Kyle Larson dominated the NASCAR Cup Series in 2021 with 10 wins on his way to a championship, but after NASCAR unveiled its “Next-Gen” design for 2022 in an effort to create greater parity, the playing field has seemingly leveled. There have been eight winners through 10 races and if the NASCAR playoffs were to start right now, familiar names like Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski would be left on the outside looking in. On Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series will head to Dover Motor Speedway for the 2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400, and the one-mile concrete oval will be yet another test for the new car. The NASCAR Dover green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET on FS1 (stream now on FuboTV).
Larson won at Fontana and is seventh in the NASCAR standings, but he is the 4-1 favorite in the 2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 odds from Caesars Sportsbook after leading 417 laps in his last two starts at Dover with a win and a runner-up finish. However, there are seven other drivers on the 2022 NASCAR at Dover odds board at 10-1 or shorter, including Martin Truex Jr. (15-2), Chase Elliott (8-1) and Joey Logano (10-1). Before scouring the 2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Dover predictions, be sure to see the latest 2022 NASCAR at Dover picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure’s model also called Larson’s win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.
In total, it nailed five of Larson’s wins during a historic season and has also gone 12-7 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Then last month it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on their NASCAR picks.
Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR in Dover 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 leaderboard.
Top 2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Ross Chastain, even though he’s a 15-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Dover odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After earning just one top-10 finish in his first 79 career NASCAR Cup Series starts, Chastain showed marked improvement with eight top-10 finishes in 2021.
But now that NASCAR has unveiled the “Next-Gen” car to take away equipment advantages and level the playing field for drivers, Chastain is quickly blossoming into a star. He’s already piled up six top-five finishes this season and is one of only two drivers with multiple wins after his victory at Talladega last week. Chastain finished a career-best 15th at Dover last season and with his newfound confidence, he’s a clear threat at “The Monster Mile.”
And a massive shocker: William Byron, one of the Vegas favorites at 8-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 starting grid. Byron also has two victories this season and will enter Sunday’s NASCAR Dover race sitting third in the standings.
However, the 24-year-old has finished 15th and 18th in his last two starts and been outside the top 10 in four of his seven career starts there in a Cup car. Byron has been competitive at Dover, but doesn’t have a win in 10 career starts at the track scattered over his NASCAR Cup Series (seven), NASCAR Xfinity Series (two) and NASCAR Camping World Truck Series (one) career.
How to make 2022 NASCAR Dover picks
The model is also targeting one other driver with 2022 NASCAR at Dover odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the DuraMAX Drydene 400 2022? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Dover odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson’s wins last season.
2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 odds
Kyle Larson 4-1
Martin Truex Jr. 15-2
Chase Elliott 8-1
William Byron 8-1
Alex Bowman 10-1
Kyle Busch 10-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Joey Logano 10-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Kevin Harvick 15-1
Ross Chastain 15-1
Tyler Reddick 18-1
Christopher Bell 22-1
Chase Briscoe 28-1
Kurt Busch 35-1
Austin Dillon 50-1
Daniel Suarez 60-1
Brad Keselowski 60-1
Austin Cindric 60-1
A.J. Allmendinger 100-1
Erik Jones 100-1
Aric Almirola 100-1
Bubba Wallace 150-1
Chris Buescher 150-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 200-1
Cole Custer 200-1
Ryan Preece 200-1
Justin Haley 250-1
Harrison Burton 300-1
Ty Dillon 500-1
Michael McDowell 500-1
Todd Gilliland 1000-1
Corey Lajoie 2500-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
