The San Antonio Spurs visit the Atlanta Hawks for an MLK Day matchup on Monday afternoon. The Spurs are 7-31 this season, with the Hawks entering at 15-23 in a disappointing start to the 2023-24 campaign. Zach Collins and Sidy Cissoko are out for the Spurs, with Doug McDermott listed as questionable. De’Andre Hunter (knee), Mouhamed Gueye (back), Vit Krejci (shoulder), and Wesley Matthews (calf) are out for the Hawks.
Tipoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET in Atlanta. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists Atlanta as the 7.5-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 245.5 in the latest Spurs vs. Hawks odds. Before making any Hawks vs. Spurs picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 12 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 112-62 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning well over $4,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Spurs vs. Hawks and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Hawks vs. Spurs:
- Spurs vs. Hawks spread: Hawks -7.5
- Spurs vs. Hawks over/under: 245.5 points
- Spurs vs. Hawks money line: Hawks -328, Spurs +258
- San Antonio: The Spurs are 9-10 against the spread in road games
- Atlanta: The Hawks are 3-14 against the spread in home games
- Spurs vs. Hawks picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Spurs can cover
The Spurs have an emerging star in Victor Wembanyama, who leads the team on both ends. Wembanyama was the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, and he is averaging 19.4 points and 10.2 rebounds per game in his rookie campaign. Wembanyama is averaging 23.4 points per game on 52.3% shooting in his last seven contests, and he is also leading the NBA in averaging 3.1 blocked shots per game on defense. The Spurs are also excellent in sharing the ball, averaging 29.0 assists per game, and San Antonio is above-average in free throw accuracy (78.7%) and fast break points (15.2 per game).
From there, the Spurs should benefit greatly from Atlanta’s defensive struggles. The Hawks are near the bottom of the NBA in allowing more than 1.20 points per possession this season, and things have gotten worse in January, with opponents putting up 1.24 points per possession against Atlanta. No team is worse in opponent field goal percentage (50.5%) than Atlanta, and the Hawks are in the bottom five of the NBA in points allowed in the paint, second-chance points allowed, fast break points allowed, assists allowed, 2-point percentage allowed and 3-point percentage allowed. See which team to pick here.
Why the Hawks can cover
Atlanta has not been dominant at home this season, but the Hawks have the advantage against a Spurs team that has an ugly -11.5 net rating on the road. The Hawks also have the superior offense on paper, scoring almost 1.18 points per possession. Atlanta is in the top six of the NBA in free throw creation (25.3 attempts per game), free throw accuracy (81.3%), and offensive rebound rate (32.1%), with the Hawks also scoring 15.8 second-chance points per game.
The Spurs struggle to score on a consistent basis, putting up only 1.09 points per possession. That places San Antonio in the bottom three of the NBA in offensive efficiency, and the Spurs struggle in both shooting efficiency and offensive rebounding. San Antonio is shooting only 45.8% from the field and 34.8% from 3-point range this season, with the Spurs then grabbing only 25.9% of available offensive rebounds. The Hawks are forcing 14.8 turnovers per game on defense, including 8.2 steals per game to rank in the top five of the NBA. See which team to pick here.
How to make Hawks vs. Spurs picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 241 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Spurs vs. Hawks, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 112-62 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
