Terence Crawford looks to win a world championship in the fourth weight class of his career on Saturday when he moves up to junior middleweight to take on WBA champion Israil Madrimov. Crawford won a world title at lightweight before becoming undisputed champion at both junior welterweight and welterweight. Now fighting at 154 pounds, Crawford has his eyes on a massive fight with unified super middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez down the road.
Before the idea of a fight with Alvarez can be revisited, Crawford first has to get past Madrimov, a talented younger fighter who stopped Magomed Kurbanov in March to win his first world title just 11 fights into his career. Given his success as a professional and solid amateur experience, Madrimov is not being brought in as a light touch to get Crawford used to the new weight.
The undercard is deep, with several interesting fights featuring recognizable names and competitive pairings. With that in mind, let’s look at the three best bets we’ve identified for Saturday’s pay-per-view card.
Israil Madrimov (c) +450 vs. Terence Crawford -700
Terence Crawford to win by decision (+190)
Looking at the lines, there are two appealing choices here, either Crawford by decision at +190 or Crawford to win in Rounds 7-12 at +150. Madrimov is a very good fighter and there’s no real reason to believe Crawford is going to blow him out in the early rounds, especially as he comes up in weight for his first fight at junior middleweight and is coming off more than a year of inactivity. Crawford will likely need a few rounds to adjust to what Madrimov brings to the table as a very good opponent. But after that, Crawford should take over. So the question becomes whether Madrimov is able to survive the second half of a fight against arguably the best boxer on the planet. Just given that there’s a better price on the decision, we’ll ride with the possibility that he’s able to see out all 12 rounds before losing a decision to Crawford.
Isaac Cruz -450 vs. Jose Valenzuela +330
Fight to go under 9.5 rounds (-115)
I like Cruz via KO/TKO/DQ, but that line is at -150, so there’s more value in the under here. Valenzuela has been stopped once in his career, three fights ago when he was dropped multiple times and stopped in the third round against Edwin De Los Santos. Cruz is a good fighter and his style matches up very well against Valenzuela to where he should be able to get inside and land shots that wear down and hurt Valenzuela in the early rounds. That should catch up to Valenzuela by the mid rounds and a stoppage could follow. As with any bet, it’s certainly possible that the fight heads to the cards but the value based on styles is on the fight not making it to Round 10.
Jared Anderson -190 vs. Martin Bakole +155
Fight to go the distance: Yes (+125)
There’s just enough danger in Bakole in managing to sneak out a win that I’m too cautious about Anderson via decision at +200, though I do think that’s also a good play. Anderson is the better fighter and should win, but after seeing him go the distance with Charles Martin and Ryad Merhy, there’s no reason to lean into thinking he’s going to wipe out Bakole, who is a plenty capable heavyweight in his own right. It’s heavyweight, so any fight can end in a blink, but this feels like something of a disappointing, slow fight waiting to happen. Take the fight going the distance on this one.
