | Time: 10:30 a.m. ET
- Location: Wembley Stadium — London, England
- Live stream: ESPN+
- Odds: Man. City +150; Draw +240; Liverpool +185 (via Caesars Sportsbook)
