Whether college football’s decision-makers will admit it or not, conference perception does matter. It influences the College Football Playoff selection process, where strength of schedule is an important metric for those teams on the fringe that didn’t do enough to earn an automatic bid.
Playing in a stronger conference, and winning more games in said conference, means thriving against a tough schedule. That brings eyeballs to a team and puts positive marks in front of the selection committee.
Conference talk is bound to dominate the 2024 college football season. In addition to the 12-team CFP, this will be the first year that the major wave of league realignment finally settles. The SEC’s ranks swelled to 16 teams, while the Big Ten expanded its geographical footprint in a major way by adding four elite West Coast institutions.
Even the Big 12 and the ACC had their fun, with the former benefitting from the Pac-12’s dissolution and the latter grabbing one of the Group of Five’s best in SMU. Since the summer of 2021, there’s been a lot of shuffling.
With those changes finally hitting the field, though, it felt appropriate to assess how each of the nine FBS conferences stacked up against one another.
1. SEC
The SEC may have had its streak of four straight national championships broken last season, but it’s primed to climb right back to the mountaintop this year. Newcomers Texas and Oklahoma add five College Football Playoff appearances to the SEC’s already robust war chest, and the Longhorns landed at No. 4 in the preseason AP Top 25. Georgia took the top spot and Alabama and Ole Miss came in at five and six, respectively, giving the SEC two-thirds of the top six teams.
This league’s way deeper than that, though. Factor in teams like Missouri, LSU and Tennessee, and almost half of the SEC has a realistic shot at making the 12-team playoff. Beyond that top tier, there are plenty of teams with 8- or 9-win upside. An overwhelming majority of the SEC should at least make a bowl game. There’s some ridiculous depth here.
2. Big Ten
The Big Ten isn’t too far behind. Though it might not have the SEC’s sheer quantity, the nation’s most expansive conference does keep pace when it comes to heavy hitters. No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Oregon were the only non-Georgia teams to receive first-place votes in the AP poll, and both are seen as a legitimate threat to bring the College Football Playoff National Championship trophy back to Big Ten country for a second year in a row. Reigning champion Michigan isn’t far behind, though the Wolverines lost a lot to the NFL, and Penn State has a chance to pounce now that the divisional format is a thing of the past. Newcomers USC (No. 23 in the AP poll) and Washington, which won’t open the year ranked after its run to the national title game last year, bring some intrigue as well. And never discount Iowa. The Hawkeyes are always liable to punt their way to 10 wins and playoff contention.
3. Big 12
The Big 12 may not be stuffed to the gills with national championship contenders, but it will be the most entertaining conference to watch on a week-to-week basis. That counts for a lot. No. 12 Utah, the only Big 12 team to land in the top-15 of the AP poll, was picked to win the conference in its first year as a member, though it’s far from a slam dunk. Kansas State (No. 19) and Oklahoma State (No. 14) each received double-digit first-place votes in the preseason media poll, while Kansas and Arizona also got some recognition for the top spot. Iowa State and West Virginia are both sleeper teams. Knowing the Big 12, one of the perceived bottom-half teams is bound to sneak up on some folks and wreak havoc this year. Every game day in this conference will bring the chaos. Pure college football bliss.
4. ACC
The ACC is ripe with interesting storylines this year. Clemson is trying to regain its former glory, Florida State is recovering from a devastating end to the 2023 season and Miami is trying to finally live up to the perennial hype that it generates. Those are the three early favorites to take the conference crown, but some darkhorses outside the top three can certainly make things interesting. Virginia Tech and NC State are laden with experience, while Georgia Tech has a knack for playing up to its opponents under Brent Key. Even newcomer SMU, which is ponying up significant resources in its transition from the AAC, has some hope at leaving an impression.
It’ll be interesting to see how the selection committee treats any non-ACC champion fringe playoff teams. The past hasn’t necessarily been kind and a few conferences seem more well-positioned to produce multiple CFP teams, champions or not. Also hurting the ACC’s place on this list is the fact that, as things stand right now, it looks like a lot of the teams in the lower half of the conference standings will have an uphill battle to bowl eligibility.
5. AAC
The American Athletic Conference once again stands above its peers. The AAC is still the only Group of Five conference to produce a College Football Playoff team — Cincinnati in 2021 — and would have sent a team under the current format 12-team seven times since 2015. But it’s not just the past elevating the AAC’s ranking here. Preseason favorite Memphis has as good a shot as any other Group of Five team to make the playoff if it can live up to expectations. The Tigers return 17 starters from 2023’s 10-win squad, including the program’s most prolific passer in quarterback Seth Henigan. Even with SMU out of the fold, the AAC also returns three teams that managed at least nine wins a year ago.
6. Mountain West
Few Group of Five teams have generated as much offseason buzz as Boise State. Spencer Danielson’s team was picked to finish first in the conference’s media poll, and many expect the Broncos to make a CFP run. It helps when you have a former five-star quarterback in Malachi Nelson and one of the nation’s best offensive playmakers in running back Ashton Jeanty. Air Force — which spent some time ranked in 2023 — UNLV and Fresno State are also strong squads that should win some big games.
7. Sun Belt
It’s called the “Fun Belt” for a reason, folks. Twelve of 14 Sun Belt teams qualified for a bowl game in 2023, more than any other conference. Two of those — James Madison and Troy — managed to win 11 games each. Texas State and South Alabama produced a pair of the season’s most impressive wins when they knocked off Baylor and Oklahoma State, respectively. No stranger to monumental upsets, Appalachian State is favored to win the Sun Belt for the first time since 2021. Double-digit wins in such a strong conference could be enough to propel the Mountaineers to even more.
8. Conference USA
Liberty is carrying a lot of the weight here. Given what the Flames have coming back and what coach Jamey Chadwell has accomplished in his career, they should run the table in the regular season and ride an undefeated record to a potential playoff appearance. But New Mexico State is coming off its own 10-win season, Jacksonville State impressed in its first year as an FBS team and Western Kentucky is one of the more stable programs in America. Those were the only four C-USA teams with a winning record in 2023. The addition of Kennesaw State doesn’t do a ton to lift the conference’s profile.
9. MAC
The MAC may not have a realistic path to the College Football Playoff, nor will it flirt with a New Year’s Six bowl, but it doesn’t lack in quality teams. Miami (OH) and Toledo are expected to duke it out for the title again after combining for 22 wins last year. Ohio is a consistent presence near the top, while Bowling Green and Northern Illinois are looking to build off last season’s bowl appearances.
