Just over five and a half weeks remain in the 2024 MLB season. It’s possible we’ll get chaotic playoff races down the stretch and that’s always fun. But it’s not just about the divisions and wild cards. There are awards to be handed out! We’ve looked at the MVP races multiple times recently and will continue to do so, but right now, let’s take a look at the Cy Young races.
One aspect that stands out here is the chance that we’ll get two first-time winners. The only previous Cy Young winner who appears in the mix here is Corbin Burnes of the Orioles, who won the NL award in 2021 with the Brewers. Otherwise, the field in both leagues is full of pitchers who haven’t yet won the hardware.
Let’s run down the races. Remember that voters will rank pitchers 1-5 on ballots, so third-, fourth- and fifth-place votes can impact things here.
American League: Can Skubal hold?
Tigers ace Tarik Skubal has a healthy lead in Baseball Reference’s version of WAR and a pretty decent one on the FanGraphs’ side, too. He’s 14-4 for a team that is 44-56 when he doesn’t start. He leads the majors in ERA and ERA+ while pacing the AL in strikeouts, FIP and strikeout rate.
The Tigers have, however, said that Skubal has taken his last turn on normal rest. He made only 15 starts last season in his return from major surgery. He’s already established a new career high in innings and the Tigers aren’t in contention. Even if they don’t shut him down, he’ll be skipped, pushed back and otherwise limited in workload for the rest of the season.
Skubal is 100% the leader for the Cy Young right now in the AL, but will these limits leave the door open for someone else?
Here are the other contenders.
Seth Lugo, Royals: The MLB leader in innings pitched (166 2/3), Lugo is 14-7 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Given the body of work, he has time to salvage the situation, but he’s trending in the wrong direction. Lugo has a 5.24 ERA in his last seven starts.
Logan Gilbert, Mariners: George Kirby could work his way in here while the entire Mariners’ rotation is capable of pitching like a Cy Young winner, but we’ll go with Gilbert. He’s third in ERA at 2.96 and leads the league in WHIP at 0.88. He’s second to Lugo in innings. He’s slowing down, though, and I wonder if the Mariners totally falling apart after having a 10-game lead in June impacts Gilbert’s individual award chances. It shouldn’t, but voters are human and it could weigh subconsciously.
Corbin Burnes, Orioles: Overall, Burnes looks strong. He’s 12-5 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 144 strikeouts in 153 2/3 innings. He’s doing this for a team that’s been in a first-place dead heat for most of the season. He’s leading a pitching staff that has been crushed with injury. Like Lugo, though, there are recent concerns, such as the 9.00 ERA in three starts this month.
Emmanuel Clase, Guardians: A closer?!?! WHAT? Clase has been that good and he’s doing it for the best bullpen in baseball, holding up a poor rotation in first place. He’s 37 for 40 in save chances with a 0.63 ERA, 0.66 WHIP and 49 strikeouts in 57 1/3 innings.
Framber Valdez, Astros: The sturdy lefty started a bit behind but, unlike Lugo and Burnes, he’s coming on strong now. He’s 5-0 with a 1.87 ERA in his last five starts, pushing him to 13-5 with a 3.20 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 131 strikeouts in 137 2/3 innings overall.
Cole Ragans, Royals: He had a few rough starts early, but has been great for a while. He’s made 25 starts overall, but in his last 16, Ragans is 8-4 with a 2.65 ERA. All season, he’s struck out 174 in 147 1/3 innings.
Ronel Blanco, Astros: What an incredible story this would be. Blanco was forced into the Astros’ season-opening rotation when multiple starters went down with injuries. He had only seven career starts and his career high in innings for a season was 52. He threw a no-hitter in his first outing. He’s still going strong at 9-6 with a 2.89 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 130 strikeouts in 134 innings. He’d need a ton to break right and likely has no real path here, but it’s fun to picture. He at least deserves a mention.
National League: Sale’s to lose
Before last season, the active pitcher with the best career resume that did not include a Cy Young belonged to Gerrit Cole. In 10 seasons, he had finished second twice, in the top five five times and the top 10 six times. Then he won in 2023.
Sale is now in his 14th season. He’s finished second once but in the top five six times. He also finished sixth once.
Sale leads the majors in wins, strikeouts, FIP, strikeout rate and FanGraphs’ WAR. He’s the NL leader in ERA. If there’s a bit of a shortfall, it’s in workload, as Sale’s not in the top 10 in innings pitched and trails Logan Webb for the league lead by 24 innings.
He’s been so good elsewhere, though, I have to imagine the innings doesn’t move the needle much.
Not only that, but it’s possible Sale scores extra points here for buoying the Braves‘ rotation in light of ace — and Cy Young frontrunner — Spencer Strider going down very early with a season-ending injury. Fellow All-Star Reynaldo López also had a stint on the injured list.
Sale is the leader in the clubhouse here and he’s going to win the award if he can avoid injury or a collapse.
The other top candidates to consider:
Zack Wheeler, Phillies: He’s 12-5 with a 2.72 ERA (149 ERA+), 0.98 WHIP and 162 strikeouts in 148 2/3 innings. He’s the ace of the best team in the league and has helped hold that rotation up through injuries and inconsistency here in the last two months.
Paul Skenes, Pirates: I don’t think he’s going to have the workload needed to seriously contend, but the Pirates apparently won’t be shutting him down. Skenes has only worked 98 innings, but he’s 7-2 with a 2.30 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 121 strikeouts against 24 walks. He’s posted 4.0 WAR and that’s better than most pitchers who have qualified for the ERA title (Skenes is unlikely to get there).
Hunter Greene, Reds: The leader in Baseball Reference’s version of WAR, Greene is having his breakout season. He’s 9-4 with a 2.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 162 strikeouts in 143 1/3 innings. He leads the majors in hit batsmen and walks can be an issue, but he also has the lowest hit rate. The complication here for Greene is he’s dealing with an elbow injury. If he comes back quickly, and it really sounds like he might, he can make some noise. If not, he might fall off this list.
Reynaldo López, Braves: He’s only at 104 2/3 innings thanks to that aforementioned injury. Still, he has a 2.06 ERA in those innings and that’s stellar. He’s 7-4 and has a 1.19 WHIP with 102 strikeouts.
Logan Webb, Giants: Last year’s runner-up on the NL side, a midseason funk might well end up costing Webb his first Cy Young. He’s back on track now with a 0.61 ERA in his last four starts, but his three-start stretch wrapped around the All-Star break that yielded an 8.44 ERA did a number on his season as a whole. He leads the league with 164 2/3 innings and is 11-8 with a 3.17 ERA.
Dylan Cease, Padres: He’s been great in his last seven starts to bounce back from a rough stretch in late June and early July. Overall, Cease is 12-9 with a 3.46 ERA and 186 strikeouts in 148 1/3 innings. We’ve seen just how hot he can get, so if he strings together another five-start stretch of being nearly unhittable, a run could happen.
Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers: Like Greene, Glasnow has been great, is injured and has a team hopeful that he’ll return very quickly from said injury. It could well come down to just how quickly he’s back. Glasnow is 9-6 with a 3.49 ERA, 0.95 WHIP (the NL leader) and 168 strikeouts in 134 innings. It’s possible Glasnow would garner bonus points given how injury-ravaged the Dodgers’ rotation has been while they’ve still held onto first place all year.
