Friday, December 27, 2024

Projecting NFL All-Pros at each offensive position: What they look like, where they are picked and who’s next

Projecting NFL All-Pros at each offensive position: What they look like, where they are picked and who’s next

The 2024 NFL Draft is all about projection, but teams spend a lot of money to take as much guesswork as possible out of the equation. Taking a sample size of the past five years, CBSSports.com was able to provide some insight into the prototypical player at each offensive position, as well as where teams are able to get them on draft weekend. 

Quarterback

Over the past five years, eight quarterbacks have been named first- or second-team All-Pro by the Associated Press: Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Jalen Hurts (Eagles), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Tom Brady (Buccaneers), Josh Allen (Bills) and Russell Wilson (Seahawks). 

There is so much required of the quarterback position that does not show up in measurements or physical testing. Quarterbacks capable of extending plays and running the football are finding more success in the modern NFL. In terms of background, at least half of those eight representatives also played baseball in high school. 

When averaging physical measurements of All-Pro quarterbacks, the following quarterback profile is spit out:

Height 6-foot-2
Weight 221 pounds
Hand size 10.0 inches
Arm length 32.4 inches
Wingspan 78.1 inches
40-yard dash 4.79 seconds
10-yard split 1.65 seconds
Bench press (225 pounds)
Vertical jump 32
Broad jump
3-cone drill
20-yard shuttle

Quarterbacks often opt out of testing such as the 40-yard dash, bench press, etc. … so those numbers are less important. Where teams are finding these players IS important. Half of the All-Pro quarterbacks have been selected in the first round. The second, third, fourth and sixth rounds each have one representative. 

NFL player who profiles as potential All-Pro

C.J. Stroud, Texans

Fans have been able to see more of Stroud’s personality since the season concluded. He is wired the right way as a competitor and a student of the game. His rookie season, which ended in the divisional round of the playoffs, was one of the best ever seen from a player in his first season. 

As he continues to grow more comfortable with the system, the talent around him, the atmosphere and more, he should be able to take his game to another level. Stroud completed 63.9% of his passes for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns and five interceptions. The Ohio State product finished fourth in EPA per dropback last season, per TruMedia.

Jordan Love of the Packers is another player whose physical profile stacks up favorably to the prototype. 

NFL Draft prospect who profiles as potential All-Pro

Carson Beck, Georgia

A year ago, it would have been easy to project the quarterback prospects who may achieve future success in the NFL. The upcoming draft class requires a vision few talent evaluators possess. There are highly regarded high school prospects like Penn State’s Drew Allar and then there are name talents like Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders. Neither of those are the prospect of choice, however. It is Beck. 

Last season was Beck’s first as the starter, and he improved as the season progressed. With a full year under his belt and the starting role firmly in his grasp, it will be interesting to see whether or not the Jacksonville native can take the next step for a championship contender.

Running back

Over the past five years, seven running backs have been named first- or second-team All-Pro by the Associated Press: Christian McCaffrey (Panthers and 49ers), Kyren Williams (Rams), Josh Jacobs (Raiders), Nick Chubb (Browns), Jonathan Taylor (Colts), Derrick Henry (Titans) and Alvin Kamara (Saints). 

It may come as a surprise that the All-Pro running back contingency over the past five years is small, but McCaffrey and Henry have been staples when healthy. 

Height 5-foot-11
Weight 219 pounds
Hand size 9.3 inches
Arm length 31.3 inches
Wingspan 75.1 inches
40-yard dash 4.52 seconds
10-yard split 1.57 seconds
Bench press (225 pounds) 18.6 reps
Vertical jump 36.8 inches
Broad jump 126.6 inches
3-cone drill 6.97 seconds
20-yard shuttle 4.33 seconds

When it comes to running backs, there has long been a dialogue about collegiate workload. When exploring these seven All-Pros, I found they averaged 542.86 career carries at the Division I level. Each of these players, with the exception of Williams, was drafted in the top-75 overall. Again, for all of the talk about waiting and finding contributors at the position late in the draft, teams are identifying difference-makers much earlier. 

Of note, the peak of the 10-yard split, which measures burst, was only separated from the basement by just 0.08 seconds. Moving forward, it will be interesting to track just how well that correlates to future success.

NFL player who profiles as potential All-Pro

Bijan Robinson, Falcons

The union between former Falcons coach Arthur Smith and Robinson was not as fruitful as either had hoped. Free from Smith and Cordarrelle Patterson in 2024, the outlook of the former No. 8 overall selection is one of the more intriguing storylines of the upcoming season. As a rookie, the Texas native managed 214 carries for 976 yards and four touchdowns, as well as 58 receptions for 487 yards and 4 touchdowns. 

Robinson finished in the top 10 of TruMedia’s tackle avoidance metric (24.3%) last season.

NFL Draft prospect who profiles as potential All-Pro

Ashton Jeanty, Boise State

From a height and weight standpoint, Jeanty (5-foot-9, 210 pounds) is not going to match up with the prototype, but his weight relative to his height is similar (pounds-to-inch average, 3.08; Jeanty, 3.04). The shared characteristic is that he is a difference-maker. The Boise State product is shifty and explosive, but he can also make an impact in the pass game. The sophomore from Jacksonville managed 43 receptions for 569 yards and five touchdowns last season. 

Wide receiver

Over the past five years, 20 wide receivers have been named first- or second-team All-Pro by the Associated Press: Tyreek Hill (Chiefs and Dolphins), CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys), Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions), A.J. Brown (Eagles), Puka Nacua (Rams), Brandon Aiyuk (49ers), Mike Evans (Buccaneers), Justin Jefferson (Vikings), Davante Adams (Packers and Raiders), Stefon Diggs (Bills), Cooper Kupp (Rams), Deebo Samuel (49ers), Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals), DeAndre Hopkins (Cardinals), Calvin Ridley (Falcons), DK Metcalf (Seahawks), Cole Beasley (Bills), Michael Thomas (Saints), Julio Jones (Falcons) and Chris Godwin (Buccaneers). 

Height 6-foot-1
Weight 206 pounds
Hand size 9.6 inches
Arm length 32.4 inches
Wingspan 77.2 inches
40-yard dash 4.48 seconds
10-yard split 1.57 seconds
Bench press (225 pounds) 16.4 reps
Vertical jump 36.9 inches
Broad jump 124.8 inches
3-cone drill 7.10 seconds
20-yard shuttle 4.25 seconds

‘Wide receiver’ is a broad scope for the position because they come in different shapes and sizes. As a result, the physical output was all over the map, and it is impossible to ascertain one key indicator of future success. 65% of All-Pro wide receivers over the past five years have been drafted in the top-75 overall. The odds of finding that caliber of player increase dramatically the earlier they are taken but, in regards to value, this is one position teams are able to find impact players later in the draft. 

NFL player who profiles as potential All-Pro

Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins

There has been a large swath of wide receivers reach All-Pro status over the past four years, so pickings are slim outside of incoming rookies Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze and Malik Nabers. One stock worth buying is that of Waddle’s. In each of his three seasons, the Alabama product has topped 70 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards. He was paid this offseason, so his future is intertwined with the organization. The same may not be true of his running mate, Hill, who is said to be disgruntled with his current contract

Otherwise, I am looking at that 2022 draft class that includd Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jameson Williams

NFL Draft prospect who profiles as potential All-Pro

Evan Stewart, Oregon

The Texas A&M transfer was a five-star recruit out of high school and is walking into an offensive situation with respected coordinator Will Stein and experienced quarterback Dillon Gabriel. There is another level to which Stewart can still take his game and, in doing so, he could position himself well in his first year of draft eligibility. 

Through two collegiate seasons, he has amassed 91 receptions for 1,164 yards and six touchdowns.

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Tight end 

Over the past five years, four tight ends have been named first- or second-team All-Pro by the Associated Press: George Kittle (49ers), Sam LaPorta (Lions), Mark Andrews (Ravens) and Travis Kelce (Chiefs). 

Kelce, Kittle and Andrews have dominated All-Pro tight end voting, which makes it even more impressive that LaPorta was able to sneak in as a rookie. 

Height 6-foot-4
Weight 251 pounds
Hand size 10.0 inches
Arm length 32.9 inches
Wingspan 78.3 inches
40-yard dash 4.60 seconds
10-yard split 1.56 seconds
Bench press (225 pounds) 17.5 reps
Vertical jump 33.7 inches
Broad jump 122.5 inches
3-cone drill 7.13 seconds
20-yard shuttle 4.41 seconds

Over the last 10 years, there have been nine tight ends drafted in the first round. None of them have been named an All-Pro. Five of them are on different teams than the one by which they were drafted. The average draft position of the four All-Pros is No. 82 overall

It was a small sample size of All-Pro tight ends, but their 10-yard splits were separated by just 0.05 seconds. 

NFL player who profiles as potential All-Pro

Luke Musgrave, Packers

Most would assume the most recent first-round tight end selection, Brock Bowers of the Raiders, would be the choice. However, Musgrave is the prototype based on his pre-draft testing, and nominating him allows me to further push my pre-draft bias of the player. 

According to MockDraftable.com, the nephew of former Eagles, Panthers, Jaguars, Vikings, Raiders and Broncos offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave measured 6-foot-5 and 7/8 inches and weighed 253 pounds. He ran a 4.61-second 40-yard dash with a 1.58-second 10-yard split, in addition to posting a 36-inch vertical jump and a 10-foot-5 broad jump. Limited to 11 games as a rookie, Musgrave caught 34 passes for 352 yards and a touchdown. 

NFL Draft prospect who profiles as potential All-Pro

Colston Loveland, Michigan

The 6-foot-5, 245-pound Idaho native caught 45 passes from eventual first-round pick J.J. McCarthy for 649 yards and  four touchdowns for the national champion Wolverines. A lot has changed for Loveland entering the 2024 season, as Jim Harbaugh has departed for the Chargers and McCarthy is now quarterbacking the Vikings. 

Offensive tackle

Over the past five years, 13 offensive tackles have been named first- or second-team All-Pro by the Associated Press: Trent Williams (49ers), Penei Sewell (Lions), Tyron Smith (Cowboys), Lane Johnson (Eagles), Andrew Thomas (Giants), Tristan Wirfs (Buccaneers), Rashawn Slater (Chargers), David Bakhtiari (Packers), Jack Conklin (Titans), Garett Bolles (Broncos), Ryan Ramczyk (Saints), Ronnie Stanley (Ravens) and Mitchell Schwartz (Chiefs). 

When averaging physical measurements of All-Pro offensive tackles, the following profile is spit out:  

Height 6-foot-5
Weight 311 pounds
Hand size 10.3 inches
Arm length 34.5 inches
Wingspan 81.8 inches
40-yard dash 5.03 seconds
10-yard split 1.76 seconds
Bench press (225 pounds) 26.3 reps
Vertical jump 30.5 inches
Broad jump 109.0 inches
3-cone drill 7.63 seconds
20-yard shuttle 4.67 seconds

The correlation between where an offensive tackle is drafted and the odds of that player become an All-Pro is staggering. 92.3% of All-Pro offensive tackles were drafted in the top-40 overall. Bakhtiari, formerly of the Packers, is the lone exception. He was picked No. 109 overall. 

Every year, there is a conversation about whether a collegiate offensive tackle will remain at the position as a professional or be forced to move inside. The reason for that belief is often related to one of two topics: foot speed or arm length. There is always a defense of the offensive tackles with sub-33-inch arms, but the benchmark is supported when studying the All-Pros over the past five years. The shortest arm length of an offensive tackle chosen as an All-Pro was 33 inches; the average was 34.48 inches. 

NFL player who profiles as potential All-Pro

Christian Darrisaw, Vikings

Chargers offensive tackle Joe Alt would be my choice but, to this point, I have intentionally steered clear of rookies to shine some light on deserving veterans. Darrisaw is one of them. The former first-round pick from Virginia Tech has made neither a Pro Bowl nor All-Pro team. He finished with one of the top-25 best beaten rates (2.5%) among linemen with at least 500 pass-blocking snaps last season, according to TruMedia. Nine of the players with a better rate have been named an All-Pro in the past five years. 

NFL Draft prospect who profiles as potential All-Pro

Will Campbell, LSU

Campbell is listed at 6-foot-6 and 325 pounds. He is patient in his pass arc but also does a good job adjusting his hands and feet when engaged. There are former 5-star recruits like Josh Conerly Jr. and Kelvin Banks Jr. breathing down his neck, but the Louisiana native is among the best positioned.

Offensive guard

Over the past five years, nine offensive guards have been named first- or second-team All-Pro by the Associated Press: Joe Thuney (Patriots and Chiefs), Zack Martin (Cowboys), Tyler Smith (Cowboys), Chris Lindstrom (Falcons), Joel Bitonio (Browns), Quenton Nelson (Colts), Wyatt Teller (Browns), Brandon Scherff (Commanders) and Marshal Yanda (Ravens). 

Here is what the prototypical All-Pro offensive guard looks like over the past five years:

Height 6-foot-4
Weight 313 pounds
Hand size 10.1 inches
Arm length 33.6 inches
Wingspan 80.7 inches
40-yard dash 5.05 seconds
10-yard split 1.75 seconds
Bench press (225 pounds) 27.4 reps
Vertical jump 29.3 inches
Broad jump 109.4 inches
3-cone drill 7.52 seconds
20-yard shuttle 4.60 seconds

More than half of the All-Pro offensive guards over the past five years have been taken in the first round. The only one taken beyond the top-100 overall picks was Virginia Tech’s Wyatt Teller (drafted No. 166 overall by the Bills). Five of the nine played left tackle in college.

NFL player who profiles as potential All-Pro

Alijah Vera-Tucker, Jets

Vera-Tucker is a former first-round pick who played left tackle in college for USC, so he checks both of those boxes. From a physical profile, his pre-draft testing closely mirrors that of the prototype. Injuries have limited his availability, yet Vera-Tucker has allowed just six sacks in 28 appearances. His 2.6% beaten rate, according to TruMedia, is very low. When asked to take on other roles for an offensive line consistently hampered by injuries, the ex-Trojan has risen to the challenge. 

There’s also Peter Skoronski’s of the Titans. The hire of offensive line coach Bill Callahan should positively impact the trajectory his career.

NFL Draft prospect who profiles as potential All-Pro

Earnest Greene III, Georgia

Greene has played and will continue to play left tackle for the Bulldogs. Exposure to left tackle has been a common background trait among All-Pro offensive guards. It is too soon to tell where Greene’s best future lies at the next level, but he has the frame that suggests a move inside. 

Center

Over the past five years, six centers have been named first- or second-team All-Pro by the Associated Press: Jason Kelce (Eagles), Frank Ragnow (Lions), Creed Humphrey (Chiefs), Corey Linsley (Packers), Ryan Kelly (Colts) and Rodney Hudson (Raiders). 

A look at the final prototype on the offensive side of the ball:

Height 6-foot-3 and 1/2 inches
Weight 300 pounds
Hand size 9.6 inches
Arm length 32.7 inches
Wingspan 78.7 inches
40-yard dash 5.09 seconds
10-yard split 1.73 seconds
Bench press (225 pounds) 28.8 reps
Vertical jump 30.0 inches
Broad jump 107.0 inches
3-cone drill 7.59 seconds
20-yard shuttle 4.54 seconds

The center position continues the trend of All-Pro offensive linemen being picked in the early rounds of the NFL Draft. Four of the six were taken in either the first or the second round. Once again, the 10-yard splits on these six players are incredibly tight; just 0.06 seconds is the distance between the high end of the range (Kelly and Hudson) and the low end (Kelce). 

NFL player who profiles as potential All-Pro

Tyler Linderbaum, Ravens

Linderbaum has just a 2.3% beaten rate in 32 games, according to TruMedia. The outlet has credited him with just four sacks allowed. The unit’s loss of Morgan Moses and Kevin Zeitler may have a negative impact on Linderbaum in the short term, however.

NFL Draft prospect who profiles as potential All-Pro

Parker Brailsford, Alabama

Brailsford followed his coaching staff from Washington to Tuscaloosa. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 275 pounds, one would imagine the interior lineman puts on some good weight between now and the end of his playing career. Brailsford is entering his third collegiate season. 

Pre-draft testing is a compilation of NFLCombineResults.com and MockDraftable.com. The numbers were drawn from NFL Scouting Combine and Pro Day testing. 

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