The UEFA Champions League may have a new format but the luck of the draw is a constant, as Thursday’s first-of-its-kind league phase draw proved for the 36 teams taking part in this season’s competition.
The new format means every team will have at least one marquee matchup during the league phase but even then, some teams came out of the draw happier than others. A handful of European heavyweights came out of the draw fairly unscathed, including two teams who arguably did not need the help — Real Madrid and Manchester City, the favorites to win this season’s competition.
For most, though, the draw offered up a combination of must-win games and ones in which the odds are stacked against them, the balance more harsh for some than others. That includes Paris Saint-Germain, who drew some of the best teams in both Pot 1 and Pot 2 and will have much to prove as they begin to chart life after Kylian Mbappe.
As the start of the league phase nears, here’s a ranking of each team’s path to the Champions League knockout stages.
Piece of cake
- Arsenal
- Barcelona
- Juventus
- Manchester City
- Real Madrid
These teams are poised to be the oddsmakers’ favorites in each of their games, which comes less as a surprise for City and Real Madrid and more so for the rest since the new format makes a tough schedule a real possibility for every team in the competition. Real Madrid’s clash with Liverpool will draw plenty of attention but it is still the reigning champions’ game to lose. As for Arsenal, their games against PSG and Inter might pose some challenges but they should be able to handle them, while Barcelona will be thankful their hardest match could come against a Bayern Munich team under new leadership. Juventus return to the Champions League with a faceoff against City but otherwise have some very winnable games.
Might break a sweat
- Bayern Munich
- Borussia Dortmund
- Liverpool
This trio will mostly be happy with their draws, but a couple of tough games could complicate matters as they eye a spot in the knockouts. Bayern’s toughest matches will come against PSG and Barcelona, which will mark serious tests of Vincent Kompany’s managerial abilities in his first high-profile job. Liverpool are in similar terrain — a matchup with Real Madrid will be tough while most of the other games are winnable, but a clash against Bayer Leverkusen could serve as a major assessment of Arne Slot’s managerial skills. Borussia Dortmund will also be happy with the majority of their schedule, but their games against Barcelona and Real Madrid will offer some challenges.
Toss-up central
- Atletico Madrid
- Bayer Leverkusen
- Inter
- RB Leipzig
These teams absolutely have the ability to crack the top 24 spots in the league phase, but they were drawn into games that could go either way and will be real showcases of their current form. What’s unique about this group of teams, too, is that they will have to take points off one another — most of them play two teams in this category, while Leverkusen will have to play three. Leverkusen’s schedule in particular will serve as a litmus test after their record-breaking season, but each team in this group will be eager to break into the elites rather than being labeled a midtable Champions League team.
Time to worry
- AC Milan
- Atalana
- Benfica
- Club Brugge
- Paris Saint-Germain
- Shakhtar Donetsk
These teams land here though a combination of questions about their own qualities, as well as the rough draws they were handed. PSG will no doubt feel the most hard done by after the draw, which reads more like a list of Champions League hopefuls than early stage clashes — Manchester City, Arsenal, Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid. AC Milan, meanwhile, will be the underdogs against Real Madrid and Liverpool but amidst a poor start to the season, they will need to prove they have what it takes against the likes of Leverkusen and Girona. The other four simply may not have enough to advance, especially since their schedules include games against three of Europe’s top teams.
