2023 MLB playoffs: Four things Astros must do to come back in ALCS vs. Rangers, including beating Max Scherzer

Two games into the American League Championship Series, the defending World Series champion Houston Astros are down 2-0 in the best-of-seven series, and now go on the road for Games 3 and 4, and potentially 5. The Texas Rangers used stellar starting pitching and timely hitting to takes Games 1 and 2 at Minute Maid Park. Here’s how you can watch Game 3 on Wednesday.

“It’s huge. The momentum is in our favor, but can’t let the guard down,” Rangers righty Nathan Eovaldi said about the 2-0 series lead. ” … We bring this momentum back home to Arlington. Our fans were outstanding the last game, the first postseason game we had back home against Baltimore. Hopefully they’ll be bringing that same energy and we’ll be able to keep momentum going.”

The Rangers are the 28th team in MLB history to take a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven series by winning Games 1 and 2 on the road. According to YES Network researcher James Smyth, 24 of the previous 27 teams went on to win the series, including 15 sweeps. Here are the three exceptions:

• 1985 World Series: Kansas City Royals beat St. Louis Cardinals in seven games
• 1986 World Series: New York Mets beat Boston Red Sox in seven games
• 1996 World Series: New York Yankees beat Atlanta Braves in six games

The Astros will try to become only the fourth team to erase a 2-0 series deficit after dropping the first two games in their own ballpark. The good news is they should feel right at home in Globe Life Field. The Astros went 6-1 in Arlington during the regular season and outscored the Rangers 63-32 in the seven games. They swept the Rangers at Globe Life Field last month. The final scores: 13-6, 14-1, 12-3.

Although the 2-0 deficit is daunting, the Astros have championship pedigree, and they won’t have to face Jordan Montgomery or Eovaldi in the next two games. They can also take some pride in battling back to make Game 2 a one-run game after falling behind 4-0 in the first inning. That said, pride and $19 will get you unbelievable brisket at Gatlin’s BBQ. A loss is still a loss.

Here are four things that must happen for the Astros to have a chance to erase this 2-0 series deficit and win their third consecutive AL pennant.

1. Get a good start from Javier

This goes without saying. The most straightforward way to make a comeback is getting a good to great start in Game 3, then building off that. Cristian Javier had an up and down regular season, though he was effective in his Division Series start, holding the Minnesota Twins to one hit in five scoreless innings and striking out nine.

Javier did walk five in those five innings, and that’s probably not something he can get away with against this Rangers offense. With all due respect to the Twins, this Texas lineup is a powerhouse and it’s pretty close to firing on all cylinders right now. Javier faced the Rangers just once during the regular season and it did not go well. Not at all.

Following that game, Javier had a 4.34 ERA and a .247/.300/.434 opponent’s batting line through 17 starts, and pitching coach Josh Miller told The Athletic, “We’re going to go back to the drawing board and, hopefully, get him right.” In 14 starts after that, Javier had a 4.84 ERA with a .217/.320/.411 opponent’s batting line. Things never really got on track.

Last postseason Javier was a force — he’s allowed two hits in his last three postseason starts (16 1/3 innings), including this year’s ALDS — and that ability is still in there somewhere. The Astros badly need to see it in Game 3. Justin Verlander was great in Game 1 and Framber Valdez didn’t make it through three innings in Game 2. To make a comeback, Javier pitching well is imperative.

2. Jump on Scherzer early

And get into that Texas bullpen. Max Scherzer will start Game 3 in his first game action since Sept. 12. He missed the last five weeks with a teres major muscle strain near his right shoulder, and, at the time of the injury, GM Chris Young said it was “unlikely” Scherzer would pitch in the postseason. The three-time Cy Young winner is back though, and starting Game 3.

“He’s ready. That’s why he’s starting Game 3,” Rangers manager Bruce Bochy said on Tuesday. “A few days ago back home he threw 69 pitches to hitters and he came out of that fine. And during that time he maintained his stamina stuff.”

An extended simulated game is a good sign, but the postseason is a different animal, and there’s always a chance Scherzer is rusty given the long layoff. If Scherzer is amped up or otherwise out of sorts, the Astros really need to jump on him early, and get into that shaky Rangers bullpen. Scherzer’s two regular season starts against the Rangers were a mixed bag:

 That June 19 start came when Scherzer was still with the Mets and the Sept. 6 start was the start before he exited with the teres major muscle injury that sidelined him these last five weeks. The Astros have seen Scherzer recently, and really, who knows how effective he’ll be after the layoff? If he’s not himself in any way, Houston must take advantage.

Beating up on Scherzer early in Game 3 helps two ways. First, it boosts Houston’s chances of winning Game 3 (duh). And second, the sooner the Astros get Scherzer out of the game, the sooner they get into the Rangers’ shaky bullpen. Games 3-5 will be played on three consecutive days. Wearing the relievers down in Game 3 can help in Game 4 and/or 5.

Because Montgomery and Eovaldi pitched deep into Games 1 and 2, the Astros have yet to see the weak underbelly of the Texas bullpen. Bochy has been able to lean on Aroldis Chapman, José Leclerc, and Josh Sborz. The Astros need to force Bochy to use his others relievers at some point, or use his trusted guys so much that they run out of gas and lose effectiveness.

3. Altuve, Tucker, and others have to start hitting

Jumping on Scherzer and getting into the bullpen is easier said than done. Astros other than Yordan Alvarez haven’t done a whole lot through six postseason games. Well, no, that’s not fair to José Abreu, who hit three homers in the final two games of the ALDS, but as a whole, Alvarez was carried the load for Houston. Look at this:

Alvarez has scored or driven in 12 of Houston’s 24 runs this postseason, or 50%. For comparison, Bryce Harper has scored or driven in 33% of the Philadelphia Phillies‘ runs, and Corey Seager has scored or driven in 23% of the Rangers’ runs. Yordan is a one-man army right now. He’s great — great — but one player can only take you so far in this sport.

Jose Altuve and Kyle Tucker are the biggest laggers on offense through six postseason games. Altuve is hitting .160/.192/.280 with a 42.0% chase rate. He’s swung at pitches out of the zone nearly as often as he’s swung at pitches in the zone (52.6%). Tucker is 2 for 22 with three walks in the postseason. That’s a .091/.200/.091 slash line.

“They’re terrible,” Tucker told The Athletic about his at-bats. “I feel fine, just my swing is not there. I haven’t done anything with any of the pitches. It’s been tough.”

Altuve and Tucker almost seem slump-proof because they make so much contact and have such direct-to-the-ball swings, yet here they are in October, struggling in the most important games of the year. This sport is complicated, but things are very simple for the Astros right now. Either Altuve and Tucker hit and the Astros will have a chance in the ALCS, or they don’t and they won’t.

4. Get lucky

There’s no shame in asking the baseball gods for a little help. Remember when I noted three teams came back to win a best-of-seven after dropping Games 1 and 2 at home? Well, the 1985 Royals benefited from Don Denkinger’s blown call and the 1986 Mets benefited from Bill Buckner’s error. Sometimes you just need to catch a break. A borderline ball/strike call going your way, a line drive landing just fair instead of just foul, an opposing defender airmailing a crucial throw, whatever it takes. The Astros are very good and sometimes good isn’t enough. They could use a little luck in the rest of the ALCS.