We’ve probably had a decent idea regarding what the best races down the stretch would be for a while, but since we’re now past the halfway point of August, let’s assess.
Our perfect world would be if every single race were close going to the last week of the season with, ideally, the maximum amount of chaos. Everything being so close that the tiebreaker rules get complicated is the dream scenario. That won’t happen, obviously, but we dare to dream around these parts.
The wild-card races are so fluid at this point that we’ll focus on the divisions this week.
AL East
The Yankees are, well, the Yankees — a marquee, if not the marquee, sports franchise of North America. The Orioles won 101 games last season in their first playoff berth after a radical rebuild that rendered them as one of the more irrelevant teams across sports for a stretch. No more, as they have a ton of talent and can stand toe to toe with any titan.
The two teams are duking it out this season in a flurry of back-and-forths. The Orioles’ biggest lead was three games. The Yankees’ biggest lead was 4 1/2 games. The Orioles have been in first for 76 days while the Yankees have been there 108. The Red Sox hang within striking range, but it really feels like we’re getting a wire-to-wire Orioles-Yankees battle.
Sure enough, things are deadlocked right now with 37 games to play.
They have three games left against each other and those take place in the final week of the season (Sept. 24-26 at Yankee Stadium). I’m not expecting much, if any, separation before then in the standings. For those curious, the Orioles lead the season series, six games to four.
Level of fun: Crank it up. This one goes to 11 162 (hopefully).
AL Central
The Guardians have a shot to pull off one of those seasons where they were basically in first the entire time. They trailed by 1 1/2 games heading into April 2 and were half a game back after a doubleheader on April 13. They haven’t been down since, so if they hold the lead until clinching the division, it’ll have the feel of “led all year.” The lead got as high as nine games. The Twins and Royals, however, have proven difficult to shake and there’s a chance at a very nice three-team race here.
In fact, the Guardians’ lead over the third-place Royals is only three games with the Twins two back.
The Guardians’ task is right in front of them, too. Starting Monday, Aug. 26, they face the Royals seven times in 10 games and then there’s a four-game series against the Twins in mid-September. Also, the Twins visit the Royals Sept. 6-8.
Level of fun: Due to the head-to-head action, this has the capability to be the most fun the rest of the way. With none of the games coming in the last week and a half, it could also get put away. This is like going to a new movie from a beloved franchise. The expectations are high and could be met or even exceeded (hello, “Creed” movies), but there’s also the chance for a major letdown (sigh, “The Rise of Skywalker”).
AL West
The Astros started 12-24. The World Series champion Rangers are still nursing that hangover, apparently. The Mariners had a 10-game lead at one point! Might this be the year the Mariners take back the AL West for the first time since 2001?
Well, since June 19, the Astros have turned a 10-game deficit into a four-game lead. The second-best team in the division in that time has been the A’s. The third-best has been the Trout-less Angels. This doesn’t bode well for the Mariners. The Rangers are cooked.
There are three games left between the Mariners and Astros, in Houston from Sept. 23-25. I fear those games won’t even matter.
Level of fun: It isn’t there yet, but my hunch is this becomes a bore. The Mariners haven’t been good for two months while the Astros have played at a full-season 102-win pace since that dreadful start.
NL East
The Braves were an overwhelming favorite heading into the season, but instead the Phillies have had control for most of it. The lead now for the Phils is seven games over the Braves and nine over the Mets.
Level of fun: I just yawned, but the Braves could wake me up starting Tuesday, when they host the Phillies for a three-game series. Sweep that and the lead is only four games and we’ve got something cooking.
NL Central
Heading into the season, this was thought to be the most wide-open division with all five teams having a shot to win it. Instead, it’s the biggest laugher. In fact, I’m calling it. It’s over. The Brewers have won the Central.
Level of fun: An utter snoozefest.
NL West
The Dodgers have won the NL West 10 of the last 11 seasons and the one time they didn’t, they won 106 games. Their worst position in the standings this season was tied for first and that hasn’t happened since March 31. They have led by as many as nine games.
And yet, the Padres and Diamondbacks both got scorching hot (the D-backs’ run started in late June, the Padres’ was after the All-Star break) and made this a race. The Dodgers won on Sunday while the other two contenders lost, pushing this Dodgers lead to three games over San Diego and four over Arizona.
The Dodgers face the D-backs four more times (in Arizona from Aug. 30-Sept. 2) and Padres for three more (at Dodger Stadium from Sept. 24-26).
If they pull up close to even with the Dodgers, how about the final series of the season being Padres at Diamondbacks? Possibly spicy!
Level of fun: Under the circumstances, I’m downright giddy. The most likely outcome is the Dodgers winning this thing with a few games to spare, but — as noted above — we dare to dream here.
Biggest Movers
|
Rk |
Teams |
Chg |
Rcrd |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
 Phillies |
I figured they’d get their mojo back with a week at home against the Marlins and Nationals and 4-2 qualifies as a good homestand, even if 5-1 or 6-0 would’ve been far more emphatic. The Phillies do have baseball’s best record, though three teams are only half a game behind and two more are just one game back. Think about how ridiculous it is to have six teams within one game of baseball’s best record on Aug. 19. | 2 | 73-51 |
| 2 |
Dodgers |
Shohei Ohtani now has 39 homers and 37 stolen bases. He’s almost certainly about to join Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano and Ronald Acuña Jr. in the 40-40 club, but it’s only Aug. 19. He could well become the first-ever 50-50 guy. I know we’d rather the multiples of 10, but no one else has even been 45-45 before. Even though he’s not pitching, it is yet another special Ohtani season. | 2 | 74-52 |
| 3 |
Yankees |
I probably could’ve justified leaving them at the top, but they lost by 10 to the White Sox and dropped a series to the Tigers. That isn’t worthy. | 2 | 73-52 |
| 4 |
Orioles |
If you feel like the Orioles are simply treading water, your gut serves you well. They are 15-14 since the All-Star break and 20-21 since the start of July. Not falling apart at this point is enough to stay in the mix for the top spot. | 2 | 73-53 |
| 5 |
Brewers |
The Brewers have won 10 of their last 13 and this came against the Braves, Reds, Dodgers and Guardians. They are doing this without Christian Yelich, too. Just an unbelievable season from this bunch in light of the injury adversity they’ve faced. | 3 | 72-52 |
| 6 |
Guardians |
Cleveland isn’t far from Sandusky, home to the roller coaster capital of the world (hey, if I ever get to shout out the great Cedar Point here, I’m happy). I bring this up because the Guardians have now, since July 27, won five in a row, lost seven in a row, won five in a row and lost three straight (and counting?). Millennium Force is jealous of these ups and downs. | 1 | 72-52 |
| 7 |
Padres |
You know what could really come back to bite the Padres? They have now finished their season series against the Rockies and they went 5-8 in those games. Take care of business to the level of something like 10-3 and they’d be in first place right now. | 1 | 71-55 |
| 8 |
Twins |
Bailey Ober in his last 10 starts? 7-1 with a 1.87 ERA and 75 strikeouts in 67 1/3 innings. This is especially big with Joe Ryan out for a while. | 1 | 70-55 |
| 9 |
Royals |
It might not matter, but the Royals have the toughest remaining schedule in baseball. | 1 | 70-55 |
| 10 |
Astros |
Yusei Kikuchi has been brilliant since being acquired at the trade deadline. Framber Valdez is in ace form. Ronel Blanco has steadied himself. Hunter Brown is a quality mid-rotation starter and Spencer Arrighetti is fine. They might not even put Justin Verlander back in the rotation, which has me dreaming of him in a fireman role out of the bullpen in October. | 1 | 68-56 |
| 11 |
Diamondbacks |
Their absurd run couldn’t last forever. The sweep in Tampa Bay (yes, I’m aware it’s actually in St. Pete) doesn’t mean anything bad, big picture, so long as they bounce back. They only fell this many spots because 7-11 is bunched up so closely here. Order them however you want, much like 1-6. There’s a clear separation between 6-7 and then again between 11 and 12. | 6 | 70-56 |
| 12 |
Braves |
Do they have their mojo back? The Braves have won five of seven and that all came on the road. A dance with the Phillies in ATL awaits. | 2 | 66-58 |
| 13 |
Red Sox |
Rafael Devers’ career high OPS before this season was .916 (2019). It’s .971 this season. He’s still only 27 years old. | — | 65-59 |
| 14 |
Mets |
Starting Thursday, the Mets have a road trip that hits San Diego, Arizona and Chicago (White Sox). That could be viewed a big opportunity. Of course, they just went 3-3 at home against the A’s and Marlins and that could be viewed as a huge missed opportunity. | 2 | 65-60 |
| 15 |
Mariners |
Absolutely unacceptable to start a road trip to Detroit and Pittsburgh — especially with how badly the Pirates had been playing — with five straight losses. That just cannot happen to a team with playoff aspirations. | 3 | 64-62 |
| 16 |
Giants |
When Blake Snell goes on these runs, it’s such awe-inspiring artistry. In his last eight starts, he’s got a 1.03 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 70 strikeouts in 52 1/3 innings. | 1 | 64-63 |
| 17 |
Rays |
Jeffrey Springs has now made four starts in his return from Tommy John surgery. In his last two (10 IP, 2 R, 1 BB, 15 K), he’s looked an awful lot like the dude who was the leading Cy Young candidate toward the start of 2023. | 2 | 62-62 |
| 18 |
Cubs |
It’s been modest, but Pete Crow-Armstrong had made enough progress at the plate to look like a possible future star. He’s so good at baserunning and has so much range in center, the bat is going to be what swings things either way. In his last 20 games, he’s hitting .292 with a .523 slugging percentage. The eye test shows a very noticeable improvement, too. | 1 | 61-64 |
| 19 |
Tigers |
Good early returns on 2022 first-rounder Jace Jung, including the clutch gene! But, yeah, it’s only three games. | 4 | 61-64 |
| 20 |
Reds |
The Hunter Greene injury is a bummer. Hopefully he comes back soon, but he had a shot at winning the Reds’ first-ever full-season Cy Young. | — | 61-64 |
| 21 |
Cardinals |
Ryan Helsley leads the majors with 38 saves. Given that we’re just about two weeks from September, he’s got a shot at the single-season Cardinals record. Right now, Trevor Rosenthal holds it, as he saved 48 games in 2015. | 3 | 61-63 |
| 22 |
Blue Jays |
The usual small-sample caveats apply (and the wind was screaming in from left at Wrigley Sunday), but so far Bowden Francis’ transition back to a starter has gone quite well with a 2.19 ERA in his four starts beginning with July 29. | 2 | 58-67 |
| 23 |
Pirates |
Apparently Joey Bart was a change-of-scenery guy. Buster Posey’s heir apparent in San Francisco hit .219/.288/.335 (75 OPS+) there in parts of four years. In 56 games for the Pirates, so far, Bart is hitting .277/.351/.532 with 12 homers and 36 RBI. | 2 | 58-66 |
| 24 |
Rangers |
Shortly after the All-Star break, the Rangers swept the White Sox in four games to move to within one game of .500. Since then, they’ve gone 6-16. | 2 | 58-68 |
| 25 |
Nationals |
It’s an incredibly small sample so far, but Jesse Winker has been worse while Lane Thomas and Hunter Harvey have been significantly worse since being traded. It’ll take a while before we see how the moves truly turned out, but so far Mike Rizzo is in the lead. | — | 56-69 |
| 26 |
Athletics |
The A’s held their final team Hall of Fame ceremony in Oakland over the weekend with Jose Canseco, Miguel Tejada and Terry Steinbach. It was a good send-off, but you have to feel for the die-hard fans losing their team. | 1 | 54-71 |
| 27 |
Angels |
The Angels have rightfully taken a bunch of flak over the years for how poor they’ve been at developing their own talent, really going all the way back to Mike Trout. Let’s give credit, though, because 2022 first-round pick Zach Neto sure looks like a keeper. The 23-year-old shortstop rates out as an excellent defender and has 17 homers with 22 stolen bases. | 1 | 53-72 |
| 28 |
Rockies |
Bradley Blalock was a 32nd-round pick out of high school in 2019. The Brewers traded him to the Rockies on July 27 this season. He made his second career start Sunday in Coors Field against a loaded Padres offense and allowed just one run in 5 2/3 innings of work. How can you not be romantic about baseball? | — | 46-79 |
| 29 |
Marlins |
Rookie Valente Bellozo was never a touted prospect and spent six years in the minors. Now through six starts at the big-league level, he’s pitching to a 2.45 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. | — | 46-79 |
| 30 |
White Sox |
It’s getting real. The White Sox are on pace to go 39-123. | — | 30-96 |
