Team USA was never going to make it through the Olympics without getting tested by somebody. Sure enough, the third time was nearly the charm for Serbia. After getting blown out by Team USA in both an exhibition and group-play game, Serbia very nearly upset the favorites before getting defeated, 95-91, in an instant classic semifinal on Thursday. Now the Americans can breathe a sigh of relief… or can they?
France doesn’t quite have Serbia’s top-end talent. Nikola Jokic is the best player in the world. Victor Wembanyama may get there some day, but he isn’t yet. It hasn’t been quite as consistent as Serbia had been either. France very nearly lost to Japan in group play, and wouldn’t still be playing if it had. But big wins over Germany and Canada have France, the host country, in the gold medal game looking for vengeance against Team USA after losing in this same matchup in Tokyo three summers ago.
Both teams are 40 minutes away from winning the gold medal. Here are the three biggest questions heading into the biggest game of the Olympics.
1. Will Rudy Gobert play?
When France won silver in Tokyo, Rudy Gobert was the face of the team. He’s coming off of an NBA season in which he won Defensive Player of the Year and came three wins short of the NBA Finals. But after an uneven set of exhibitions and an underwhelming performance in group play, France decided to play smaller. Gobert has played only eight minutes in the knockout stage thus far. He claimed he had surgery on his finger before the quarterfinal game against Canada. His coach, Vincent Collet, said he didn’t. He just wanted to play a smaller lineup. Given how well players like Guerschon Yabusele and Mathias Lessort have played in his stead, it’s hard to argue with the results.
Of course, Team USA is a different animal. It’s hard to imagine Yabusele dominating LeBron James physically as easily as he did the frontlines for Germany and Canada. France isn’t a great shooting team. It has made 15-of-55 attempts from deep in the past two games. It’s just hard to imagine France winning a shootout with Team USA like Serbia nearly did. The path to winning is probably going to come on the defensive end.
The simplest scenario for a France victory would probably involve completely walling off the rim with Wembanyama and Gobert, and then hoping that Team USA has a bad shooting day from deep. That’s not exactly likely, but it’s plausible. It becomes much harder if Gobert isn’t playing. For all of the offensive fit issues he presents, he’s still the second-best player on this team. He probably has to play some sort of meaningful role for France to have a chance in this game.
2. What changes will Steve Kerr make?
Despite all of the consternation about Jayson Tatum’s role, he’s only been held out of two games, and both were against Serbia. He started two of Team USA’s other three games and played 20 bench minutes against Brazil. It’s entirely possible that Steve Kerr just views Serbia, specifically, as a bad matchup for Tatum. That would make some sense. Serbia is heavy on guards and big men, but not wings. Tatum’s shot has been a bit shaky for Team USA, and without it, his place in the offense is a bit uncertain. With LeBron James and Kevin Durant playing the lion’s share of minutes at forward, Kerr just might not have seen a sensible role for Tatum against Serbia.
Of course, it’s hard to take too much away from Team USA’s other games. Brazil, South Sudan and Puerto Rico were weak opponents that Team USA expected to defeat comfortably. We don’t know if Kerr views Tatum as a bad matchup for Serbia, or simply doesn’t trust him enough to play him in any big game when it’s close because Team USA’s big games thus far have only really come against Serbia.
In addition to the Tatum question, it looks like Kerr will also make a significant change in his starting five on Saturday. Shams Charania reports Durant will start in place of Jrue Holiday against France.
Kerr himself has talked about not wanting to play 11 players, and gold medal games tend to tighten rotations. Greg Popovich used nine players against France in Tokyo, for instance, and Durant played all but five minutes in that game. Mike Krzyzewski used only 10 in the 2008 gold medal game against Spain, and while he used all 12 in the 2012 rematch, Andre Iguodala, James Harden and Anthony Davis only got token minutes. Realistically, Kerr is probably going to rely most heavily on six or seven players with a few more getting some spot minutes off the bench. If Tatum can’t see the floor, that will be among the stories of the game whether or not Team USA wins gold.
3. Can this be the opening act of Wemby’s legendary career?
Victor Wembanyama is 20. It is not reasonable to expect him to lead the French team to victory over one of the most talented teams ever assembled. It wouldn’t be reasonable to expect that out of anyone given the talent disparity here.
But Wembanyama isn’t just anyone. He may only be 20, but he is probably the most tantalizing 20-year-old in the history of basketball. Players of his caliber usually have a couple of unprecedented feats on their resumes, and while none have overcome odds quite as long as these, there have been other young players to defy the traditional aging curve with achievements typically meant for veterans. Magic Johnson won Finals MVP as a rookie, for instance, and Wes Unseld won regular-season MVP.
Wembanyama has nothing to lose here. Nobody is going to blame him if he can’t overcome a roster full of superstars. But if Wembanyama grows into the sort of player we expect him to become, he is going to have a few unpredictably incredible feats to look back on. This has a chance to be a crowning achievement, an official declaration to the basketball world that he has arrived, and has perhaps ushered in a new era of French basketball dominance. The top two picks in the 2024 NBA Draft were French. They have the talent to compete with Team USA for years to come. In all likelihood, this game is a loss that Wembanyama eventually looks back on as motivation for future victories. But if he can pull this off, it would cap one of the most spectacular rookie years any basketball player has ever had and set him up for perhaps the most promising career we’ve ever seen.
