Week 1 of the 2024 college football season is right around the corner and, even this early, there’s sure to be plenty of focus on the new 12-team College Football Playoff. An important domino already fell last Saturday, as No. 10 Florida State dropped its season opener to Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland.
Though the Seminoles aren’t out of the race, it’s certainly going to be an uphill battle to get back near the top-10. It also opens the door for more teams to enter contention.
Week 1 promises to bring more landscape-shifting results. No. 14 Clemson and No. 1 Georgia are set to meet in Atlanta, Georgia’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. No. 8 Penn State and No. 19 Miami face steep road tests as they travel to West Virginia and Florida, respectively.
No. 7 Notre Dame and No. 20 Texas A&M will do battle in College Station as the Aggies look to get the Mike Elko era started on the right foot. All of these games have major implications on the College Football Playoff race, especially since each top-25 team — and even a handful outside of the rankings — have a realistic shot at making the final field.
With the 2024 season set to begin in earnest, here’s a rundown of some early potential playoff teams to watch, separated into tiers.
Tier 1: The conference champions
Georgia: Last year Georgia missed out on the SEC title, and subsequently the College Football Playoff, giving Kirby Smart plenty of offseason bulletin board material. Not that he’d really need it. The Bulldogs are as strong as ever on their defense. Now they can pair that with a likely first-round pick at quarterback in Carson Beck, arguably the best offensive line in the nation and some tremendous skill talent. The schedule is difficult, but Georgia should be a favorite in every game it plays.
Ohio State: A trendy pick to make it all the way to a national title game, Ohio State certainly set that expectation with several bold offseason moves. Coach Ryan Day welcomes a quality transfer class and convinced UCLA coach Chip Kelly to leave his job and join the staff as offensive coordinator. With Michigan potentially facing a reset year given all it lost to the NFL, the return path to the Big Ten’s mountaintop seems relatively open. The Buckeyes just have to watch out for newcomer Oregon.
Clemson: Florida State was the preseason favorite to win the ACC, but the Seminoles have already put themselves behind the eight ball with a Week 0 loss to Georgia Tech. Clemson now looks poised to pick up the pieces. It has been a while since the Tigers factored into the national scene, leaving some to proclaim the Dabo Swinney dynasty over. The Tigers have the defense to win a championship, though. It’s the offense that needs to take some serious strides to get there.
Utah: Winning the Big 12 isn’t going to be easy. There are five or six teams that have a legitimate path to the championship game. But Kyle Whittingham is built for this. He has a knack for getting the most out of his players, something he displayed as he won two Pac-12 titles in the last three years. Seventh-year quarterback Cam Rising is back to lead the offense, while the defense is stacked with one of the Big 12’s best front sevens. Whittingham’s brand of physicality should lead the Utes to big things in their new conference digs.
Tier 2: The at-large favorites
Oregon: The Ducks are a legitimate threat to win the Big Ten with a clash against Ohio State on Oct. 12 shaping as the biggest game of the season. Dan Lanning has 22 wins in his two seasons at Oregon and he and his staff are recruiting at a clip rivaled only by a handful of programs. As a result, it’s hard to poke any real holes in this roster.
Texas: From one conference newcomer poised to compete immediately to another, Texas has a good shot to make it to Atlanta in its first year as an SEC program. The Longhorns return veteran starter Quinn Ewers fresh off his best collegiate season and reloaded on wide receiver talent via the transfer portal. Their defense lost some crucial pieces but, like Lanning, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian has recruited well enough to maintain a solid core. A slew of running back injuries this offseason haven’t dimmed Texas’ hopes too much, but it is certainly something worth watching as the year unfolds.
Ole Miss: Lane Kiffin is pushing all his chips to the center of the table. The Rebels went hard into the transfer portal this offseason, bringing in a whopping 25 newcomers to supplement their returning production. Headlining the Rebels’ list of incumbents is quarterback Jaxson Dart, who’s on the brink of becoming a star. It helps that Ole Miss has a very manageable schedule, the Rebels look like betting favorites in every game they play outside of Georgia.
Alabama: Alabama faces what may be the most daunting task of the 2024 season, as it has to replace legendary coach Nick Saban. Luckily the Crimson Tide hired a proven winner in Kalen DeBoer, who’s fresh off leading Washington to a 14-1 season and an appearance in the College Football Playoff National Championship. Even with some key transfer losses, the cupboard is far from bare in Tuscaloosa.
Penn State: James Franklin has done a great job keeping Penn State at a 10-win level over the last couple years, but the Nittany Lions have left a lot on the table. This could be the year that they finally break through, thanks in part to the Big Ten’s new scheduling model. Penn State only has to play two preseason AP Top 25 teams, one of which is No. 2 Ohio State. If that is the team’s only loss come December, it will be hard to keep the Lions out of the field.
Tier 3: Group of Five watch
Boise State: Boise State would have been a CFP mainstay under the likes of Dan Hawkins and Chris Petersen. New coach Spencer Danielson, who took over 10 games into the 2023 season as interim and led the Broncos to a Mountain West Conference title, is looking to return his team back to those glory days.
Memphis: Ryan Silverfield has steadily brought the Tigers back into national prominence thanks to a 10-win 2023 effort capped by a victory against Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl. Seventeen starters from that team are back, including QB Seth Henigan, the most prolific passer in program history.
Liberty: Liberty coach Jamey Chadwell has posted at least 10 wins in three of the last four seasons, including a 13-1 effort in 2023 highlighted by a first-year C-USA Championship Game win. The Flames have a very favorable schedule, with no Power Four teams in the non-conference, and are heavy favorites to repeat as conference champs.
Tier 4: The dark horses
Notre Dame: Notre Dame has steadily improved each year under Marcus Freeman, and now it has a dynamic quarterback in Riley Leonard. As long as the Irish’s shorthanded offensive line can hold up, they have a shot.
Oklahoma State: The came in at third in the Big 12 preseason media poll despite making it to the conference’s championship game last year. They bring 21 starters back from that very same team, including Ollie Gordon II, the best running back in college football.
Tennessee: There’s a lot of optimism around Knoxville, thanks in large part to new starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava and the presence of bona fide superstars like edge rusher James Pearce Jr. Coach Josh Heupel has a very deep squad to work with outside of those two, one that could carry the Vols pretty far.
Miami: Florida State’s loss eases Miami’s path to the ACC Championship Game, at least a little bit. The Hurricanes have the ACC’s best quarterback in Cam Ward and plenty around him to make some noise.
