The Brinson Model™ returns! After a reasonably triumphant year for my full-season win-loss projections, we’re back for another season of trying to nail every single NFL team’s record correctly.
Looking back on last season is a harsh reminder of how hard it is to actually predict exact NFL team records. After all, this is a game played with an inflated, oblong piece of big butt that loves to bounce around randomly and create total chaos over a relatively short sample size.
I hit just three teams (49ers, Seahawks, Titans) exactly, but had another 10 within one game of their exact win total, another five within two games and another eight within three games. My average differential was 2.25 while the mean differential for all of my picks was an even two games.
The biggest mistake I made was essentially flipping Carolina and the Bucs. Whoops! The Browns and Bengals QB situations and end results created an eight-game swing for me as well. I was much, much higher on the Texans than the market and still didn’t give them enough credit. Same for the Rams. I was much lower than the market on the Chargers but somehow not low enough! On the other hand, my Patriots projection was humiliating in hindsight.
Let’s run it back. Once again, send your complaints to @WillBrinson on Twitter/X and with the same handle on Instagram.
Arizona Cardinals
DraftKings win total: 6.5 (over -150)
Brinson projected record: 7-10
The Cardinals seem to have somehow become a consensus fun/frisky team for 2024. Kyler Murray flashed some upside last year in this intriguing offense, and after floating in purgatory last offseason, the Cards firmly committed to their QB this offseason, doubling down and getting him Marvin Harrison Jr. as an elite WR to pair with Trey McBride. Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch are suddenly nice little secondary weapons in this offense. Jonathan Gannon’s intro presser experience gave a lot of people reasonable pause about the coaching in Arizona, but maybe he’s just a Nick Sirriani clone but on defense, as the coaching was strong in Arizona last year. This is still a rebuilding project, especially in a really tough division, but it wouldn’t shock me if the Cards were in the playoff hunt late, especially if the defense takes any kind of step forward.
Atlanta Falcons
DraftKings win total: 9.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected record: 10-7
It’s hard not to be excited about the Falcons this year. Last year’s team was a lot of frustration, with the top-10 offensive weapons on the roster largely underused. Now Zac Robinson comes to town along with pricey free agent Kirk Cousins, and you can hear the excitement when guys like Drake London and Bijan Robinson talk about this offense. Kyle Pitts should be in line for the season everyone’s been waiting on as well. The only way this offense fails is a Cousins injury, and Atlanta drafted Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall, giving it some insurance on that front. There’s nothing wrong with questioning the defensive chops here, especially after passing on a first-round pass rusher for Penix, but I trust Raheem Morris to get the most out of this unit. He’s been an excellent coordinator in his career, and there are some similarities to the Rams on this defensive roster.
Baltimore Ravens
DraftKings win total: 10.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected record: 12-5
There are lots of people projecting a lot of regression for the Ravens this year, in large part due to free agency attrition, as well as the departure of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. There’s major, and viable, concern with the offensive line in front of Lamar Jackson as well. But I think Baltimore ends up being a fairly steady team that will “surprise” some people. Zach Orr takes over as defensive coordinator. He’s highly thought of and should be able to minimize the drop-off from Macdonald. More concerning is the departure of guys like Patrick Queen and Geno Stone, particularly since those two left for division rivals in free agency. Offensively this team could take a leap forward off of Jackson’s second MVP season. It’s his second year in Todd Monken’s system and it feels like his weapons could be improved. Zay Flowers is in his second year, the team is really high on Rashod Bateman, and the duel combo of Mark Andrews/Isaiah Likely is pretty strong. The offensive linemen were all drafted in house, and the Ravens are excellent at drafting and developing, so I think it may be less of a problem than people think.
Buffalo Bills
DraftKings win total: 10.5 (under -155)
Brinson projected record: 10-7
Josh Allen is my MVP pick this year, and part of that is him having a division-winning, toss-the-team-on-my-back season after the Bills traded Stefon Diggs this offseason. The narrative here is the Bills will crater and people seem to be rooting against them. I’m not totally sold on Joe Brady as an OC, but I think his play-calling fits with these weapons: he’s going to feed James Cook and continue to run Allen in the red zone. The combo of Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir with the potential for a massive breakout from Dalton Kincaid gives this offense a lot more upside than people are giving it credit for. Sean McDermott’s noted this might be the best OL of his tenure in Buffalo. I’m buying the dip. The Bills defensively have some pass rush concerns and are in the middle of changing over personnel, but I still trust McDermott to get the most out of this group. Von Miller needs to be a much bigger plus than last year.
Carolina Panthers
DraftKings win total: 5.5 (over -115)
Brinson projected record: 6-11
What could go wrong??? After being high on Carolina last year and being SO wrong, I’m back to being a little more bullish on the Panthers once again. There’s several underlying statistical reasons (a bad record in one-score games and their point differential last year) to believe they can win more games in 2024. But you can also point to coaching — Dave Canales is an unknown, but the coaching staff is at least all on the same page now — which is an upgrade for Carolina. It’s going to run the heck out of the ball this season, which will accentuate the strength of the offensive linemen on this roster and minimize the exposure of Bryce Young to tons of pass rush pressures. Getting Diontae Johnson via trade and drafting Xavier Legette in the first round automatically means the Panthers have upgraded the skill guys. Losing Brian Burns is brutal for the defense, but there’s enough talent on that side of the ball for Carolina to hang around in games and steal some wins.
Chicago Bears
DraftKings win total: 8.5 (over -165)
Brinson projected record: 8-9
The annual hype surrounding the Bears is building to its normal outrageous levels, but — insert Tobias Fünke meme here — maybe this is actually the year when we should be buying in. Caleb Williams has massive upside as a rookie, and he landed in one of the better landing spots for a young quarterback, with the Bears adding Keenan Allen (trade) and Rome Odunze (draft) to D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet. D’Andre Swift was a sneaky free agency addition who gives Williams another outlet option. The offensive line is probably the best Chicago’s had in a few years. Can Matt Eberflus carry over the late-season defensive production into 2024? Once the Bears acquired Montez Sweat in a midseason trade, things really seemed to take off. If that’s the case, I might be underselling them here. They definitely qualify as a sleeper playoff team in the NFC.
Cincinnati Bengals
DraftKings win total: 10.5 (over -140)
Brinson projected record: 11-6
The bull case for the Bengals is pretty obvious: positive regression in terms of quarterback health. Joe Burrow‘s borderline “injury prone” at this point, but maybe that blonde wig he showed up to training camp with will ward off the evil injury spirits. Ja’Marr Chase isn’t practicing because of a contract situation, but I expect him to be full go. Tee Higgins isn’t happy about his tag, but he’s going to play. Zack Moss and Chase Brown may be a sneaky massive upgrade for Cincy at running back. The loss of OC Brian Callahan is certainly a concern, but I think Zac Taylor — who was calling plays anyway — and Burrow at QB will be able to patch that problem fairly handily. Defensively the Bengals were dead last in yards per play allowed last season. I anticipate an improvement there, even with D.J. Reader out the door. Sheldon Rankins will help fill that void, and bringing back Geno Stone from a division rival should help the back end of this defense in a big way.
Cleveland Browns
DraftKings win total: 8.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected record: 7-10
I had the Browns on my list of seven teams who could miss the postseason in 2024 and, quite naturally, Browns fans are thrilled. Defensively, I’m a little concerned about Cleveland repeating its performance last year. Jim Schwartz is one of my fave defensive coordinators (can we please get him and Harbaugh 2.0?), but the Browns were very up and down in terms of their performance depending on home/road splits. That’s a red flag. On the other side of the ball, their biggest loss may be OL coach Bill Callahan, who joined his son Brian in Tennessee. Mix in an unknown timeline for Nick Chubb, and I think you can make the case this top-tier rushing offense could fall off a cliff. D’Onta Foreman, their short-yardage back, suffered a scary injury in training camp, too. Things are getting thin at running back already. How can anyone possibly suggest Deshaun Watson will be good again? We haven’t seen it in more than three years. Maybe a new Kevin Stefanski throw-heavy system, plus the addition of Jerry Jeudy, will help Watson get his performance level back up, but I think Stefanski would prefer having Baker Mayfield still on the team given his system. There’s just a lot of unknown here and it revolves around Watson.
Dallas Cowboys
DraftKings win total: 10.5 (under -180)
Brinson projected record: 11-6
The range of outcomes for the Cowboys this year is pretty wide, as you can tell by me having them on my “might miss the playoffs” list and simultaneously putting them down for 11 wins in The Brinson Model™️. I actually have them starting pretty slow out of the gate, going just .500 over their first six weeks before catching fire thanks to a fairly friendly schedule featuring lots of home games in the second half. If the offensive line doesn’t fall apart, I trust Mike McCarthy to get the most out of Dak Prescott. The playoffs might be a problem, but he’s won 12 games in three straight years. CeeDee Lamb is gonna play even if it’s on a lame-duck deal. Brandin Cooks is a decent No. 2 option, Jake Ferguson is a semi-sneaky potential breakout candidate this year, and the running back room with Rico Dowdle may be better than anyone expects. My biggest concern is the defense with Dan Quinn gone, but Mike Zimmer has enough options on that side of the ball for a reclamation project.
Denver Broncos
DraftKings win total: 5.5 (under -125)
Brinson projected record: 7-10
I found myself a little surprised to be so low on the Broncos this year considering my affinity for Sean Payton as a coach. It’s mostly a byproduct of a really difficult division and the total unknown of the quarterback position in Denver. Bo Nix kind of HAS to play after being taken 12th overall this year, right? If he doesn’t, it’s a huge red flag. Javonte Williams is going to really surprise some folks, I think, and if they can block up front, he could have a massive year. The receiver group is a little concerning, and I’m not entirely sure how great the defense is going to be, either. But I also think it’s easy to forget the Broncos actually won eight games last year and nearly got involved in the playoff hunt late. If they went 9-8 and Nix was a star because Payton is an incredible quarterback coach and offensive mind, I wouldn’t be surprised at all.
Detroit Lions
DraftKings win total: 10.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected record: 11-6
Do the Lions have the best top-to-bottom roster in the NFL now? Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell have done an incredible job building out this Lions team to the point it would be shocking if the Lions didn’t make the postseason this year. Jared Goff and this offense play three games all year long outdoors — yes, three total games outdoors. This could be fireworks, especially if Jameson Williams makes the strides Campbell indicates he could. Jahmyr Gibbs is lining up in the slot a bunch during camp, meaning we could get he and David Montgomery on the field together a ton. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are studs. The biggest concern for the offensive output here would be the defense taking a big step forward, especially on the back end. Detroit’s front seven looks strong, but the secondary gave up a ton of pass yards last year, causing Detroit to invest. That may be bad for fantasy but won’t matter one lick for the Lions being a really great football team.
Green Bay Packers
DraftKings win total: 9.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected record: 10-7
Another team with a massive range of outcomes depending on what the Packers get from Jordan Love this year. As I’ve noted plenty of times, Love was a borderline starter for the first half of the season last year and a unanimous MVP level player the second half of the season. He’s got piles of weapons this year and a brand new contract, so expectations should be high. The early-season schedule isn’t “easy” and starting the season in Brazil is very unusual, but it wouldn’t be shocking if the Pack got off to a hot start and kept it rolling for much of the season. I’m bullish on Love with all his different weapons, especially so if Christian Watson stays healthy this season. The defense should be upgraded in large part because of Jeff Hafley joining on as defensive coordinator.
Houston Texans
DraftKings win total: 9.5 (over -140)
Brinson projected record: 10-7
The sky is the limit for Houston, but the expectations could be a problem here. C.J. Stroud is the second favorite MVP candidate in the entire NFL. Adding Stefon Diggs to Tank Dell and Nico Collins is just fun and Joe Mixon could fit what this offense does well. It’s hard to question the defense because of DeMeco Ryans‘ chops as a coach and because of his success everywhere he’s been. They also added Danielle Hunter as a pass-rush option and Kamari Lassiter in the secondary, with both guys getting good buzz this offseason. If Lassiter is a stud and Derek Stingley Jr. keeps developing, that is one filthy combo. My biggest concerns are honestly just the hype and the division: the Texans may just be ready to deliver on the former, and even if they don’t max out their potential, they could still take home the AFC South crown.
Indianapolis Colts
DraftKings win total: 8.5 (under -125)
Brinson projected record: 8-9
Another team with a crazy level of variation and, naturally, it revolves around Anthony Richardson. If you told me AR played five games and the Colts struggled this season I’d buy it. If you told me AR won MVP this season and the Colts were a 12-win powerhouse, I’d buy that too. I don’t want to peg Richardson as an injury-prone guy one year into his career, but he got banged up a lot and it happened early. Still, there’s a lot to like here. Shane Steichen is a really good offensive coach, and it sounds like this team will want to play fast. Michael Pittman is signed and AD Mitchell is in the mix via the draft, along with Josh Downs, Alec Pierce and some fun tight end pieces. The offensive line needs to get back to where it was a few years ago and keep Richardson upright.
Jacksonville Jaguars
DraftKings win total: 8.5 (over/under -110)
Brinson projected record: 9-8
The margins are going to be snug in a really tough AFC South. The Jaguars were the Texans this time last year, with Trevor Lawrence getting MVP hype and the Jags being considered a legit Super Bowl contender. They didn’t even make the postseason after collapsing down the stretch, but Lawrence was a lot more hurt than people realized. If he’s healthy this year, the offense should be substantially better, particularly with the addition of Gabe Davis in free agency and Brian Thomas Jr. as a first-round pick. Defensively, the Arik Armstead signing was massive in the moment but is maybe flying under the radar as we head into the season. Add in Darnell Savage and they have five former first-round picks on the defense. It’s time for this unit to produce, and the addition of Ryan Nielsen as DC could be the jolt it needs.
Kansas City Chiefs
DraftKings win total: 11.5 (over -115)
Brinson projected record: 12-5
The unfathomable finally happened in 2023: The Chiefs went under their win total for the first time since Andy Reid took over in Kansas City way back in 2013. And they promptly won the division and then won the Super Bowl. Naturally. Now KC is trying for a three-peat, and in order to bolster the offense, Reid and GM Brett Veach added Hollywood Brown in free agency and Xavier Worthy in the first round of the draft. Patrick Mahomes now has some actual vertical threats who will pair perfectly with Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice eating up underneath. Losing L’Jarius Sneed on defense hurts for sure, but this unit has quietly been awesome the last few years and shouldn’t drop off much. Steve Spagnuolo deserves a ton of credit for helping develop some excellent young picks, and Veach as well for finding it and retaining most of it. I could see the Chiefs not putting their foot on the gas all season to save up for the playoffs. Or maybe they just bash everyone on offense to let people know.
Las Vegas Raiders
DraftKings win total: 6.5 (over -130)
Brinson projected record: 6-11
Tough team to figure out in Las Vegas. I think I may be selling the Raiders short because of their overall roster, but I also have major questions about the quarterback and the issues they’re going to face in the division. Is Gardner Minshew really the answer in free agency? I love the Brock Bowers pick, but it also feels a bit redundant with Michael Mayer in the fold, even though there was a new regime in town. Antonio Pierce did an awesome job with this team down the stretch last year, but interim coaches don’t often pan out in full-time roles. If the Raiders defense is as opportunistic as it was last year and the run game can be dominant, this team can easily outpace my projection and the Vegas win total. The schedule just has some really tough stretches as a result of playing in the AFC West.
Los Angeles Rams
DraftKings win total: 8.5 (over -155)
Brinson projected record: 12-5
Would you say I’m bullish on the Rams this year??? I think Matthew Stafford is set to have an incredible year, maybe more efficient than volume-based, thanks to the offseason upgrades Los Angeles made on offense. L.A. beefed up the run game on the interior by adding Jonah Jackson and Kevin Dotson. Colby Parkinson is one of the sneakiest additions in free agency and gives the team some fun athleticism at tight end with Tyler Higbee coming back from injury. Puka Nacua‘s preseason injury is a concern, but Cooper Kupp should be completely healthy to start the year and DeMarcus Robinson sets up as a really underrated third receiver in 11 personnel. Blake Corum is a perfect compliment to Kyren Williams. I have massive expectations for this offense –especially when it’ll need to score more points to make up for a slightly worse defense after losing Aaron Donald and Raheem Morris. I do love adding Jared Verse and Braden Fiske as a combo to replace the former.
Los Angeles Chargers
DraftKings win total: 8.5 (over -150)
Brinson projected record: 9-8
The Justin Herbert plantar injury could throw this whole division, and certainly this team, into complete flux. If Herbert’s healthy, I like the Chargers as a sneaky playoff team. Jim Harbaugh just wins, and he set this team up in his image early. Greg Roman’s run game behind this offensive line — chockfull of early draft picks — should produce enough to let Herbert and Josh Palmer/Ladd McConkey move the chains when they need to. And the defense didn’t lose anyone in the salary cap purge this offseason, meaning Harbs should be able to get the most out of what he inherited. The Harbaugh Bros don’t miss much when it comes to bringing in coordinators, and we’ve already seen Jesse Minter succeed under Jim in Ann Arbor. Herbert’s injury just needs to be watched as we get closer to the season because of how long it can linger.
Miami Dolphins
DraftKings win total: 9.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected record: 9-8
The Dolphins made it rain this offseason, paying both Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill to kick off training camp and Jaylen Waddle earlier in the offseason. They’ve locked in their core on offense for the next few years and this is absolutely a Super Bowl contender … if a few things break right. The offensive line needs to come together quickly ahead of Tua, with this run game setting up the lethal pass game. The perpetually underrated Raheem Mostert, second-year explosive back De’Von Achane and rookie Jaylen Wright have them primed for big things if the line is cooking. Jonnu Smith was a sneaky YAC addition. The defense has big problems because of injury: Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips are both going to be late coming back most likely and Christian Wilkins walked in free agency. The offense will need to carry things early in the season (as it did last year, not unfeasible!), but the Dolphins also need to figure out how to beat good teams and win when it is cold.
Minnesota Vikings
DraftKings win total: 6.5 (over -160)
Brinson projected record: 7-10
Vegas is not bullish on the Vikings this year. It’s understandable given the change at quarterback and even more understandable when the news broke this week that J.J. McCarthy suffered a season-ending torn meniscus during the preseason. That means Sam Darnold is starting Week 1 and likely playing the entire season. Going from Kirk Cousins to Darnold is a pretty massive dropoff, especially when you consider how sharp McCarthy looked in his first preseason action, especially when he didn’t even have Justin Jefferson out there. There’s still a lot on offense with JJ, Jordan Addison (suspension still lurking?) and some lower-tier wideouts plus T.J. Hockenson whenever he returns from injury, but it looks like they’re gonna have to run the heck out of the ball with Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler to win. Minny almost seems a little snakebit right now on offense. Another year of Brian Flores defense could be beneficial, although I’ve got concerns about some of the swaps they made on that side of the ball. The bigger concern is the division — if the Packers and Bears take the expected steps forward, it’s going to be really tough for the Vikings.
New England Patriots
DraftKings win total: 4.5 (over -150)
Brinson projected record: 5-12
For the first time in more than two decades, there’s no Bill Belichick in New England. And while change might have been necessary for the Pats, it sure does throw this season into complete question. Drake Maye is a uber-talented but streaky rookie behind a questionable offensive line with nominal weapons … and he might not even start to begin the season. Former NC State legend Jacoby Brissett is set to beat out another yet another UNC quarterback for a starting job, and his floor is better than that of Maye to start the season, but he’s still dealing with the same issues. DeMario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne (who’s on PUP) were joined by Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker in the draft, but the wideout group is still lacking. If Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson can actually spark the run game, there’s maybe a little more upside here offensively, but it’s hard to see the Pats being a top-half-of-the-league unit. Defensively there’s a much better chance of success, but even with Jerod Mayo capably running things, we’re still talking about a team that lost the best defensive coach in NFL history.
New Orleans Saints
DraftKings win total: 7.5 (over -120)
Brinson projected record: 6-11
You can tell the pressure is turned up on Dennis Allen simply by listening to some of his harsh quotes on various players leading up to the season. Things will be amplified with offensive line concerns — the unit that dominated in front of Drew Brees for the last few years has really fallen off, exacerbated by the preseason departure of Ryan Ramczyk. Taliese Fuaga needs to be a borderline star out of the gate at left tackle. And Klint Kubiak, replacing longtime OC Pete Carmichael, needs his offense to function well and quickly. There’s enough there for it to happen: Derek Carr, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are a nice trio, and if Alvin Kamara can rebound to his previous form, this offense could be fun to watch. The defense should maintain a high level and could even take a step forward if Chase Young can live up to expectations. The Saints underperformed their expected win total last year and went 3-6 in one-score games, so I’m potentially too low on them here if the offense can become more dynamic.
New York Giants
DraftKings win total: 6.5 (under -135)
Brinson projected record: 6-11
Man it is hard to be bearish on this team when you watch Malik Nabers training camp highlights. The first-round pick has been a non-stop highlight reel right up until he suffered a mild ankle sprain recently. Everything really comes down to Daniel Jones and the offensive line. If the protection holds up, maybe we get a healthy 2022 version of Danny Dimes and this team looks much better on offense. The departure of Saquon Barkley might be a good thing, because it should allow the offense to run a little more fluidly without trying to focus on one person. The addition of Brian Burns alongside Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux could make for a really nasty pass rush, one that could even make up for any shortcomings in the secondary.
New York Jets
DraftKings win total: 9.5 (over -150)
Brinson projected record: 9-8
I included the Jets as a team that could possibly make the leap into the playoffs after missing last year, and the entire logic behind this can be summed up in two words: Aaron Rodgers. Unfortunately, the four-time MVP and future Hall of Famer isn’t just a potentially great quarterback in 2024, but also a 40-year-old coming off an Achilles injury that cost him the entire 2023 season. Tyrod Taylor should keep the floor raised if Rodgers misses any time, because otherwise this is a pretty darn solid roster. The front office attacked the offensive line problem this offseason, adding Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses in free agency and Olu Fashanu in the draft. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are both viable OPOY candidates. The defense should be really good yet again, but it’s worth noting the Jets finished just 12th in points allowed last year and really only have a single season of great defensive play. There’s just a lot of variance here with Rodgers’ health.
Philadelphia Eagles
DraftKings win total: 10.5 (over -130)
Brinson projected record: 9-8
My projection is going against the Vegas implied success of the Eagles, and it’s in large part because of what I expect to be a slow-ish start for Philly. I still see it as a likely playoff team, but it draws the Packers and three quarters of the NFC South to start before a Week 5 bye. They have a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, and even if he’s an upgrade, there’s some concerns after seeing the Chargers last year, plus the natural acclimation time. The loss of Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox — the literal backbone of both the offense and defense, respectively — is kind of being glossed over this offseason. Howie Roseman did an outstanding job replacing the two ahead of time by drafting Cam Jurgens and Jordan Davis, but there’s a chance this team starts a little slow as they adjust to all the changes.
Pittsburgh Steelers
DraftKings win total: 8.5 (under -160)
Brinson projected record: 6-11
The quarterback concerns are pretty big in Pittsburgh. The Steelers upgraded to Russell Wilson/Justin Fields, but Wilson hasn’t even been on the field during much of training camp. That throws things into severe flux at the position. Fields could be a fantasy darling, but I don’t know if his athletic style of quarterbacking will necessarily translate to a bunch of wins. The departure of Diontae Johnson means the Steelers are lacking on the wide receiver depth chart. George Pickens has unlimited upside with his skillset. After him, there was buzz about Van Jefferson as their WR2, although Calvin Austin III and Roman Wilson have made some interesting noise in training camp. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are physical runners, and I tend to think an Arthur Smith offense is going to feature them heavily. I don’t expect this to be an explosive unit. Defensively, if the Steelers are the top-five unit they can be, this might end up looking like a foolish projection. Fifteen-plus games of T.J. Watt is an absolute must because of how this defense drops off when he’s out of the lineup.
San Francisco 49ers
DraftKings win total: 11.5 (under -125)
Brinson projected record: 11-6
The Niners have one of the most complete rosters in all of football. They’re coming off three straight years advancing to the NFC title game including a brutal overtime Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs last year. They are rightfully one of the top Super Bowl favorites. But there’s some cause for concern with the recent offseason developments. Christian McCaffrey suffered a calf injury that shouldn’t be a big deal but definitely has my antenna up. Brandon Aiyuk still might get traded or he might not! Trent Williams remains unhappy with his contract. There’s just a lot swirling around the Niners, and this is a massive number for any team. Note the Vegas juice here, with the expectation the 49ers end up coming in under 12 wins. The schedule isn’t particularly brutal, but there are enough pitfalls where I think 11-6 is firmly on the table, especially if the NFC West ends up being as good as we think it could be.
Seattle Seahawks
DraftKings win total: 7.5 (over -135)
Brinson projected record: 9-8
The Seahawks are a tough projection because of the wholesale changes occurring across the organization. The personnel is largely unchanged, but Mike MacDonald represents the Seahawks’ first new coach in a long time and should bring with him an interesting new approach. Pete Carroll is a Hall of Famer, but MacDonald bringing in offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb could result in some splashy offensive production. Geno Smith (or even Sam Howell) have three exciting receivers in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to utilize in the same way the three Washington rookies were used last year at the college level. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet provide big-play potential in the backfield and we might finally get a Noah Fant breakout. MacDonald’s killed it on defense for years with the Ravens, so the expectations are high for that side of the ball as well. I’m a little higher on Seattle than Vegas and certainly see the Seahawks as a playoff sleeper this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DraftKings win total: 7.5 (over -150)
Brinson projected record: 9-8
Everyone counted out the Bucs in a BAD way last year and Baker Mayfield and Co. jammed it in everyone’s face. I’m extremely terrified of it happening again with this projection, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Tampa won the division again. It could even win it at 9-8, so maybe I’m not that far off. Regardless, no one will run away with the NFC South. The bull case for he Bucs is pretty easy: adding Jalen McMillan will help the passing game, even more so if new OC Liam Coen moves Chris Godwin to the slot. Early returns for Graham Barton paint the picture of another first-round OL hit by GM Jason Lichte. The defense has several studs on it already (Vita Vea, Antoine Winfield Jr., etc) and some other high-caliber players who could emerge this year and make Tampa a contender again. Vegas obviously agrees with a heavily juiced over here.
Tennessee Titans
DraftKings win total: 6.5 (under -135)
Brinson projected record: 6-11
Yet another total wild card with the full-blown changeover from a previous regime. For me, it was always going to be a hard sell on whoever replaced Mike Vrabel, but I’m high on Brian Callahan and what this team has in place for 2024. DeAndre Hopkins‘ injury is concerning but he should be back early in the regular season, plus the addition of Calvin Ridley gives them a little wiggle room. Callahan bringing his dad, Bill Callahan, is massive for the offensive line, not to mention the addition of JC Latham in the first round. Defensively this team is a total wild card, and if the defense isn’t good we could see the offense throwing the ball a TON. I don’t think the Titans will necessarily be “good” this year, but I think we’ll see enough from Will Levis and the new coaching staff to the point everyone sort of thinks that even a six-win season could be considered a positive step forward.
Washington Commanders
DraftKings win total: 6.5 (over -130)
Brinson projected record: 7-10
Another wholesale change when it comes to the regime in charge — Dan Quinn is in and he brought Kliff Kingsbury with him as well as a new quarterback in Jayden Daniels, whom the Commanders drafted second overall following his Heisman season. The offensive line is a major concern, but maybe Daniels’ mobility can make up for it? There are enough weapons here to maaaaaybe make a bull case for competing in the NFC East, but Terry McLaurin needs to be his usual consistent self, Jahan Dotson needs to live up to his draft billing and Austin Ekeler needs to find the fountain of youth. This team will play fast on offense and needs Quinn to figure out how to elevate a middle-tier defense if it wants to complete. Things should be on the upswing in Washington, though.
