The Associated Press Top 25 poll was released earlier this week, putting the college football season officially on the horizon. With high praise comes lofty expectations, and historic data shows that at least one team ranked in the initial top 10 will finish the season unranked.
Since 2000, 45 preseason top-10 teams have finished the season unranked. USC was the most recent team (preseason ranked No. 6) to fall victim, and three programs fit the bill (Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Baylor) in 2022.
When examining the preseason poll, there are reasons to believe one of this year’s top 10 teams could follow a similar fate. While it would take something catastrophic for Georgia to go from preseason No. 1 to unranked, there are compelling cases for Florida State and reigning national champion Michigan to take a step back.
The Wolverines begin a new era this fall after winning their first national title since 1997. Sherrone Moore replaces Jim Harbaugh, who bounced for the NFL for the vacant job with the Los Angeles Chargers. Moore is tasked with replacing over a dozen key players who departed the program for the next level. Florida State also lost several key contributors from last year’s team. The Seminoles are looking to bounce back from a bitter end to the 2023 campaign that included a snub from the College Football Playoff field and a blowout 63-3 loss to Georgia in the Orange Bowl.
Preseason top 10 teams that finished unranked since 2015
| Year | School | Initial ranking |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | USC | 6 |
| 2022 | Texas A&M | 6 |
| 2022 | Oklahoma | 9 |
| 2022 | Baylor | 10 |
| 2021 | Texas A&M | 6 |
| 2021 | Iowa State | 7 |
| 2021 | North Carolina | 10 |
| 2020 | LSU | 6 |
| 2020 | Penn State | 7 |
| 2020 | Oregon | 9 |
| 2018 | Wisconsin | 4 |
| 2018 | Miami (FL) | 8 |
| 2018 | Auburn | 9 |
| 2017 | Florida State | 3 |
| 2016 | Notre Dame | 10 |
| 2015 | Auburn | 6 |
| 2015 | USC | 8 |
| 2015 | Georgia | 9 |
Our CBS Sports experts weighed in on which preseason AP top 10 could join this dubious list in 2024.
Texas
Preseason rank: No. 4
The Longhorns are a deserving preseason No. 4 and legitimate national championship contender. That said, the case is a little more complicated than people realize. Last year, Texas rode an elite run defense and explosive skill talent to the College Football Playoff. Almost every player from those two phases is gone. The incredible interior line duo of T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II are off to the NFL. So are top draft picks Xavier Worthy, Jonathan Brooks, Ja’Tavion Sanders and Adonai Mitchell. Texas’ red zone offense was one of the worst in the nation at converting red zone trips to touchdowns, and losing running back CJ Baxter to a season-ending injury certainly won’t help the Longhorns in that department. Texas reloaded in the transfer portal and has recruited well, but there’s no guarantee that the newcomers will be able to match last season’s production. Plus, the schedule is much more difficult now that the Longhorns are in the SEC. Games against No. 1 Georgia, No. 9 Michigan, No. 16 Oklahoma and No. 20 Texas A&M are all extremely loseable. Texas went 4-10 in one-score games in Steve Sarkisian’s first two seasons. Last year, the Longhorns were 3-2 in such contests. More close games are certainly on the docket in the Southeastern Conference. If there’s a slip-up against a team like Arkansas or Kentucky, the season could go the wrong direction. — Shehan Jeyarajah
Alabama
Preseason rank: No. 5
The ingredients for a championship are here, but so are the ingredients for a collapse as Kalen DeBoer gets his first taste of SEC football. The Crimson Tide could, in theory, start 2-2 as their final two games of September are at Wisconsin and vs. Georgia. October tilts against Tennessee and Missouri could also be challenging for a squad that has questions in the secondary and at receiver. Finally, November games at LSU and at Oklahoma will be major challenges leading into a tricky finale against rival Auburn. DeBoer is a great coach with a talented roster, but everyone will be adjusting on the fly against a series of tough opponents. That could make the Crimson Tide vulnerable to be this year’s top-10 bust. — David Cobb
Notre Dame
Preseason rank: No. 7
From the outset, there’s a chance Notre Dame immediately falls out of the AP’s top 10 if the Fighting Irish lose to Texas A&M later this month in College Station. That’s quite an opener on the road inside one of college football’s loudest venues without left tackle Charles Jagusah (out for the season) and breaking in a new quarterback, Riley Leonard, who’s coming off his own injury. The good news? Notre Dame will not face another nationally-ranked opponent until Week 11 at home against Florida State, so the wheels would have to come off for Marcus Freeman’s team to be out of the playoff conversation during the final month of the campaign. However, if the Fighting Irish lose to the only opponents of substance they take on all season, it’s hard to imagine poll voters holding a positive opinion of this group. The other potential losses on the schedule come via Louisville (Sept. 28), at Georgia Tech (Oct. 19) and at USC (Nov. 30). — Brad Crawford
Michigan
Preseason rank: No. 9
Michigan’s not going to look anything like the team that won a national championship around seven months ago. The Wolverines lost head coach Jim Harbaugh — rookie Sherrone Moore (Michigan’s former offensive coordinator) will replace him — and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter to the NFL. Running backs coach Mike Hart departed the program and the Wolverines have to replace 18 players who started at least half of the team’s games in 2023. That includes quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who was selected No. 10 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. The options to take his job are largely unproven. Factor in all that instability and inexperience with a schedule that sees Michigan play three preseason AP top-five teams and the margin for error seems very thin. — Will Backus
Florida State
Preseason rank: No. 10
Florida State could be due for a “Super Bowl loss-esque hangover” after a heartbreaking end to a historic season. The Seminoles lost over a dozen starters combined from both sides of the football last season, including star quarterback Jordan Travis. Florida State is pushing all its chips in on former Clemson and Oregon State quarterback DJ Uiagalelei. The schedule features three teams ranked in the initial rankings (No. 14 Clemson, No. 19 Miami and No. 7 Notre Dame) with games against SMU, North Carolina and Florida sprinkled in between. For Florida State to drop out of the rankings, they would likely have to lose at least four games. FSU’s in-state showdown with Florida on Nov. 30 could loom large for both rivals for different reasons. — Cameron Salerno
