D’Andre Swift and Rhamondre Stevenson each had a PPR average draft position of Round 6. Tony Pollard’s fell into early Round 7. Now that Fantasy managers have drafted them, it’s time to figure out which one is a starter, which one is a flex, and which one should hit the bench in Week 1.
Swift opens the season on his third team in as many seasons in Chicago where he’ll face the Titans and their re-tooled squad. Stevenson didn’t just stay in New England; he got a contract extension. The Patriots hope that will be money well spent at Cincinnati. And Pollard, formerly of the Cowboys, is part of that Titans team that will face the Bears‘ rising defense.
Start: D’Andre Swift
I wasn’t huge on him in the Fantasy draft process, but I’m hoping that a fresh-as-possible Swift will benefit from the matchup against the Titans. Tennessee has maybe the biggest D-tackle twosome in the game with Jeffrey Simmons and rookie T’Vondre Sweat. The team also has one of the best cornerback trios after acquiring both L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie to go with Roger McCreary. They’re also deep at safety.
Running Swift behind the Bears’ decent O-line into those two behemoths won’t go anywhere. But the edges away from those guys are where Swift could make them pay. In Philly last year, Swift averaged 4.4 yards per carry to the edges with a better rush EPA, success rate and more yards after contact per rush than on his carries between the tackles. Anything Chicago can do to get their speedster away from the middle of that D-line should go a long way.
And if the Bears can win on rushes to the edge then they can certainly win on designed screens, flares and out-breaking routes toward the edges too. Tennessee’s addition of Ernest Jones should help them more than the linebackers that would otherwise be tasked with slowing down running backs, but he himself allowed a catch rate of 83%.
I’m starting Swift because I think he’s got a shot at good yardage along with a handful of receptions. If he can somehow score on top of that, he’ll be a total asset for Fantasy lineups.
Flex: Rhamondre Stevenson
Honestly, even calling Stevenson a flex scares me. The Patriots have designs on using more outside zone runs with Stevenson this year, something he said he was familiar with in college. Problem is, TRU Media says Stevenson averaged 3.0 yards per rush on outside zone carries last year and 2.5 yards in 2022. Inside zone runs have been Stevenson’s strength — at least 4.8 yards per rush in each of his past two years.
But that’s just the beginning of Stevenson’s concerns. New England’s offensive line might be the worst in the league. Only guard Sidy Sow and center David Andrews finished in the top-20 at their positions in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades. Another lineman, Cole Strange, ranked 24th among guards. Sow is uncertain for the game, Strange is on the PUP list.
And it’s not like the Bengals defense is going to be dominant against the run, but they do have the depth along the D-line and linebacker to at least contain Stevenson. Last season they allowed 4.4 yards per rush against zone runs — outside or inside — which stinks for them, but only two touchdowns were let up along with a low 8.8 explosive rush allowed rate.
But the real kryptonite is that Cincy’s offense should put points up, especially with Joe Burrow unlikely to feel serious pressure from the New England defense. That game script could force the Patriots to abandon Stevenson, much like they did at times last year. All of Stevenson’s best games — and I use the term best loosely — came in one-score losses or Patriots wins.
Lastly, Stevenson had one carry last year go for more than 15 yards. That’s a glaring issue that probably has more to do with his offensive line and opportunities than it does his own talent, but it’s a factoid that should scare anyone considering him.
I’m flexing Stevenson on the hope he does enough damage as a pass-catcher to salvage his numbers in a PPR league. That’s what he did often last year.
Bench: Tony Pollard
It’s a whole new world for the Titans offense. No more Derrick Henry. No more weak offensive lines. Brian Callahan will call plays after being the right-hand man for Zac Taylor in Cincy. Deeper receiving corps. Second-year quarterback in Will Levis.
And a two-headed running attack with Pollard and Tyjae Spears that several Titans coaches and execs have refused to share usage details on other than the common split-backfield fodder.
If their preseason games were used as dress rehearsals, then we can glean that Pollard might have a heavier workload to begin the year. That’s because Pollard had a slight edge in snaps played (19 to 14, including penalized plays) and a large edge in touches (13 to 7). Pollard had a 6-to-3 edge in red-zone touches and 2-to-1 edge on inside-the-5 touches over Spears. On third downs, Spears had a 4-to-1 edge in snaps but they each had just one touch.
But the biggest difference was Pollard’s efficiency. A third of his runs went at least five yards and one went for over 20 yards. Not one of his carries went for zero or negative yardage. On the flipside, Spears had two negative runs, one rush for five-plus yards and no explosive runs. It might mean nothing in terms of workload, but Pollard was the better back in preseason action.
So maybe we can feel good about saying Pollard is the better Fantasy option than Spears. That matters against a Bears run defense that has really good players at linebacker and safety, but still some question marks up-front. Those question marks are for-sure going to get tested against the Titans’ well-schemed O-line, which happened to look outstanding in those preseason snaps. Assume that’s enough for the Titans rushers to get initial lanes open for them to get through and potentially make something happen.
The strike against Pollard is obviously his timeshare with Spears. Even though he played more than Spears and looked better than Spears in the preseason, there’s still uncertainty. It’s entirely possible that Pollard gets 12 touches to Spears’ 8. It’s even possible — maybe likely — that Spears will play more than Pollard if the Titans fall behind in the second half.
It’s that uncertainty that keeps Pollard on my Fantasy bench if I can help it. I’d much rather use the week to learn more about the Titans offense and what Pollard’s role is. The worse news is that even if I like what I see from Pollard this week, I’ll be hesitant to use him next week against the Jets and potentially the week after against the Packers.
