Chris Towers identifies teams that could rest starters and teams that still have something to play for
• 2 min read
So, here’s the tricky thing: Some teams with little to play for will still treat Week 18 like a normal week. Some will put their starters out there to begin the game, but will turn things over to backups as the game goes on; some will only sit certain players for certain stretches. And some teams will sit everyone relevant. Which teams will do which?
Well, that’s pretty much impossible to say until and unless we get some kind of official word from the teams themselves. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni told reporters Monday he might consider sitting some key players, though that decision might not come until halftime — the Eagles need to win and have the Cowboys lose to the Commanders to have a chance to win the NFC East, so if Dallas is up big early, that might trigger the decision.
We can make some educated guess on some of these, of course, and if you look at the Vegas lines, it seems we already have. The Ravens are 3.5-point underdogs at home against the Steelers Saturday, a pretty good sign that the starters are expected to sit now that they’ve locked up a bye and homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs; similarly, the 49ers are only favored by 3.5 at home against the Rams with their No. 1 seed locked up, and they’ve already announced Christian McCaffrey won’t play due to a mild calf strain. The Chiefs are 1.5 underdogs to the Chargers, under the assumption that Andy Reid will do what he has done in the past and rest his starters.
Among playoff teams, the Ravens, 49ers, and Chiefs are three of the five teams who effectively have nothing to play for in Week 18, along with the Rams and Browns. The Rams seeding in the NFC bracket could be impacted by the outcome of their game, but they are overwhelmingly likely to be the sixth seed and can’t move any higher than that, so Sean McVay may decide he doesn’t have much to play for either.
Here’s how every team’s Week 18 outlook looks, with the teams in the first two categories and the last one the most likely to sit their starters this weekend:
- Teams that have nothing to play for in Week 18 because they locked up the No. 1 seed in their conferences: Ravens, 49ers
- Teams that have nothing to play for because they are effectively locked into a playoff spot: Browns, Rams, Chiefs
- Teams that absolutely have to win in Week 18: Bills, Jaguars, Colts, Texans, Steelers, Buccaneers, Packers, Seahawks, Saints, Vikings, Falcons
- Teams that really want to win in Week 18: Dolphins, Cowboys, Lions, Eagles
- Teams that have nothing to play for because they are eliminated from the playoffs: Bengals, Broncos, Raiders, Jets, Chargers, Titans, Patriots, Bears, Giants, Commanders, Cardinals, Panthers
Now, all of those teams in the bottom category may not rest any starters even though they have nothing to play for, because, well … they don’t have playoffs to worry about getting healthy for. We’ve already seen the Broncos and Commanders turn to backup quarterbacks (at least before injuries), but the Bears still actually have a lot at stake in Week 18, as they have a very tough decision to make about Justin Fields‘ future. They’re likely to keep their starters out there the entire game to get one more look at him, at least.
