With my picks in the toilet, my prop picks came alive this week. I went 9-1 with my props Monday night on CBS Sports HQ.
So I have that going for me.
Too bad my picks have been going the other way, rotten smelling like a backed-up sewer. I went 6-9-1 against the spread with my expert picks last week and 2-3 with my best bets as part of the Pick Six Podcast. I also went 10-6 straight up.
That brings my season records to 33-43-4 ATS, 43-36-1 straight up and 14-13 with my Best Bets.
Don’t worry, the prop king will rub off on my picks this week. I will get back on track. I promise.
Washington Commanders (PK) at Chicago Bears
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
Featured Game | Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders
This is the dog game of the week. Is it really on national television? Both teams have issues, but the Bears did show some signs of life on offense last week. Even so, Washington is the better team. Look for the Washington defense to get the best of it in this one.
Pick: Commanders 21, Bears 13
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (+5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured Game | Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers stayed in West Virginia this week after beating Carolina on the road. That will cut down on the wear-and-tear of traveling. The Falcons came back last week against the Bucs, showing some real fight again. They have done so in every game they’ve played and will do so here again. The Falcons hang around.
Pick: 49ers 23, Falcons 19
New England Patriots (+3) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured Game | Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots
There is a chance Mac Jones could be back at quarterback for the Patriots. If not, it’s Bailey Zappe again. The way the Browns defense is playing, it might not matter. Cleveland will use its running attack again to move the football, but the New England defense is coming off a shutout. I think the Patriots will stay close in this game — no matter who plays quarterback.
Pick: Browns 27, Patriots 26
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers (-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured Game | Green Bay Packers vs. New York Jets
The Packers lost to the Giants last week in London, but being back home against the Jets will be a chance to get back on track. The Jets have been a surprise team, but this is a tough spot. Look for the Green Bay defense, which hasn’t played as well, to do so here. The Packers win it big.
Pick: Packers 32, Jets 20
Jacksonville Jaguars (+2) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured Game | Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars shut out the Colts in Week 2, so they know they can stop them. But the Jaguars are coming off a bad loss to the Texans, while the Colts beat the Broncos last Thursday, which means they are rested. Even so, the Jaguars seem to have their number. Jacksonville wins it behind their defense.
Pick: Jaguars 24, Colts 17
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured Game | Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Dolphins should have Teddy Bridgewater back to play quarterback against his former team. That will be a big boost to the offense. The Vikings could be impacted by the heat. But I think this will come down to Minnesota’s offense against a bad Miami defense. The Vikings win it behind Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson.
Pick: Vikings 30, Dolphins 24
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured Game | New Orleans Saints vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have lost three tough games in the final seconds and are playing a second straight road game after losing to the Ravens. The Saints won last week behind Taysom Hill, but can they count on that every week? The Saints defense has been a big disappointment, so Joe Burrow will return to Louisiana and get a victory because of it.
Pick: Bengals 30, Saints 21
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (+5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured Game | New York Giants vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Giants are 4-1 and this is another prove-it game. If they can limit the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, they can win this game. It will be former Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale trying to slow him down. I think he does. The Giants will also run the ball. This is close, but the Ravens will win it late.
Pick: Ravens 23, Giants 20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured Game | Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This will be Kenny Pickett’s first home start. It won’t be easy against that Tampa Bay defense. He did some good things at Buffalo, but that game was over early. This one won’t be. The Bucs will pull away late, but Pickett and the offense will be better.
Pick: Bucs 30, Steelers 21
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (-10.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured Game | Los Angeles Rams vs. Carolina Panthers
With Matt Rhule fired, Steve Wilks takes over as the Panthers head coach. Sometimes that can bring some life to a team. But the Rams are just as desperate as the Panthers for a win. They are the better team, and that will show up here as Matthew Stafford finally has a good day.
Pick: Rams 29, Panthers 16
Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured Game | Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Seahawks have been fun to watch on offense as Geno Smith is off to a fast start. But the defense has been terrible. The Arizona offense has had issues this season, but this is a good spot to get right. I think they will. This will be a shootout. Kyler Murray will get the best of the Seattle defense.
Pick: Cardinals 34, Seahawks 30
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
This is the game of the week, and maybe the year. Both teams have high-flying offenses. The shootout between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will be a treat to watch. Will either be stopped? I doubt it. Let’s hope this is a classic like their playoff game last January, which was won by the Chiefs in overtime. The final 13 seconds cost the Bills a chance to get to the Super Bowl. This time, they win it late.
Pick: Bills 37, Chiefs 31
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)
Featured Game | Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
This is one of the best games this week. The Cowboys defense against the Eagles offense will be what decides this. The Cowboys pass rush is fierce, but the Eagles can run the ball to negate it and Jalen Hurts can move. This could be Dak Prescott back for Dallas, but Cooper Rush has played well if he isn’t. Even so, the Eagles at home are the pick.
Pick: Eagles 27, Cowboys 20
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, FuboTV)
Featured Game | Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
The Chargers are back home after two straight victories on the road. They played well on offense on the road, but the defense continues to have issues. The good news is the Denver offense has more. Russell Wilson has been bad and he’s hurting some. That matters. Justin Herbert gets the best of it.
Pick: Chargers 25, Broncos 17
