The Atlanta Braves, a defensible preseason pick to win the National League pennant and perhaps even the World Series, have had an uneven summer. They began the season in hot fashion, winning 19 of their first 28 games. They’ve since put up a 35-36 record, causing them to slip well behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East.
The Braves still hold the top wild-card spot, but an active three-game losing streak has dropped them to an 8-9 start to July. Factor in a tightened, frantic wild-card race, and perhaps it should come as no surprise that the Braves held a players-only meeting ahead of Tuesday night’s contest against the Cincinnati Reds — and, coincidentally, a week before the official passing of Major League Baseball’s trade deadline.
Just what’s going on with the Braves? We figured this would be a good time to check in. Scroll slowly with us as we examine three reasons for the Braves’ sluggish play.
1. Injuries piling up
If you know nothing else about the Braves this season, you probably know that they’ve dealt with a rash of injuries to key contributors.
As it stands, the Braves rank fourth in the majors with 11 players on the injured list. The only teams with more are the Los Angeles Dodgers, Cincinnati Reds, and New York Yankees. Wise readers are probably thinking “it’s not just about the quantity of injuries, it’s about the quality of players they’re missing.” You’d be correct in that assertion.
The Braves have played most of the season without ace Spencer Strider, and are currently proceeding without star outfielder and reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., center fielder Michael Harris II, second baseman Ozzie Albies, and left-hander Max Fried. (That’s without mentioning top prospect Hurston Waldrep or bullpen pieces like Tyler Matzek and Ray Kerr.) In turn, the Braves also rank second in the majors in projected Wins Above Replacement lost, behind only those Dodgers, according to Baseball Prospectus’ data.
2. Playoff odds nearing season-lows
Let’s be clear: slow start to July or not, the Braves remain an overwhelming favorite to make the playoffs. Their postseason odds have taken a hit as of late, though, and things may feel worse than they are because of the other dynamics at play with this club.
FanGraphs provides daily playoff odds updates for each team. (You can click here to see Atlanta’s.) The Braves, who entered Tuesday with a three-game lead for the top wild-card spot, still have an 85.8% chance at cracking October. While that, again, makes them overwhelming favorites to get in, it is notably also close to a season-low percentage.
In fact, only twice this season have the Braves had worse postseason odds: on June 12 (85.6%), and then on Monday, when their odds were at 85.7%. A loss against the Reds on Tuesday would almost guarantee that their odds would drop to a season-low.
3. Continued widespread underperformance
The Braves will play their 100th game on Tuesday night. It’s notable, then, that some of their best players continue to rock stat lines that fall well beneath expectations.
First baseman Matt Olson, not a year removed from finishing fourth in MVP voting, is sporting a would-be career-worst 92 OPS+. (Olson has been wretched in July, opening the month in a 7-for-62 slump with 19 strikeouts and one home run.) Catcher Sean Murphy and shortstop Orlando Arcia, both All-Stars in 2023, are well under their own career averages. Even reserve outfielder Adam Duvall and the injured trio of Albies, Harris, and Acuña were under their standards before they were placed on the shelf.
Bad or disappointing years happen on the individual level for any number of reasons, including injury and other misfortunes. But the Braves have enough of those occurring simultaneously that it’s alarming and contributing to their sputtering state ahead of the deadline. No wonder they’re calling a players-only meeting — they, just like everyone else in and around Atlanta, are trying to figure out how to get things back on track.
