Fantasy Football Week 5 Start ‘Em & Sit ‘Em: Surprising James Robinson has Texans-size opening

Thursday night’s game between the Colts and Broncos was expected to be a matchup of two of the best running backs in the NFL with Jonathan Taylor vs. Javonte Williams. Now, we’re left with Nyheim Hines vs. Melvin Gordon. That’s not the headline you were hoping for when this game was put on the schedule.

Taylor is out this week with an ankle injury, and Williams is out for the season with a torn ACL. The replacements in Hines and Gordon can certainly put on a show, and both are worth using as sleepers in the majority of leagues.

I wrote about Gordon below, and he’s expected to be the lead running back for the Broncos, ahead of Mike Boone and Latavius Murray. Gordon could be looking at 20-plus carries, and that would make him at least a flex option in most leagues against the Colts. Indianapolis has a good run defense, but four running backs have already scored at least 12 PPR points against the Colts.

For Hines, we’ll see what Indianapolis does with Deon Jackson and potentially Phillip Lindsay sharing touches, but Hines should still get the majority of the work. He’s worth using as a flex play in PPR and potentially all formats.

He has 10 games over the past three seasons with double digits in touches, and he scored at least 13 PPR points in six games over that span. And he only failed to score at least 10 PPR points in those outings just once.

Taylor missed one game during that period of time in Week 12 in 2020 against Tennessee, and Hines had 10 carries for 29 yards, along with eight catches for 66 yards in that contest. We’d all love to see that type of stat line again.

The Broncos have allowed the past two opposing running backs to gain at least 100 total yards in Jeff Wilson and Josh Jacobs, and Jacobs went off against Denver for 28 carries for 144 yards and two touchdowns, along with five catches for 31 yards on six targets. Hines doesn’t have that upside, but he’s worth using as at least a flex given this opportunity with Taylor out.

I was wrong about James Robinson. I expected him to be sluggish coming off last year’s Achilles injury, at least early in the season, and Robinson would take a back seat to Travis Etienne. The exact opposite has happened.

Robinson has looked amazing this year. He scored a touchdown in each of the first three games against Washington, Indianapolis and the Chargers, and he ran for 100 yards against Los Angeles in Week 3. He already has three runs of at least 22 yards.

It hasn’t been perfect, and he struggled in Week 4 against Philadelphia with eight carries for 29 yards and no catches. But he should make up for that performance this week against the Texans — in a big way.

Houston has allowed the most Fantasy points to opposing running backs this year. Four running backs have at least 11 PPR points against the Texans, including Jonathan Taylor (27 PPR points), Khalil Herbert (30 PPR points) and Austin Ekeler (34 PPR points). Based on the sliding scale, Robinson could be headed for a career day.

In two career home games against the Texans, Robinson has scored at least 15 PPR points in each outing. He has top-10 upside this week, and it’s been awesome to watch Robinson in his comeback. I’m glad I was wrong about him this year, and hopefully he can stay healthy all season.

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Vikings (vs. CHI)

The Vikings defense hasn’t been great the past three games, allowing at least 24 points in each outing against Philadelphia, Detroit and New Orleans. But things should improve this week against the Bears. Chicago has scored 12 points or less in two of the past three games, and the Bears have multiple turnovers in the past two weeks against the Texans and Giants. Justin Fields was also sacked 11 times over that span. This should be a breakout game for the Vikings DST at home in Week 5.

• Jaguars (vs. HOU)
• Titans (at WAS)
• Dolphins (at NYJ)

Steelers (at BUF)

The Steelers defense had four interceptions, seven sacks, a fumble recovery and a touchdown in Week 1 against the Bengals. They also lost T.J. Watt (pectoral) in that game, which has been a problem. Since then, the Steelers have allowed 64 points in three games against the Patriots, Browns and Jets with only three sacks and two turnovers. It shows how much this defense misses Watt, and the Steelers are 0-7 when he doesn’t play. Now, the Steelers head to Buffalo to face Josh Allen and the No. 5 scoring offense in the NFL. This is an easy week to fade the Steelers DST in all leagues.