Less than four weeks remain in the 2024 Major League Baseball regular season and still so many postseason races remain up in the air. The Brewers are a virtual lock to win the NL Central, the Phillies are in excellent shape in the NL East, and that’s about it. There’s still plenty of time for everything else to change, especially at the top of the American League standings.
This would be the AL postseason bracket if the season ended today:
- Bye: No. 1 Orioles and No. 2 Guardians
- Wild Card Series: No. 6 Royals at No. 3 Astros (winner plays Guardians)
- Wild Card Series: No. 5 Twins at No. 4 Yankees (winner plays Orioles)
The AL wild-card race is not nearly as tight as the NL’s because the clubs on the outside looking in haven’t played all that well the last few weeks, and are slipping down the standings. There’s still plenty of time for that to change, of course, but right now the standings strongly suggest those will be the six AL postseason teams, with exact seeding still to be determined.
With that in mind, here’s a look at the teams in the AL wild-card race and where they each sit with less than a month to play in the regular season.
The favorites
Yankees (+10 GB)
This really should be the Yankees/Orioles. Baltimore is a half-game up in the AL East, though the two teams are tied in the loss column, and they’ve been playing hot potato with first place for weeks now. It is a near certainty whichever one of the two does not win the AL East will get a wild-card spot, and that is trending toward being the top spot of the three. The Yankees and Orioles have one head-to-head series remaining (Sept. 24-26 at Yankee Stadium) and each team controls its own destiny. Beat the other in that head-to-head series, match them in all other games, and the division is yours. The Yankees currently occupy the top wild-card spot and they have a huge lead on a postseason berth. But really, they’re in a division race more than a wild-card race.
Twins (+5.5 GB)
The Twins are four games behind the Guardians in the loss column and they have a four-game series coming up (Sept. 16-19 at Progressive Field), so the AL Central race is not over. It just heavily favors Cleveland. Minnesota is 5 1/2 games up on the Red Sox, the first team on the outside of the wild-card race looking in, and they have a three-game series remaining (Sept. 20-22 at Fenway Park). For what it’s worth, the Twins have the easiest remaining schedule in the AL, per FanGraphs. They are in excellent position to return to the postseason as long as they don’t get swept in Boston in two weeks.
Royals (+4.5 GB)
It’s been a rough week for the Royals, who tied the Guardians atop the AL Central last Tuesday but are 0-7 since and are now 5 1/2 games back in the division. They are closer to falling out of a wild-card spot than they are to first place. It must be noted too that the Royals lost the season series to the Red Sox, so Boston holds the tiebreaker. Kansas City’s 4 1/2-game lead over the Red Sox is functionally a 3 1/2-game lead. They must finish ahead of the Red Sox to get a wild-card spot. A tie goes to Boston. Also, according to FanGraphs, the Royals have the toughest remaining schedule among wild-card hopefuls. It’s gut check time for Kansas City.
In the mix
Red Sox (4.5 GB)
A scorching hot 18-8 finish to the first half did not last. The Red Sox are 17-26 since the All-Star break and 9-17 in their last 26 games. They’re four games behind Kansas City in the loss column for the third wild-card spot, though Boston won the season series and holds the tiebreaker, so they only need to tie the Royals, not pass them. The Twins are catchable, too, at least in theory. The Red Sox are six games behind Minnesota in the loss column for the second wild-card spot and they have a three-game series remaining (Sept. 20-22 at Fenway Park). Win those games, hope the Twins stumble the rest of the month. Minnesota becomes catchable. The point is the Red Sox need to reverse this second-half swoon immediately to have a chance at the postseason.
Tigers (4.5 GB)
The Tigers have won 15 of their last 22 games and have given themselves at least an outside chance at a wild-card spot. They have a three-game series remaining with the Royals (Sept. 16-18 at Kauffman Stadium), but Kansas City has already won the season series, so they hold the tiebreaker. Detroit’s 4 1/2-game deficit is functionally a 5 1/2-game deficit because a tie does the Tigers no good. They must finish ahead of the Royals. Also, the Tigers have no games remaining against the Twins and they lost that season series, too. Catching Minnesota will be awfully difficult. Their best chance at the third wild-card spot is sweeping that three-game series against the Royals, getting help in their non-head-to-head games, and the Red Sox continuing to fade.
Mariners (5.5 GB)
Truth be told, the Mariners have an easier path to the AL West title than they do a wild-card spot. They’re 6 1/2 games behind the Astros in the division with one three-game series remaining (Sept. 23-25 at Minute Maid Park). That’s the second-to-last series of the regular season. If the Mariners, who are 6-14 in their last 20 games, can climb to within three games of Houston heading into that series, they’ll control their own destiny (Seattle needs one more win over the Astros to clinch the season series and tiebreaker). Unlikely? Yes. But at this point that’s much more realistic than passing the Tigers, Red Sox, and Royals (or Twins) to secure a wild-card spot, especially since they have zero head-to-head games remaining with those teams.
Longshots
Rays (6 GB), Blue Jays (8 GB), and Rangers (8.5 GB)
Mathematically alive? Yes. Any shot at a postseason berth, realistically? Nope. The Rays and Blue Jays acknowledged this when they sold at the trade deadline. At 17-13, the Rangers have the best record since Aug. 1 among these three teams. They’ll have to pick up the pace significantly to have even a chance of maybe possibly making this interesting in the season’s final week.
