OK, I give up. I am waving the white flag. There is no winning this battle.
The NFL wins.
I just can’t get a handle on picking games each week. This season is crazy. Is anybody doing well?
I went 5-8 against the spread last week in our CBSSports.com expert picks and that tied for second-best for the week among our group. Gross. Ryan Wilson did the unthinkable. He actually went 0-13 ATS.
It wasn’t like my straight-up picks were much better. I went 6-7 straight up. My season records are now 62-44 straight up and 50-53-3 ATS. So much for the idea of a big Week 7.
But, like any beaten warrior, it’s time to get back up and win the fight, starting this week. Maybe it’s time to use the old dart-board method. Or maybe put the teams in a hat. Something, anything, to get it going.
I won’t give up. I can’t give up.
But right now, I am a beaten man when it comes to picking NFL games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-8.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
Neither team has looked great the past two games, but the Bills won one of those. The Bucs offense has struggled the past two weeks, while the Bills have defensive issues with all the injuries. Even so, I think the Bills will get back on track in front of the home crowd. Josh Allen has a big game.
Pick: Bills 28, Bucs 14 (Result: Bills 24, Bucs 18)
Houston Texans (-3) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is a game featuring the first two picks in the draft, Bryce Young for the Panthers and C.J. Stroud for the Texans. Young has struggled, while Stroud has played well. Both teams are coming off a bye, but the Texans are the better team. They take it on the road.
Pick: Texans 23, Panthers 17
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Cowboys are coming off a bye, while the Rams lost a tight one to the Steelers on Sunday. This is a tough game on the road against a rested team for the Rams. Dallas seemed to right things in its last game against the Chargers and that will carry over here. Cowboys win it.
Pick: Cowboys 27, Rams 17
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (+1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Vikings have won two straight to right things and impressed in beating the 49ers Monday night. But this is a division game on the road on a short week, which is always a challenge. The Packers haven’t played well at all in a few weeks, but this is the game to get it turned around. The Packers slow down Kirk Cousins and take it.
Pick: Packers 24, Vikings 21
If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet.
New Orleans Saints (+1) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Saints are coming off a Thursday loss to the Jaguars where the offense struggled. The Colts scored more than expected against the Browns, but they make too many mistakes. That will be the difference here. The Saints defense will get the best of Gardner Minshew.
Pick: Saints 23, Colts 18
New England Patriots (+9.5) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Patriots are coming off an impressive home victory over the Bills where Mac Jones showed some life. The Dolphins lost to the Eagles Sunday night in a game where the offense scored just one touchdown. New England slowed Miami in the first meeting. That same strategy will keep them in this game. It’s closer than you think.
Pick: Dolphins 26, Patriots 21
New York Jets (-2.5) at New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Giants played a nice defensive game in beating the Commanders, while the Jets are coming off a bye. They seemed to fix things before the bye. This should be a low-scoring defensive game with the offense that makes the big mistake likely costing its team the game. I say that’s the Giants. The Jets front will force it.
Pick: Jets 21, Giants 16
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Jaguars have won four straight and will be rested some after playing last Thursday. Pittsburgh has played better on offense the past few games, which it had to do. Both defenses have played well, but I will go with the better offense. Jacksonville takes it as Trevor Lawrence outplays Kenny Pickett.
Pick: Jaguars 24, Steelers 20
Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Titans are a mess right now, while the Falcons are in first place after beating Tampa Bay on the road last week. The Titans might be leaning towards giving rookie Will Levis his first start of his career here. That’s a tough challenge against a solid defense, but Levis is going to be a good player. That starts here. Upset special.
Pick: Titans 21, Falcons 20
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (+6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Commanders have major issues protecting quarterback Sam Howell. That’s never a good thing against the Eagles front. The Eagles offense got on track against Miami Sunday night, which will be a challenge for a Washington defense that has struggled. Even so, I think the Commanders keep it within the number, but the Eagles win it.
Pick: Eagles 27, Commanders 24
Cleveland Browns (+3) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Browns are playing on the road for a second straight week, but after a not-so-good showing on defense last week, I think that changes here. Even if it’s P.J. Walker at quarterback, I think the defense finds a way to limit the Seattle offense and pull off the upset.
Pick: Browns 23, Seahawks 16
Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Ravens are playing as well as anybody in the league right now. Lamar Jackson and the passing game have it finally rolling, while the defense leads the NFL in points allowed. That’s a tough challenge for an undermanned Arizona team that has been ordinary the past few weeks. The Ravens win it big.
Pick: Ravens 30, Cardinals 13
Kansas City Chiefs (-8) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
These two met a few weeks ago in Kansas City and the Chiefs won that game, but it wasn’t easy. The Denver defense played well. That unit has made strides. Even so, the Chiefs offense got it cranked up last week. They will here as well. Chiefs take it behind another big Patrick Mahomes game.
Pick: Chiefs 30, Broncos 17
Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The 49ers have lost two straight games and the defense struggled against Kirk Cousins. Now they get a good Bengals offense that is coming off a bye, which is good for Joe Burrow and his calf. I think Burrow and the Bengals offense will be able to keep this one close.
Pick: 49ers 27, Bengals 24
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
The Bears looked much improved last week against the Raiders with Tyson Bagent played a solid game. But this is a tough trip against a good team that needs this game in the worst way. The Chargers have too much talent to keep losing games. This is where it ends. Chargers big.
Pick: Chargers 33, Bears 19
Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions (-8)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo)
The Raiders are playing consecutive road games after looking awful in losing to the Bears last week. The Lions were blown out on the road last week by the Ravens. Detroit bounces back in a big way here.
Pick: Lions 31, Raiders 17
