‘Tis the season for ranking stuff in the NFL and nothing gets people more riled up than ranking quarterbacks. Just ask Kyler Murray after last year’s rankings.
As a refresher, these aren’t straight rankings of NFL quarterbacks so much as they are tiers of quarterbacks. I don’t think Jordan Love is better than Matthew Stafford or Jared Goff. But I do think Love showed enough down the stretch to warrant suggesting he could take a massive leap forward this season, hence his placement.
And I can’t have 20 guys in the second tier, that’s just lazy work. And I’ve written too many words and spent too much time ranking these guys to be that lazy.
However, this year feels like we’ve got more separation than last year. Maybe it’s a result of a giant rookie class. Maybe it’s the old guard of quarterbacks moving out of the league. Maybe it’s the result of tons of injuries at the position last year. Whatever the case may be the clumps of signal callers felt bigger this season than in years past.
And it will surely anger everyone who reads it. So make sure and yell at me on ‘X’ @WillBrinson when you see something you don’t like.
Tier 1: The Big Three
2024: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen
Like last year, Mahomes could warrant his own category, a “One of One” type of designation for the two-time reigning Super Bowl champ. I think Allen and Lamar are close enough to warrant being included. Joe Burrow was in this category last year and I don’t have a problem with Joe Cool remaining as a top-tier QB option, but he needs to stay healthy for a full season. We’re going into Year 5 of Burrow’s career and he’s been extremely banged up almost every season. Hopefully they’re fluke-ish injuries and not a trend. Lamar’s second MVP last season should shut up all the foolish critics who didn’t think he belonged among the elite of the elite when it comes to QBs. Allen is now heading into the criticism cycle after another year of falling short of the Super Bowl. It’s hard to get there and it’s even harder when Mahomes/Andy Reid are busy ripping off a dynasty in your conference. With Stefon Diggs traded, it could be Allen’s turn to show what he can do without his No. 1 wideout.
2023: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen
Tier 2: Could Join Them Next Year
2024: Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love
Burrow slides here in a flip-flop with Lamar who jumped up a category from last year. He could make it a “Big Four” this time next year if he remains healthy for a full season. It’s really the only question about him.
Stroud’s rookie season was nothing short of incredible and the Texans did a great job remaining consistent around him during the offseason, while adding Diggs to the mix in what could be a big time spite spot. If Stroud backs up his first year as a pro with a repeat performance in 2024, he’d absolutely take a jump up in these rankings.
Love is a guy who could go either way, although the general consensus is he’s THE DUDE in Green Bay, the Packers third straight franchise quarterback. But let’s not forget as late as October of last year, the Packers GM was saying he didn’t know whether Love was the future in Green Bay. There’s enough upside for Love to make a big, big leap here, particularly with all the weapons, but let’s be clear: I’m putting him here because of the massive upside, not because I think he’s the fifth- or sixth-best quarterback in the NFL right now.
2023: Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts
Tier 3: Sneaky Upside/High Level Starters
2024: Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts
Stafford is older, but he has been AWESOME with the Rams when healthy. He played some of the best football of his career last year and it felt like another Super Bowl run was coming. With Aaron Donald gone, the offense will have to win for the Rams and a healthy Cooper Kupp, Puka Nakua developing further and the Rams beefing up the offensive line could set up Los Angeles offense to explode.
Goff is a legit MVP sleeper heading into a year of high hopes in Detroit. He gets more than 75 percent of his games indoors this season, might have the best offensive line in football and has a wealth of young weapons in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam La Porta and Jameson Williams.
Purdy got game manager status stamped all over him for a while but the reality is he was a legitimate MVP candidate. Let’s not forget he was a second-year player who was the last pick in the draft. He’s got the potential for more even though people want to cap his ceiling. And if he unlocks another level, the 49ers might finally win that elusive Super Bowl.
Herbert loses Moore but gains Jim Harbaugh as his head coach in Los Angeles. Harbs has many wondering if the Chargers will be run heavy in 2024 and the answer is definitively yes. But that might not be bad for Herbert — I envision a season in which he’s much more efficient and the Chargers win a lot more, even if his counting stats take a hit. Think lots of play action and deep bombs in Greg Roman’s system. The biggest knock on Herbert is he’s not a winner; now he’s playing for one of the biggest winners football’s ever seen in Harbaugh.
Prescott turned in the best season of his career last year with Mike McCarthy calling plays and CeeDee Lamb morphing into one of the best receivers in football. I’d expect more of the same this season, particularly with all parties involved going into contract seasons. The Cowboys feel like they’ll either light the NFL up in pursuit of Jerry Jones cold, hard cash or fail spectacularly because of Jerry Jones white hot pressure cooker.
Hurts is coming off a “down” year in which the Eagles passing game didn’t look as sharp and as a result has a new coordinator in Kellen Moore. The Eagles also collapsed down the stretch in 2023, so there will be plenty of critics waiting to see if he can justify the praise he received in taking Philly to the Super Bowl two years ago.
Tier 4: Intrigue with Question Marks
2024: Trevor Lawrence, Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, Kyler Murray
You could easily make the case to put Tua into the category above, but there are still enough question marks with him where I’m not willing to do that yet. He’s got to beat some good teams in big spots and if the Dolphins haven’t paid him yet, it at least says something about how they feel.
Lawrence got paid this offseason, and I tend to think he’s also closer to the second tier, but he needs to show up in a big way in 2024 to justify the money the Jaguars handed him after a step-back season last year. Rodgers is coming off a torn Achilles at the age of 40, so the question marks should be fairly obvious.
Richardson looked awesome as a rookie but it was such a short sample size because of his injuries. Can he stay healthy for 17 games in a run-heavy offense at the NFL level? Levis has a new coaching staff and new weapons and there’s viable reasons to believe he could turn into a high-upside quarterback, although he could easily fall into “No Clue, Man” status as well.
Kyler got mad at this very list last year because he was in “Tier 6” which was really more of an unknown situation than anything else. He looked good when he returned midseason, the Cardinals have committed to him, they added Marvin Harrison, Jr., and profile as a sleeper offense in 2024. Please don’t tweet at me, K1.
2023: Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson
Tier 5: You Can Win With Them
2024: Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Gardner Minshew
I’m not sure if it’s a good thing or a bad thing for Baker Mayfield to headline this class in 2024. We’ll lean towards good since it’s a move up from Baker, out of the unknown and into a steady, veteran-presence in Tampa Bay. He loses his OC Dave Canales to Carolina but gets Liam Cohen, who he’s worked with before. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still around and if the line protects him, we could see another strong year from the former No. 1 overall pick.
Cousins is in a new spot and maybe disrespected here a little bit, but he’s coming off a torn Achilles as well and is slotting into a new team with a new system. If he’s a full go by the start of the season with no physical restrictions, it’s possible he ends up having higher upside in Zac Robinson’s system with all the weapons around him that Atlanta offers.
Geno and Carr are fixtures here. The Seahawks offense has more upside than the Saints, especially with the talent at wide receiver Seattle boasts. But Chris Olave is no slouch and a change at coordinator might spark a better season from Carr in New Orleans. The ceiling feels limited for both however.
Minshew got some pretty big cash from Las Vegas this offseason, presumably to start the entire year after an impressive effort filling in for Richardson last season after injuries took the rookie out. He’s still a guy with a capped ceiling, particularly in an offense that will likely be based on pounding the football and on a team in a really, really tough division.
2023: Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo
Tier 6: Backs Against the Wall
2024: Bryce Young, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Daniel Jones,
A new tier for 2024, it’s a tough spot for a second-year QB like Young to find himself here. But there’s no question the pressure is on in Carolina with the former No. 1 overall pick. I expect him to be significantly better this season behind a revamped offensive line with new weapons in tow and a more stable coaching/offensive system in place. But if he struggles the wolves will be out.
Watson has been massively underwhelming for the Browns since they gave up tons of first-round picks for him, although having a guaranteed contract doesn’t put his back against the wall so much as it gives Watson all the leverage in the world. Still, if he doesn’t perform well this year, it will be pretty easy to close the book on one of the worst trades in NFL history.
Wilson is taking the vet minimum to play for the Steelers and has Justin Fields potentially nipping at his heels. He’s out for redemption after a disastrous performance with the Broncos that could also qualify as one of the worst trades in NFL history.
Danny Dimes is boom or bust this year with the Giants capable of getting out of his contract after 2024 if he struggles again. If he can repeat his performance from 2022 this season, it’s not inconceivable he ends up coming back for more in New York.
2023: N/A
Tier 7: The Rookies
2024: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Bo Nix, J.J. McCarthy
You can think all five of these guys will be great or think they’ll all stink. Doesn’t matter, because they’re rookies and we won’t know what we’re getting until we see it on the field for a full year. That’s why they get their own category. Plus it’s a lot easier to not make myself look stupid that way.
2023: Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson
