The NFL world got a big old ‘quake that came down Monday night roughly an hour before kickoff, with the news Christian McCaffrey, the reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year and popular No. 1 overall fantasy draft pick, wouldn’t just be limited against the Jets … he wouldn’t play at all. Instead, Jordan Mason — you might be asking “who?” but best ball bros and fantasy diehards know — was getting the start.
It’s the sort of news that sent people scrambling to the waiver wire to fix their fantasy lineups, caused chaos amongst every sportsbook while they reset prop markets (ironically it only moved the actual spread a point) and basically replicated the same pregame chaos we got Sunday with Tyreek Hill being arrested and Dak Prescott getting a contract extension in the span of 10 to 15 minutes.
But maybe it didn’t have to be that way. Mason, in the wake of an incredible 28-carry, 147-yard, Wally Pipp-esque performance, joined ESPN’s Lisa Salters on the field for a postgame interview. Asked when he knew he’d be starting, Mason provided a pretty revealing answer.
“Friday … maybe Friday night,” Mason said with a bit of reluctance.
There’s a lot to unpack here. So let’s try and segment it out a bit.
Fantasy implications
There will be a LOT of people angry about CMC not playing in this game and it possibly being a thing as early as Friday, allowing people to maneuver their lineups in such a manner they had outs in case McCaffrey didn’t play. If you don’t think people are angry, you’re not online enough. (Congrats to you.)
I’m not going to post any of the angry tweets because I’ll just end up getting in trouble, but there were a LOT of people who follow the NFL closely that found themselves surprised by the revelation.
You get the gist. The CMC news sent me rapid-fire texting group chats when it dropped. The scramble in DFS and regular fantasy was real. I would argue if you had CMC and he was limited you needed to do two things: 1) move him into your flex spot because he was the last game of the week and 2) prepare yourself accordingly with an option to slide in should McCaffrey end up being super limited or not playing.
Or do what I did and snipe Jordan Mason before the guy drafting first overall in our league could take him in the draft (sorry Eddies). Either way, don’t assume anything if a player is limited, even if finding out Friday would have been much more helpful.
Did the 49ers do anything wrong? More on that in a second. First …
Betting markets
This part was wild to see live. When the news dropped from the various NFL Media insiders first, I tried to hit up a legal sportsbook and hammer Mason overs (remember, CMC props will be voided, so always hit over on the replacement and not under on the guy who won’t play). No such luck, as the books had moved too quickly to get anything in.
But there were plenty of people who got good numbers on Mason in the moment, and even more people who got good numbers on Mason early in the day. It’s definitely a learning lesson for something like that … creep on the value early and hope you get some good news.
The numbers moved like crazy, though. At one point, Mason’s carries were lined around 13.5 and his total rushing and receiving yards were listed at around 77.5 or 78.5. He blew that out of the water, largely because Kyle Shanahan turned him into THE GUY in this game and he responded accordingly.
We can’t say this was obvious because, well, it wasn’t. But we definitely can say he looked like this in the preseason so it shouldn’t be shocking Shanny fed him. Especially when the foundation of this offense is built on running backs who have been largely overlooked but fit the one-cut-and-go running style that meshes so well with Shanahan’s scheme. If Mason was on your waiver wire heading into Week 1, you need to be better at fantasy and/or find a sharper league. He should have been drafted everywhere.
His price for an anytime touchdown closed at +550, which is hilariously low for a guy who might not have gotten more than five carries until McCaffrey was ruled out.
Long story short, it’s a good lesson for betting pregame.
Will the NFL fine the 49ers?
I’m interested to see how this plays out, and I don’t think you can definitively give an answer. It’s very clear the 49ers downplayed the extent of McCaffrey’s injury, and it isn’t a stretch to say they toed the line on how they handled the injury report.
But McCaffrey was ON the injury report. And he was limited. They told everyone that.
Mason also didn’t say he was told on Friday that McCaffrey would be out … he simply said he found out Friday he would — or maybe MIGHT — start Monday night.
The 49ers can pretty easily tell the league they listed McCaffrey as limited all week and listed him as questionable leading into the game. Which is exactly what they did.
McCaffrey went out, tested his calf, it didn’t feel right and the 49ers, as defending NFC champs, decided they shouldn’t push it with their superstar running back.
The game bore out their prudence with Mason dominating, the 49ers crushing the Jets and CMC not being necessary.
If the league feels like it needs to set a precedent here, I wouldn’t have a problem with it. There is a ton of money at stake on multiple platforms, all of which are closely associated and/or directly partnered with the NFL. Transparency is better and the NFL hasn’t been great about it over the course of the last five years.
But the Niners have a pretty easy explanation for why things went down they did, even if Mason’s answer Monday night won’t sit well with people who were directly involved in the CMC business.
