Ballon d’Or contenders: In weak field, could Lionel Messi give MLS first-ever winner of top individual trophy?

With UEFA Euro 2024 and this summer’s Copa America joining the UEFA Champions League and the European domestic season in being over, attention now will naturally turn towards the 2023-24 Ballon d’Or award. With a league title, domestic cup success and a European triumph the ideal club level combination which can be allied with an international win at either major tournament, there is no obvious candidate to have won it all. Real Madrid representatives are arguably the closest thing to that perfect combination and even Los Blancos did not seal domestic cup success. Therefore, this next award could end up going to an unexpected candidate outside of the usual suspects.

We take a look at the contenders who look the most likely to be in the shakeup ahead of the announcement in October.

Jude Bellingham: Real Madrid and England

• Goals: 25
• Assists: 12
• Major titles: Champions League and La Liga
• Case for: Bellingham was a key figure for Real during his debut season at Santiago Bernabeu. The Englishman stepped up immediately upon his move from Borussia Dortmund as part of a shift from Carlo Ancelotti’s men to disguise their lack of a true focal point in attack. The result was a surprisingly productive campaign for the 21-year-old even if it faded towards the end.
• Case against: This is why Bellingham’s argument for this next edition is not watertight as he was largely a passenger in the latter Champions League games — similar to Erling Haaland in Manchester City’s 2023 win — and did not enjoy a particularly impressive Euro along with most of his fellow England Euro finalists.

Rodri: Manchester City and Spain

• Goals: 10
• Assists: 11
• Major titles: Premier League and Euro 2024
• Case for: There is little doubt that Rodri is the best in the world for his position right now and not only is he a key fixture for Manchester City but also for Spain. Given the absence of an obvious candidate who has swept all before them and created a rock solid case for the Ballon d’Or, the 28-year-old genuinely stands a very good chance after La Roja’s Euro win and City’s EPL title defense.
• Case against: The only doubts for Rodri must be the fact that City failed in their quest to defend their UCL title and the fact that he came off injured before the Spanish scored either of their goals against England in the Euro final. Despite that, the midfielder was arguably only second in terms of influence on Luis de la Fuente’s midfield to Paris Saint-Germain’s Fabian Ruiz who does not have the same status.

Toni Kroos: Real Madrid and Germany

• Goals: 1
• Assists: 10
• Major titles: Champions League and La Liga
• Case for: Now that Kroos has retired, there will be no other opportunity to recognize one of the best midfielders that the modern game has seen. The 34-year-old went out on a high with Real after winning La Liga and the Champions League while he was also a key figure in Germany’s international rebirth which saw them reach the quarterfinals of their home Euro. He might not rack up the numbers often required for this sort of individual recognition but anybody who watched Kroos this past year will know that his main qualities have never included prolific goal numbers.
• Case against: Had Germany won the Euro, then there would likely be no real debate about his candidacy for the award. However, Julian Nagelsmann’s men fell short against ultimate winners Spain and although former teammate Luka Modric did secure a previous Ballon d’Or without an international title, he still led Croatia to a World Cup final.

Kylian Mbappe: PSG (now Real Madrid) and France

• Goals: 45
• Assists: 8
• Major titles: Ligue 1 and Coupe de France
• Case for: If goal involvement and simply how far the player’s teams got in their respective quests for silverware was the defining criteria then Kylian Mbappe would logically stand a good chance of winning the Ballon d’Or months after arrival at Real Madrid. One of Europe’s top scorers with two pieces of domestic silverware to his name in his final term with PSG, moving to the Spanish capital is a big step in his career.
• Case against: There is the awkward reality of Champions League and Euro semifinal losses to contend with, though. The Golden Shoe award only considers league goals which ranked him behind Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane and the England captain even outscored him at this summer’s Euro which speaks volumes about France’s underwhelming semifinal run in which Mbappe only scored a penalty and provided one assist.

Lionel Messi: Inter Miami and Argentina

• Goals: 13
• Assists: 10
• Major titles: Copa America
• Case for: Normally the go-to when in doubt for any major award, it is harder to imagine Lionel Messi trumphing this time around. However, a successful Copa America title defense on top of their World Cup win and potential retirement on a high could put him into the mix as an outside bet political choice in the absence of a clear and unchallengeable winner.
• Case against: Messi has done little of major note in Major League Soccer so far despite helping to secure Miami’s first-ever trophy last year and his deteriorating form and fitness was evident even at Copa America. That includes the final where an ankle injury forced the legendary Argentinian off the field before the Albiceleste actually got the job done against Colombia.

Vinicius Junior: Real Madrid and Brazil

• Goals: 26
• Assists: 9
• Major titles: Champions League and La Liga
• Case for: If the Ballon d’Or was being judged solely on club form this year, then Vini Jr. would almost certainly win the award. The Brazil international was absolutely crucial for Los Blancos and arguably merits their MVP award for last season’s success.
• Case against: Sadly for Vini Jr., his Real magic wore off at Copa America where Brazil went out in the quarterfinals despite two goals from their star man in the absence of Neymar. The Brazilian national team have work to do to get back to their previous best and Vini Jr. might have paid the price for their struggles here.

James Rodriguez: Sao Paulo and Colombia

• Goals: 1
• Assists: 6
• Major titles: None
• Case for: James Rodriguez’s rebirth with Colombia at this summer’s Copa America was nothing short of sensational and the 33-year-old is back on the radar after a stunning campaign which saw him set a tournament record of six assists in a single edition. For a player of James’ undoubted quality to roar back as he did with a Colombian side that was only narrowly deprived of a title merits recognition.
• Case against: However, James’ stunning Copa America with Los Cafeteros is not enough to win him the award without the title because his club career has been so far off the radar that many people wondered if he had come out of retirement for this one. If he can use this summer’s form to relaunch his career, then there might be one last shot at that sort of award but that remains a remote possibility.

Lautaro Martinez: Inter and Argentina

• Goals: 32
• Assists: 3
• Major titles: Serie A and Copa America
• Case for: With a domestic league title and an international one to his name after Inter’s Serie A triumph and Argentina’s Copa America win, Lautaro Martinez has a decent shout this year. Of major consideration should be the fact that he shouldered the goal-scoring burden while Messi was struggling for form and fitness and was key in Lionel Scaloni’s men going all the way in the U.S.
• Case against: Looking at Inter’s season, though, there is an obvious hole where there has been major regression in the Champions League having been beaten finalists against City the year before. Despite Italian soccer enjoying a great year in European soccer, the Nerazzurri’s round of 16 exit dampens his chances.

Dani Carvajal: Real Madrid and Spain

• Goals: 7
• Assists: 4
• Major titles: Champions League and La Liga
• Case for: A candidate because of Real and Spain’s dominance, Dani Carvajal will not win the Ballon d’Or but did more or less win it all this past year with La Liga, Champions League and Euro 2024 success.
• Case against: If we are being picky, the 32-year-old has not always been key for Real or Spain and he missed the crucial Euro semifinal win over Spain with La Roja which underlines the absence of any perfect candidate.