I’m always thankful for the mailbag questions I get on Twitter but you guys really knocked it out of the park this week. We’ve got fabulous questions about Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Elijah Moore. But I won’t lie, I’m a big fan of the spicy questions, and we may have gotten our spiciest yet about a second-year running back. Let’s start there.
Sell high on Najee Harris?
There is a meme that goes around every so often about Dynasty players and how as soon as someone does something special we’re done with them for someone younger and less proven. I laugh every time, and also feel a bit convicted because it’s true. And this question appears to fit that meme to a tee. But also, I’m 100% on board.
Harris received 381 touches in his rookie year and turned them into 1,667 yards and 10 touchdowns. Only Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler scored more PPR Fantasy points. So why in the world would we want to sell that?
Harris was a bit of a compiler last year. Both his 3.9 yards per carry and his 5.0 yards per target were below average. And the fact that he played 17 games makes his full-season numbers more impressive than he was per game. He was RB8 per game and he was closer to RB19 than he was to RB2. So while volume is king, he was highly dependent on it. And he’s already talked about how he won’t be on the field as much in 2022. I also have serious concerns about whether the team will throw as many passes to running backs now that Ben Roethlisberger is gone.
You might be thinking “he’s a second-year running back, how much could an RB2 season hurt his value. Well, he’s already 24 years old. D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, and Cam Akers are all younger than him. And many people are valuing him as THE RB2 in Dynasty right now. I have him at No. 6.
So yes, I’d absolutely be looking to sell high.
Valuing the aging stars at running back
This is one of the biggest storylines in Dynasty. I’ve written about it before, but not recently. When you go back and look at my Dynasty running back rankings from September of last year, and look at their ages, you can see the tsunami coming. Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Nick Chubb, and Austin Ekeler were all in my top 15 back then. They’ll all be 26 or 27 years old when the season starts. Some of them have already taken a massive hit to their Dynasty value. Most of the rest will very soon.
That being said, McCaffrey does still have more upside than any other running back in Fantasy Football so I’m okay with taking him in Round 1 of a startup. Ekeler and Joe Mixon are the only other backs in this age range I would take in Round 2. Dalvin Cook is fine in Round 3. But remember, my Dynasty rankings are all for PPR leagues. In a non-PPR startup I could absolutely see Chubb sneaking into Round 2. The most important thing is that if you invest in these guys in a startup you should alter the rest of your draft strategy toward win-now. Don’t draft Mccaffrey and Cook and then surround them with rookies who need time to develop.
As for touches, I mostly think that guys who have seen big workloads are positive because they’ve proven they can handle big workloads. I downgrade for age, but not touches.
How a champion should handle a late 2022 1st
I should start this with a disclaimer. I believe the purpose of a Dynasty league is to try to build a Dynasty. Flags fly forever and if I get one, I’m pushing for another. Hard.
I don’t believe there is likely to be a receiver available at 1.12 that is going to help you win a title this year so I would be targeting veterans with that pick. That may not be easy this year, so you may need to throw in your second as well. I would start by shooting for Brandin Cooks, Mike Williams, or Keenan Allen. If that failed I would drop down to the Michael Thomas or Allen Robinson range. If I really thought he’d push me over the top I would settle for DeAndre Hopkins.
Mike Williams over Keenan Allen?
Speaking of Williams and Allen…
In Dynasty I already prefer Williams, and the answer to the question is yes. I do believe Williams will overthrow Allen as the team’s No. 1 receiver. I’m just not sure it will totally happen this year. Then again, depending on how you define it, Williams may have done it last year. He had more receiving yards, touchdowns, and non-PPR Fantasy points than Allen last year. He even outscored him in 0.5 PPR. But Allen saw 28 more targets and caught 30 more passes which gave the veteran the edge in PPR and gives him a claim that he still holds the crown.
Since then Allen has turned 30 years old and Williams signed a $60 million dollar extension. The changing of the guard is in process, but in full PPR leagues, I expect Allen to hold on for one more season.
Ranking Elijah Moore versus the 2022 class
This is such a tough one. I mean, technically I could just give a link to you my rankings. That would be the easy way out. They show Moore fourth in the 2022 class, behind Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Treylon Burks just barely ahead of Jameson Williams, Chris Olave, and Jahan Dotson. But that would imply a level of confidence I just don’t have.
Moore was so impressive in that five-game stretch last year, but it was just a five-game stretch and he did struggle to stay on the field the rest of the season. The fact that the Jets used the 10th overall pick on Wilson after failing to trade for Tyreek Hill does not give me confidence that they view Moore as a No. 1 receiver either. And I’m really uncomfortable with whether Zach Wilson will develop into a quarterback who can support multiple Fantasy starters at wide receiver.
It’s going to be a really big season for most of that class including Moore, DeVonta Smith, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Rashod Bateman. They all rank between 19 and 29 in my current Dynasty rankings. I would not view any of them as safe Dynasty assets, but there’s immense upside with all four.
