History beckons for England and Spain, a first men’s European Championships for the Three Lions or a record-breaking fourth for La Furia Roja, by far and away the best performing team in the tournament so far. England, however, might just have the most talent on paper and some of those qualities finally began to shine through in their semifinal triumph over the Dutch. What could be the decisive trends in the game and what could a win for either side mean in the aftermath? Let’s take a look:
What changes will be made to the starting XIs?
To what extent did the impressive performances of those who entered the defensive fray against France influence Luis de la Fuente for the biggest game of his managerial career? At right back, one would assume the answer is not at all. Jesus Navas performed well in spite of the circumstances the 37 year old found himself in — booked early on with the task of defending the most dangerous forward in football — but he was aided no end by his opposition’s curious reluctance to circulate the ball to Kylian Mbappe on the left flank. In spite of that, it is hard to see how Dani Carvajal, so reliable in the biggest games, does not come in.
Aymeric Laporte’s partner might be a little more up for debate. Robin Le Normand had looked solid enough without ever quite excelling before a yellow card ruled him out of the semifinal, one where Nacho entered the fray impressively. The former Real Madrid captain has seen it all when it comes to big finals — and done it when occasionally called for — and such big game experience cannot be discounted.
England, meanwhile, will likely roll out at least 10 of the players who Southgate has entrusted to get them to another final. There are question marks over the availability of Kieran Trippier, substituted off at half time as a precaution in the semifinal win over the Netherlands. It would hardly be the end of the world for the Three Lions, who spent so much much of the tournament without a functioning left side, if Luke Shaw entered the fray.
For all the question marks over Southgate’s tactical acumen, it should be noted that even while deploying an infrequently changing starting lineup — Declan Rice’s midfield partner the only unsettled slot during this tournament — he has been able to give different looks to his England side. Against Switzerland came the much vaunted pivot to a 3-4-2-1, Bukayo Saka functioning as a true right-sided attacker in possession, while Trippier’s role was more hybrid.
In the first half against the Dutch, however, England were even more front-footed. You could be forgiven for confusing the pass map above with something from a progressive, ball-dominant club side. It is not a million miles away from the sort of 2-3-5 in possession that Arsenal and Manchester City exploit, perhaps more 2-4-4, Walker and Trippier less inverting and more looking to stretch the width of the pitch with overlapping runs.
Will England feel like they can get away with such aggressive possession play from their full backs (especially the one who is supposed to be a hybrid wing back) when Dani Olmo and Rodri are waiting to spring Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal in behind? Perhaps not entirely, though advancing Trippier and Walker that high up the pitch tested the Dutch ability to play through the press and would do the same of a Spanish backline that, Laporte aside, may struggle.
Predicted lineups
Spain XI: Unai Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Fabian Ruiz, Olmo; Yamal, Morata, Williams
England XI: Pickford; Walker, Stones, Guehi, Shaw; Mainoo, Rice; Saka, Foden, Bellingham, Kane
Viewing information
- Date: Sunday, July 14 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Olympiastadion — Berlin
- TV: Fox | Live stream: Fubo (try for free)
- Odds: Spain +150; Draw +188; England +240
Will Southgate time his changes right?
If these two sides tournaments so far are anything to go on then expect a fast-paced start to proceedings. Spain have scored four, taking 36 shots, and conceded three in the first half hour of their Euro 2024 matches so far. England have three goals to their name at the same stage and have conceded two. They hit the front hard, but that has tended to bring with it tired legs. De La Fuente was nearly caught out in the quarterfinal win over Germany when he tried to preserve the fitness of both Williams and Yamal — more on that later — while Southgate’s key lieutenants looked dead on their feet in the second half against the Dutch.
No wonder. As Rice found himself unable to even reach the onrushing Dutch midfielders to foul them, you could perceive the great weight of all 4274 minutes of club football he played prior to a Euros where he is yet to miss a minute. It is no wonder Kane is late to the penalty area when he ended another gruelling season with a back problem. Jude Bellingham’s late season fitness issues seem not to have eased either.
England needed to change something and to his credit Southgate did. Neither Ollie Watkins nor Cole Palmer were a particular hive of activity before the substitutes combined for the winner less than 10 minutes after their introduction for Kane and Phil Foden. Vindication for the manager, cried out the English nation. As if that were required. For all the questions about Southgate’s tactical nous there are plenty of instances where his use of a high quality bench has swung a contest England’s way.
They range from the obvious — Ivan Toney’s assist for Kane to down Slovakia — to the more obtuse. Did space open up for Saka to cut onto his left foot and strike at goal because the presence of Eberechi Eze and Luke Shaw had given England an actual left flank with which to attack Switzerland?
Dig further back into past knockout rounds and there are plenty of other changes Southgate got right. Mason Mount very nearly swung the 2022 World Cup quarterfinal back in England’s direction. At Euro 2020 Jack Grealish established himself as something of an elite closer, assisting one and pre-assisting the other against Germany and playing an extremely effective role against Denmark. Even in a final that Southgate allowed to drift, Saka had his moments as the first man up off the bench. These might not be Pep Guardiola-esque gambits, ripping up the game plan to find something more effective on the fly, but that is a high bar for any coach. There’s nothing wrong with bringing players into the same system if their individual qualities better suit the game.
The curious, but much remarked upon, aspect of Southgate’s substitutions is how late he left them. Setting aside the enforced change of Trippier for Shaw on Wednesday, England have only once changed their XI before the hour mark of a knockout match under current management, the 57th minute of their Euro 2020 quarterfinal against Ukraine. Jordan Henderson replaced Declan Rice when England were 3-0 up. Maybe Southgate thinks of that as half time. It was the same score the following year when Saka and Foden were withdrawn in the 65th minute of a win over Senegal in the round of 16.
Discount that Trippier issue in the semifinal and Southgate’s first substitution in knockout matches comes in the 65th minute. In four of 11 matches he has done nothing until after the 78th minute. That might seem bafflingly late to his many detractors. Perhaps it speaks to a coach who clearly has his eye on games running into extra time and past the two hour mark. Six of those 11 games have gone to the 120th minute, three to penalties. England have even won two of them.
Were this final to go the whole way then you would have to fear for England. Spain have 30 minutes less football in their legs and their passage to the quarters was so serene that there is no sign of tired legs in De La Fuente’s side, who will have Carvajal and Le Normand back after nine days’ rest. If those 58 years of hurt are to be ended, it might be best if Southgate heeds the word’s of King Charles III and gets the game won in 90 minutes.
Is this Rodri’s Ballon d’Or moment?
Much as it seems a pity that one of the greatest prizes in team sport ends up being viewed through the lens of individual honors, there comes a time and a place where it is necessary to stoke the coals of the hype train. He may not have Rio Ferdinand shouting Ballon d’Or every second he is on the ball, but perhaps that is because Rodri has such a persuasive case to win the prize anyway. The 74-match unbeaten streak might have been ended by Manchester United, but one loss in 80 games isn’t to be sniffed at, is it?
The best player in the Premier League last season has been the best at the European Championships too, even if his midfield partner Fabian Ruiz is putting up a sterling fight. By almost every measure in which a midfielder can impact a game, Rodri is excelling.
He passes the ball frequently and accurately, getting the ball into the attacking third and keeping it for Spain when required. Should the ball break loose he is a monster in the duels, winning nearly 60 percent of the 49 he has been involved in and recovering possession on more occasions than anyone other than Fabian Ruiz. That clutch scoring trait he developed at Manchester City was on full display when La Roja wobbled against Georgia. Rodri might need to apply any or all of those traits at a given moment in the final. He has proven time and time again that he reads the moment better than anyone else.
“I try to give movement to the play, a dynamism, a rhythm,” he told The Guardian earlier in the tournament. “To connect to the players in front of you as soon as you can, to help the game mature, to interpret it, take it where you want it to be. That’s what most defines the role of the pivot: when to accelerate, when to brake, when to press higher, when to move deeper. Those thoughts are always going through your mind. When the ball comes to me and we need to apply a pause, I’m not going to accelerate the play.”
For all the burgeoning talents of Kobbie Mainoo and Rice’s off-ball excellence (infrequently seen as he has tired through the knockout stages), England do not have a midfielder who can run the game quite like Rodri can. He will doubtless have studied how Jorginho, Luka Modric and Frenkie de Jong have got the Three Lions on their passing carousel and left them dizzy en route to defeat in previous tournaments. Repeat that trick on Sunday and he might just have the individual prizes that he is utterly disinterested in.
Prediction: Once against England fall short at the final hurdle, Spain 2, England 1
