MLB’s second ever amateur Draft Lottery will take place Tuesday night at the Winter Meetings in Nashville. MLB and the MLBPA agreed to the lottery as part of the current collective bargaining agreement in an effort to curb tanking and anti-competitive behavior in general. The top six picks are now awarded through the lottery.
The Pirates won the first Draft Lottery last offseason and received the No. 1 pick despite finishing with the league’s third-worst record. Pittsburgh took LSU righty Paul Skenes with the No. 1 selection. The Twins also won big on lottery day. They moved up from No. 13 to No. 5. The Athletics, the lottery’s biggest loser, got bumped back from No. 2 to No. 6.
2024 MLB Draft Lottery streaming info
Date: Tuesday, Dec. 5 | Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
TV channel: MLB Network | Live stream: Fubo (try for free)
Fubo’s holiday offer just kicked off! For a limited time, new subscribers can save $40 on Fubo’s Pro, Elite and Premier plans ($20 off the first and second months).
Here now is everything you need to know going into Tuesday’s Draft Lottery.
Odds for No. 1 pick
All 18 non-postseason teams have a chance at the No. 1 selection through the lottery, though the worst teams have the best odds. Here are the odds for the No. 1 pick:
| Team | No. 1 pick odds | Team | No. 1 pick odds |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Athletics (50-112) |
18.3% |
Tigers (78-84) |
1.6% |
|
Royals (56-106) |
18.3% |
Red Sox (78-84) |
1.2% |
|
Rockies (59-103) |
18.3% |
Giants (79-83) |
1.0% |
|
White Sox (61-101) |
14.7% |
Reds (82-80) |
0.9% |
|
Cardinals (71-91) |
8.3% |
Padres (82-80) |
0.7% |
|
Angels (73-89) |
6.1% |
Yankees (82-80) |
0.6% |
|
Mets (75-87) |
4.3% |
Cubs (83-79) |
0.4% |
|
Pirates (76-86) |
3.0% |
Mariners (88-74) |
0.2% |
|
Guardians (76-86) |
2.0% |
Nationals (71-91) |
0.0% |
The teams with the three worst records are each given identical odds for the No. 1 pick and ties are broken using the previous year’s record (i.e. 2022). That is why the Pirates have better odds than the Guardians, the Tigers have better odds than the Red Sox, and the Reds have better odds than the Padres, who have better odds than the Yankees.
The draft lottery results (first 18 picks) will be announced by country music star Brad Paisley on MLB Network.
Why do the Nationals have 0% odds?
Washington had the fifth-worst record in baseball this season but the Nats are not eligible for the lottery because they had the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft. Teams that pay into revenue sharing rather than receive revenue sharing, like the Nationals, are ineligible for a lottery selection in consecutive drafts. Furthermore, those teams can not pick higher than No. 10 overall. The Nationals will pick No. 10 next year unless the four teams with a worse record (A’s, Rockies, Royals, White Sox) get bumped out of the top six through the lottery. The odds of that happening are not zero, but very close to it.
Lottery picks are protected from CBT penalties
The Mets, Padres, and Yankees all missed the postseason this year and are lottery-eligible despite running payrolls well north of the $273 million, which is the third competitive balance tax penalty tier. Teams over the that third CBT threshold have their first selection in the next year’s draft moved back 10 spots. Lottery picks are protected from CBT penalties, however. So, if the Mets, Padres or Yankees move into the top six through the lottery, the CBT penalty would be applied to their second selection. Those three teams would keep a top-six pick. Otherwise their top pick gets moved back 10 spots.
The rest of the first round
Previously, the draft order was set by the reverse order of the previous year’s standings. It was nice and easy. Now the top six picks are determined through the lottery, the remaining 12 non-postseason teams then pick in reverse order of the standings (picks 7-18), and the 12 postseason teams pick in order of their finish (picks 19-30).
Furthermore, within each “tier” of postseason finish, those 12 postseason teams pick in reverse order of the standings, with teams that receive revenue sharing picking before teams that pay into revenue sharing. Got all that? Here is the tentative order for the No. 19-30 picks:
Wild Card Series losers
19. Marlins (84-78, received revenue sharing)
20. Brewers (92-70, received revenue sharing)
21. Rays (99-63, received revenue sharing)
22. Blue Jays (89-73, paid revenue sharing)
Division Series losers
23. Twins (87-75, received revenue sharing)
24. Orioles (101-61, received revenue sharing)
25. Dodgers (100-62, paid revenue sharing)
26. Braves (104-58, paid revenue sharing)
Championship Series losers
27. Phillies (90-72, paid revenue sharing)
28. Astros (90-72, paid revenue sharing, had better record that Phillies in 2022)
World Series loser
29. Diamondbacks (84-78)
World Series winner
30. Rangers (90-72)
This order, again, is tentative because the Mets, Padres, and Yankees could have their first round picks moved back 10 spots because of their CBT status. For example, if the Yankees do not move into the top six through the lottery, they are likely to have the No. 16 pick through reverse order of the standings. That pick would then be pushed back to No. 26. Picks 19-30 could shift around slightly.
The rest of the draft
Only the first round is set using the lottery. The order of rounds 2-20 is the reverse order of this year’s standings, so the MLB-worst A’s will have the first pick of the second round regardless of how the lottery shakes out. There are also free agent compensation and competitive balance rounds scattered throughout the draft. Those additional picks will be determined throughout the offseason. Tuesday night’s lottery will set the first round order. Everything after that is TBD as the offseason plays out.
