The final event for the UFC in 2023 takes place on Saturday in a loaded pay-per-view card from inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Welterweight champion Leon Edwards will make the second defense of his title in the main event of UFC 296 when he welcomes two-time former title challenger Colby Covington. In the co-headliner, newly crowned flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja takes on Brandon Royval in a rematch of their 2021 meeting.
In addition, a pair of top welterweight prospects fill out the main card in separate bouts as Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry each look to make a leap into true title contention at 170 pounds.
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As we close in on UFC 296, let’s take a closer look at the biggest storylines to watch for.
1. Is Colby Covington a live dog or an aging name ready to be cashed out?
That’s the dilemma facing fans and oddsmakers alike entering Saturday’s main event, which somewhat represents the true start of Edwards’ welterweight title reign now that his three-fight series with Kamaru Usman, which bookend his current 12-fight unbeaten streak, is behind him. Edwards, whose last defeat came to Usman all the way back in 2015, will look to build upon his two recent wins over the former pound-for-pound king by taking on the man Usman twice defeated in title fights. On one hand, Covington is now 36 and hasn’t fought in 21 months since defeating a faded Jorge Masvidal. He also hasn’t beaten a ranked welterweight since 2018. But while Covington’s third title shot has been received by many fans with disgust considering there are fighters (Belal Muhammad, anyone?) far more deserving, the betting odds have this alarmingly close to a pick ’em, with “Chaos” sitting pretty as a +122 underdog. Covington isn’t even the same caliber striker as Usman, let alone the elusive and accurate Edwards. But he is a more dangerous threat to take Edwards down and potentially hold them there, which was a skill set Usman began to abandon over the years due to injury, age and evolution.
2. No belts are safe in the new era of UFC men’s flyweight
Gone are the days when inaugural 125-pound champion Demetrious Johnson — or even the man who is credited with saving the division, Henry Cejudo — held on to the belt for multiple years and title defenses. Modern-day flyweight is a pinball machine of parity come to life, which made the recent four-fight title feud between former champions Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueriedo so incredible. But if Alexandre Pantoja’s dramatic (and violent) split-decision win over Moreno to capture the title in July taught us anything, it’s that the hot-potato nature of the title switching hands isn’t over. So, what does that mean for Pantoja in his rematch with red-hot Brandon Royval? It means that anything can happen. Even though Pantoja submitted Royval in their non-title bout two years ago, the loss marked a turning point for the Denver native in that he pulled back a bit on the crowd-pleasing reputation for recklessness just enough to showcase his dual-threat game as a knockout and submission threat. Royval has won three straight fights, including finishes of ranked contenders Matt Schnell and Matheus Nicolau. Even with Pantoja entering as a slight favorite, fireworks are expected in a rematch that very few people are talking about enough.
3. Shavkat Rakhmonov is one of the scariest fighters on the planet
It might be a bit of cruel irony that Muhammad, the most deserving welterweight title contender on the UFC roster, goes by the moniker of “Remember the Name,” because so many are quick to forget it when sizing up the next potential challengers to Edwards’ crown. But what happens if Rakhmonov does the kind of things to 40-year-old Stephen Thompson on Saturday that oddsmakers expect by installing the frightening Kazak finisher as nearly a 7-1 favorite? Even though Thompson is fresh off of stopping Kevin Holland last December to stop a two-fight losing skid, many believe this matchup was only booked as payback by UFC brass for “Wonderboy” refusing to fight Michel Pereira in July after his Brazilian foe missed weight. And Rakhmonov enters with a 17-0 record that is even scarier when you examine it more closely. Not only has Rakhmonov finished every single pro opponent he has faced, he’s fresh off of breakthrough wins over perennial contenders Neil Magny and Geoff Neal. Should he do the same against the former two-time title challenger in Thompson, it’s going to be hard to keep Rakhmonov away from an eventual world title win that looks more like a “when” right now than an “if.”
4. Is Paddy Pimblett-Tony Ferguson the best or worst kind of matchmaking?
At 28, the jury is still out whether Pimblett, the brash breakout star from the U.K., is all he’s cracked up to be. If you’re only as good as your last performance in the unforgiving fight game, it has been hard for many to distance themselves from Pimblett’s uneven performance when he scored a highly disputed decision over Jared Gordon last December. Even Pimblett has echoed his harshest critics by describing the matchmaking of Saturday’s return against the long-faded Tony Ferguson as a “lose-lose situation,” and one he simply can’t win, even by being victorious. Such is the case when the promotion pairs you with a 39-year-old riding a six-fight losing streak while absorbing nothing but heavy damage. Pimblett badly needs a convincing win to clear his name and has had no problem up to this point playing the flamboyant heel who prances around to the beat of his own drum, regardless of whether fans are cheering or booing him. It’s a role he would need to reprise considering how much Ferguson has become a cult favorite for fans, similar to the Diaz brothers. But that’s the part of the deal that also makes this so brilliant. Just imagine how big the pop would be in Las Vegas if Ferguson, who is only a +240 underdog given the questions surrounding Pimblett, finds a way to expose a fighter who would instantly be hailed as the promotion’s next great hype job.
5. It has been quite a wild few weeks for Ian Machado Garry
At 26, the fast-talking Irishman has fancied himself, dating back to his UFC debut two years ago, as the successor in waiting to Conor McGregor’s stardom. On paper, Saturday’s test against veteran contender Vicente Luque represents the perfect escalation from recent wins over Magny and Daniel Rodriguez for Garry to be taken seriously as a legitimate 170-pound contender. So what’s the problem? If social media is any indication, it feels as if the entire fighting world has turned on Garry in ways only Pimblett could recently relate. But it wasn’t because of a near-loss or poor performance inside the cage. Garry’s reputation for everything from being a bad teammate inside the gym to the unique elements of his marriage have been on full display for everyone to take shots at, including middleweight champion Sean Strickland, who posted a rather inflammatory warning to Garry after the two recently exchanged unpleasantries at the UFC Performance Institute. Like Pimblett, Garry is no stranger to benefitting from the controversy he played a part in stirring up and seems to revel in the spotlight, even if the roots of such a close-up were planted in negativity. After what would be a distraction for most fighters ahead of such a defining test could be the perfect kind of fuel for someone with as flashy a persona as Garry. He may not be as close to the top as someone like Rakhmonov, but it would be just as difficult to keep him away from a big fight should he block out the distractions long enough to handle his business inside the cage.
