There will be no coal in my picking stocking this year, even if some out there think I am The Grinch.
With the holidays upon us, I got my first Christmas gift last week when I went 9-5-1 with my picks against the spread and 12-4 straight up. That brings my ATS record to 110-103-11and my straight-up picks record to 136-88. Being seven games over .500 ATS sure is a nice feeling as we head to Christmas weekend.
Let’s keep it going with a nice Week 16. I want nothing but good feelings this Christmas, and giving me a second straight week of good picks would be another nice present for me — and hopefully for you.
All times Eastern
New Orleans Saints (+4) at Los Angeles Rams
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. (Amazon Prime Video)
This is a big game in terms of playoffs for both teams. The Rams are one of the surprise teams in the league with a lot of young players getting the job done on both sides. The Saints have had struggles on the road, but I think their defense will keep them in this one. Rams take it, but it’s tight.
Pick: Rams 23, Saints 21 (Result: Rams 30, Saints 22)
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. (NBC, fubo)
This is essentially a playoff game because the loser is basically done. The Bengals have won three straight with Jake Browning, but playing a division rival on the road is a challenge. The Steelers haven’t been good on offense all year, so they are turning to Mason Rudolph at quarterback. He won’t be the reason they win it, but the defense will be.
Pick: Steelers 26, Bengals 23
Buffalo Bills (-11) at Los Angeles Chargers
Saturday, 8 p.m. (Peacock)
The Bills have won two straight against two top teams and now get to play a Chargers team that has an interim coach and a quarterback making his second start. The Buffalo offense has really played well the past few weeks, and that will continue here. Josh Allen will complete more than the seven passes he hit last week as the Bills roll on.
Pick: Bills 31, Chargers 17
If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet for every game in Week 16.
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons (-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, fubo)
Both of these teams are still alive, but they have a feel of two teams going in opposite directions. The Falcons will start Taylor Heinicke in this one at quarterback. The Colts have been playing well, but I think this is a game where the Falcons will find a way behind Heinicke.
Pick: Falcons 23, Colts 20
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Paramount+)
Titans quarterback Will Levis injured his ankle last week in the loss to the Texans, so his status bears watching. Even so, I think with Levis or Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, the Titans can win this game. Seattle is on a short week, and even with Geno Smith back the Titans will find a way to win this one.
Pick: Titans 28, Seahawks 24
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (+3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, fubo)
The Lions can lock up the division by winning this game. It won’t be easy. The Vikings defense had big issues against the Bengals last week, but I think it will bounce back here. The Vikings will get after Jared Goff to slow the offense and stay in this and win it late.
Pick: Vikings 23, Lions 20
Washington Commanders at New York Jets (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Paramount+)
So much for the idea that Aaron Rodgers would be back. The Jets are done and the Commanders are right there with them. The Jets at least have a defense that can slow down Washington. This will be ugly — no matter who plays quarterback for the Jets — but the Jets defense will get them the victory.
Pick: Jets 19, Commanders 14
Green Bay Packers (-5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, fubo)
The Panthers won a game last week with a late-game drive by Bryce Young. That matters for the future. The Packers have lost two straight, but they won’t lose this one, even as bad as their defense played last week. The Packers take it and the defense lessons the heat on Joe Barry.
Pick: Packers 26, Panthers 13
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Cleveland Browns (+2.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a big game for both teams. The Browns have played well with Joe Flacco at quarterback, but he lost his last road start. The Texans should have C.J. Stroud back for this one, but that’s still up in the air. Even if he is back, I think the Browns win it with a few deep balls and solid defense.
Pick: Browns 24, Texans 17
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. (CBS, Paramount+)
Trevor Lawrence is in the concussion protocol, which means it could be C.J. Beathard starting at quarterback. But this game will come down to whether Baker Mayfield can have success against the Jacksonville defense. That unit played well last week against the Ravens, and I think they can slow Mayfield enough here. Jaguars take it.
Pick: Jaguars 23, Bucs 20
Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, fubo)
Both teams are coming off losses, but the Bears probably should have won their game. Their defense has made real strides in the past month, which I think will be the deciding factor here. Chicago takes it behind a good defensive showing, but it’s close as Arizona hangs around.
Pick: Bears 20, Cardinals 19
Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, fubo)
This is an enormous game between two really good teams. The Cowboys are playing a second straight road game, which is a challenge after getting beat by the Bills last week. Dallas doesn’t play well on the road, while Miami plays well at home. Even so, I think the Cowboys will find a way to hang around in this one.
Pick: Dolphins 30, Cowboys 29
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-6)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. (NFL Network, fubo)
The Patriots are playing out the string, while the Broncos are still pushing for a playoff spot. The Denver defense played horribly against the Lions last week, but being back home for a Christmas Eve game will get them back playing well. It helps the New England offense isn’t very good. Broncos take it.
Pick: Broncos 24, Patriots 10
Las Vegas Raiders (+10) at Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Nickelodeon, Paramount+)
The Chiefs got back on track last week against the Patriots and now can push to get the top seed. They beat the Raiders earlier this year on the road, but the Raiders are a better defense now. The Chiefs win it, but it’s close.
Pick: Chiefs 24, Raiders 21
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5)
Monday, 4:30 p.m. (Fox, fubo)
The Eagles have lost three straight, but this is a good chance for a get-right game. The Giants are playing consecutive road games, which is always tough. It’s tougher when it’s against a team playing for a division title, while you are playing out the string. Look for the Eagles to bounce back here with a strong showing by Jalen Hurts.
Pick: Eagles 30, Giants 14
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN, fubo)
This is the game of the week, maybe the year. These are the two best teams in either conference. The 49ers get a break getting the Ravens playing consecutive road games. The 49ers offense is the best unit of all four in this game, which is why I think they win this one. Brock Purdy wins the MVP battle with Lamar Jackson.
Pick: 49ers 29, Ravens 21
