We are through the group stage portion of the men’s basketball tournament at the 2024 Paris Olympics, which means it’s time for the knockout stage to begin. Eight teams are through to the quarterfinals after surviving an exciting slate of group games. South Sudan made history with its first Olympic win while we saw some impressive performances from teams like Japan and Brazil, the latter of which made it through to the quarterfinals. While Japan didn’t walk away with any wins, it did put an overtime scare into France, which suddenly doesn’t look as invincible as many thought the host country would be heading into the tournament.
With the quarterfinal field set, we now have a clearer picture of who will be in the running for that gold medal. Each team has played three games — three teams are a perfect 3-0 — so we have a better sense of which teams pose the biggest threat to Team USA in its quest for a fifth straight gold medal. While France hasn’t quite looked the part, Canada and Germany have proven to be dangerous adversaries and, based on the way the brackets are set, could meet USA in a possible gold medal match.
Before the quarterfinals start on Tuesday, here’s how the remaining eight teams competing in the men’s basketball tournament rank.
8. Brazil
Brazil advances to the quarterfinals of the Olympic competition for the first time since 2012, and while that’s a great accomplishment to celebrate, it will run into Team USA, which has looked like a well-oiled machine through the group stage. Brazil got through to the knockout stage in its final game of group play, beating Japan 102-84 behind 33 points and 17 rebounds from 2014 first-round draft pick Bruno Caboclo. He has had himself quite the tournament so far, averaging 13 points and 7.3 rebounds on 55% from the field. Caboclo, who has played for four different NBA teams, put Brazil on his back against Japan, and he’s precisely the reason why the Brazilians have advanced in this tournament. But Team USA isn’t Japan. The Americans have the size to contain the 6-foot-9 Caboclo, and it will be up to the rest of Brazil to step up when that happens.
7. Greece
Giannis Antetokounmpo has willed Greece through to the quarterfinals, surviving a group that contained both Canada and Australia. After losing their first two matches against Canada and Spain, it looked unlikely the Greeks would get through to the knockout stage. But a 20-point, seven-rebound, six-assist performance from Antetokounmpo, as well as 18 points from Thomas Walkup, lifted Greece past Australia and helped it secure one of the quarterfinal spots. Greece was always going to go as far as Antetokounmpo could take them, and that still remains true. Now it faces Germany, which has looked unstoppable throughout this tournament. But if Greece wants to get past Germany, it will need to shoot better than 28% from 3-point territory like it did against Australia.
6. Australia
Australia is the weakest second-place team from the group stage entering the quarterfinals after going just 1-2 to open the tournament. That’s not a dig at Australia, but rather just shows how much talent was in its group, which was dubbed the “Group of Death” in this tournament. That aside, the Boomers are right where they should be in this competition, in contention for another medal after walking away with a bronze-medal finish at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. They’re being surprisingly led by Jock Landale, who is averaging 17.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists through the Boomers’ first three games. They’ll have a tough matchup against Serbia in the quarterfinals, and while Australia possesses more NBA-level talent, it has no answer for Serbian big man Nikola Jokic. But, if Australia can replicate the performance it had against Spain, where five players scored in double figures, then it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the Boomers in the semifinals playing for another medal.
5. France
The French have been rather disappointing in this competition: almost losing to Japan, being in a close contest with Brazil and then falling behind by 24 points against Germany en route to a loss. France was supposed to be the biggest threat to Team USA in this competition, and it’s also why Team USA recruited Joel Embiid to play for the Stars and Stripes. The Americans needed more depth down low to defend the French twin towers of Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama. But so far, Les Bleus have looked anything but dominant. Wemby has looked great in his first Olympic competition, averaging 17 points, 10.7 rebounds and three assists, all of which lead France so far in this tournament. But he can’t do it all, and if France can’t get more out of its backcourt, the host country will have an incredibly difficult time against Canada in the quarterfinals.
4. Serbia
Serbia got blown out by Team USA in the group stage, but it looked dominant in the other two games, thanks to strong play from Nikola Jokic, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Vasilije Micic. Bogdanovic has led Serbia in the first three games with 19 points, while shooting 54% from the field and 53% from 3-point range. The only issue Serbia has here is its play falling off when Jokic is on the bench. The Serbs got pummeled by USA when Jokic wasn’t on the floor, and while that wasn’t as much of an issue against Puerto Rico and South Sudan, the rest of the teams in the tournament are better equipped to attack that weakness. But when Serbia is shooting the ball well, it’s difficult to stop. Couple that with Jokic controlling everything on offense and Bogdanovic knocking shots down, and this team could find itself in a medal game if it gets past the quarterfinals.
3. Germany
Germany has done a great job showing why it’s the defending FIBA World Cup champions. Entering the 2024 Olympics, I was unsure if the Germans would be able to replicate that success, given the weaker talent pool that competed during last summer’s World Cup. But they’ve answered every call so far. Germany blew out France, something no one expected to happen, and finished the rest of the group stage undefeated. Franz Wagner has elevated his game to another level and is third in the competition in scoring, averaging 21.7 points per game. Dennis Schroder is not far behind at 19.7 points a game. This German team has been a well-oiled machine so far in the tournament, and by performing so well, it enters the knockout stage on the opposite side of the bracket of Team USA. It faces Greece in the quarterfinals, and while Antetokounmpo will be a tough test, Germany has proven it can defend against size.
2. Canada
Canada’s on-paper talent has lived up to expectations so far. RJ Barrett has looked phenomenal, averaging 21 points a game, which ranks fourth in the competition. It got through the group unscathed, making quick work of Greece and Australia. Then it survived a scare against Spain on the strength of the roster and behind excellent guard play led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Canada’s going to be a tough draw for anyone in this competition, and while it might not have the size to contend with the United States on that front, the Canucks have the defense and scoring to put up a fight if those two teams meet in the gold-medal match. They’re on opposite sides of the bracket, a blessing for Canada, but it won’t be an easy road ahead as it has to face a France team that is out to prove the doubters wrong.
1. United States
The Americans had some inconsistent performances in exhibition games leading up to the 2024 Olympics, but when the games started to matter, the stars showed up. Kevin Durant returned from injury and looked efficient as always. LeBron James proved that even at age 39, he can still be the best player on an Olympic roster. And Anthony Edwards is quickly rising to become an Olympic star just as he did last season in the NBA. Edwards is leading USA in scoring with 16.7 points per game, and to be doing that on a roster that features James, Durant and Stephen Curry is truly insane. The Americans can match up with anyone in this competition, and they have beaten their first three opponents by an average of 21.3 points. If Team USA continues to dominate, it will remain in the top spot on the power rankings.
