It’s the final matchday of Olympic group stage play and the United States can show that they’ve fully rebounded from their first day loss to France. After defeating New Zealand 4-1, the goal for Marko Mitrovic and the team is simple, win and they’re through to the knockout stages.
Being able to rebound to that after losing 3-0 on the first day of group stage play shows resiliency in the squad but the fitness of midfielder Gianluca Busio will be something to watch. He downplayed the injury following the match against New Zealand.
“It’s all right. We’ll see. It’s just the same one I’ve been dealing with for a while,” Busio said. “But I don’t think it’s anything too serious.”
If Busio can’t feature, the likely replacement would be Jack McGlynn who made a strong impression after entering in relief. Given the Venezia connection between Busio and Tanner Tessmann, breaking that up could give Guinea chances to greater chances on the break.
Here’s our storylines, how you can watch the match and more:
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How to watch
- Date: Tuesday, July 30 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard — Saint-Etienne, France
- TV: USA | Live stream: Fubo (try for free)
- Odds: United States -225; Draw +290; Guinea +475
Storylines
United States: Outside of the wonder if Busio will play or not, Mitrovic’s decisions at the nine could also be a factor. While the United States did score three goals with Duncan McGuire on the pitch, the Orlando City man didn’t get in on the fun with Paxten Aaronson scoring once he slid into the middle as a false nine when McGuire was substituted. The United States attack has looked dangerous even against France but if it’s down to Griffin Yow or McGuire for a start, the impact is leaning in Yow’s favor.
Guinea: The United States has never defeated an African nation at the Olympics and with Guinea’s experienced midfield, they can cause some issues. Naby Keita captains the side for this tournament and the pressure will be there as even a victory alone won’t be enough to see Guinea through to the knockout stages. Looking to score early and often, there will be space for the United States to exploit.
Advancement scenarios
- With a victory against Guinea: The United States will qualify for the knockout round. While France or New Zealand can still win the group, if one of them were to win their match against the other, it would see the United States still finish second via goal difference.
- With a draw against Guinea: The United States will only qualify for the knockout round if New Zealand lose or draw while still having a worse goal difference than the United States.
- With a loss against Guinea: Things get quite tough for the United States. They have a goal difference of zero so losing by one goal to Guinea while New Zealand also lose to France would bring it to the second tiebreaker in all matches which is goals scored in the group stage. The United States would only advance in that 1-0 loss scenario due to scoring more goals than Guinea but losing by more than one goal would see Guinea advance on goal difference and New Zealand picking up a point would see them jump ahead on points.
Prediction
The United States will get the job done qualifying for the knockout stages with a comprehensive victory. Pick: United States 3, Guinea 1
