Who’s got it better than the Michigan Wolverines? A lot of people right now. As if being more than a touchdown underdog at home against Texas last week wasn’t enough, the Wolverines lost to Texas by 19 in a game that never felt even that close.
The offense failed to provide any kind of threat for the second straight game, and after two weeks of action, Michigan’s offense is one of the worst in the Big Ten. If you’re looking for one area the team has done well, it’s finishing in the red zone; the Wolverines are averaging 5.0 points per red zone trip, which ranks fifth in the conference.
The problem is only three of Michigan’s 21 offensive possessions have reached the red zone for a rate of 14.29%, which ranks last in the league, far behind everybody else. It’s one of a multitude of stats where the Michigan offense is hanging out at the bottom of the Big Ten.
| Michigan Offense | Points per drive | Yards per play | Success Rate | EPA per play | Explosive play rate | Negative play rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Stat (Big Ten rank) |
1.67 (15th) |
4.7 (17th) |
37% (18th) |
-0.14 (17th) |
8.5% (16th) |
31.62% (14th) |
What’s scary if you’re Michigan is that there isn’t an obvious solution because it’s not one part of the offense that’s failing you. The offensive line has not been very good against either Fresno State or Texas, which has impacted both the run and pass game. When dropping back, Davis Warren has caught plenty of heat for his performance, but you don’t see Michigan receivers getting much separation from defenders, either. It truly is an ensemble performance.
One thing that would help matters is Michigan choosing a lane at QB, and that begins with stopping the musical chairs act with Davis Warren and Alex Orji. It’s hard to say Michigan is turning to Orji too often in games when he’s played only 35 snaps during his career, but 11 of those snaps have come in 2024 already. Only two of those snaps have been a pass this season, and while one was a touchdown (on a short pass behind the line of scrimmage), it’s clear as day opponents are not worried about Orji’s arm.
MORE: What led to Michigan not being able to settle on solid QB option
When Orji lines up at QB, opponents don’t need Conor Stallions to tell them what’s coming — they’re ready for it. On the season, Orji is 1 of 2 for 3 yards passing and has seven carries for 31 yards as a rusher. Last year, on a team that went on to win a national title and had a top-10 draft pick at QB, Orji never threw a pass in 16 snaps and rushed for 86 yards on 15 carries. Those numbers aren’t terrible, but they’re not nearly good enough to disrupt your offense, either.
That’s precisely what Orji does: disrupts the offense.
Life is already tough when you’re playing an inexperienced offensive line, and asking them to prepare for two different offenses that fit two quarterbacks with different styles of play only makes it more difficult.
Now, I’m not here to make a loud proclamation that it should be Warren’s job and his alone. If Michigan wants to go with Orji and name him the starter, that’s fine with me, too. My only thought is that you need to pick one and stick with it. And if you do pick Warren, then the backup should be someone who fits Warren’s profile. Given Orji was the No. 2 last year and the favorite to win the job during the offseason but Warren is the current starter, I assume that’s the route Michigan would take if it did make the move.
But if you want either one of them to have success in the current situation, forcing them to play with the threat of the other looming over their shoulder on every snap won’t help.
Not fully sold on Nebraska
Nebraska fans feel incredible this week, and I don’t blame them. The Cornhuskers are 2-0 and ranked in the AP Top 25 after a 28-10 win over Colorado. It’s the first time the Cornhuskers have been ranked since the 2019 season, and that ranking lasted only one week into the season. They began the year at No. 24 in the preseason poll, but following a Week 2 loss to Colorado, they were dropped and hadn’t returned until this week.
On top of that, you have stud freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola, who has looked solid and made some impressive throws, as well as a defense that’s allowed 17 points in two games. Then you look around the league and see Michigan get wrecked while Penn State and Oregon both struggled to win against inferior teams. So, you start thinking, “what if?”
Well, I’m not ruling it out, but I’m not inhaling what’s in those red balloons, either.
When you look under the hood, there are still some possible warning signs. UTEP, whom the Huskers beat 40-7 last week, followed up with a 27-24 loss to Southern Utah. As for Colorado, well, let’s just say that team may not be nearly as good as the amount of coverage it gets. And while 2-0 is 2-0, there are some numbers that don’t look incredible.
The down-to-down performance of the Nebraska offense has been hit or miss. The team’s success rate of 43.9% against two bad defenses ranks 11th in the conference and 61st nationally. The offensive’s explosive play rate of 10.8% ranks 90th, and the red zone performance scares me.
The Huskers are scoring only 3.9 points per red zone possession, and that ranks 97th in the nation.
Also, while Nebraska killed itself with turnovers last year and has been much better there to start 2024 (with some luck, as you’ll see below), the team committed 12 penalties for 105 yards against Colorado on Saturday. It now ranks 111th in penalty yards per game at 70.
Now, it’s only two games, so the sample size isn’t nearly enough to convince anybody it’s a long-term problem. But it’s something to keep an eye on because while Northern Iowa won’t pose too big a threat, conference play is right around the corner, and even the “easy” games on the schedule will be tougher than anybody Nebraska’s seen so far.
Mascot of the week
Northwestern lost to Duke in overtime Friday night, but this was still an excellent peformance by Willie the Wildcat. You can’t teach this. Those are natural mascot instincts.
Fun fact of the week
In the first half Saturday, Iowa dropped back to pass 19 times and ran the ball 17 times. It averaged 5.4 yards per play and outscored Iowa State 13-0.
In the second half, Iowa dropped back to pass 11 times and ran the ball 21 times. It averaged 3.5 yards per play and was outscored 20-6.
It makes you think.
Panic button for Oregon?
Oregon is 2-0 on the season and has not looked great in either win. It was easy to write off the narrow victory over Idaho due to first-week jitters, injuries to the offensive line and perhaps an eye toward Week 2’s opponent, Boise State.
But things weren’t much better against Boise State, who might be a much better team than its rival Idaho but shouldn’t be threatening Oregon the way they did if the Ducks are the legit Big Ten and national title threat we all thought they would be. I don’t care how good Ashton Jeanty is — and Ashton Jeanty is very, very good.
Once again, the Ducks were without a couple of starters on their offensive line, and it showed. Not only did they allow another four sacks (that’s seven sacks allowed in two games after allowing only five all last season), but even if we remove the lost sack yardage, the Ducks averaged only 4.4 yards per carry on the ground. James Jordan finished with 102 yards on 17 carries, which was strong, but I worry about the lack of big plays.
Last season, the Oregon offense had an explosive rush rate of 14.0%, the seventh-best mark in the country. The Ducks are currently at 4.1%, and that’s much lower at 119th. I’m not hitting the panic button until this is still the case when the offensive line is at full strength, but it’s something to watch.
Meme of the week
It’s fitting that this meme was made by Ohio State fans about Michigan because we’re two weeks into B1G Time and I haven’t written much about Ohio State yet. There hasn’t been much to write about, though. I’ve watched both Buckeyes’ wins over Akron and Western Michigan, and there’s nothing extraordinary to report.
Ohio State looks every bit as good as we all thought it would. Perhaps the only surprise is Jeremiah Smith being even better than advertised, and most everybody thought he would be very good.
I’m not making any grand conclusions about the conference in early September, but it feels like a pretty significant gap between the Buckeyes and everyone else.
Catch of the week
Between this grab and the toe-drag-swag Zakhari Franklin displayed in the fourth quarter to move the chains and help Illinois put Kansas to bed, I think the Illini are pretty happy they got him out of the portal from Ole Miss. Illinois’ 23-17 win over Kansas ended the team’s six-game losing streak in home sellouts, which is a remarkable stat when you sit back and think about it.
Three Hot Takes
Every week I promise to deliver three opinions that could very easily be proven wrong in the near future. The takes will range from Blazing to This Feels Warm, indicating how likely they are to be proven false.
Blazing — Northwestern won’t win a Big Ten game: I touched on it earlier, but the Wildcats lost at home to Duke in overtime Friday night. In the bigger picture, it was a tough blow to Northwestern’s bowl hopes because it felt like a win it had to have to reach six on the season.
But I don’t know if it’ll even matter come the end of the year. I know Northwestern was the surprise of 2023, but through two weeks, I’ve seen little to be enthusiastic about from this team. We knew the offense would be a struggle, and it has been. The Wildcats struggle to move the ball consistently, lack big plays and don’t finish drives. Defensively, they haven’t allowed a lot of points, but on a down-to-down basis, they look average. Also, I’m not sure how good the offenses of Miami (OH) and Duke will prove to be.
When I look at the schedule, I see a lot of games against teams I thought would be more winnable than I do now. Road games against Washington, Maryland, Iowa, Purdue and Michigan will be rough, and how many of their “home” games against Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Illinois do you feel great about?
Will leave a scar if touched — Aidan Chiles is the most exciting player in the conference: Michigan State landed a pretty big win for their bowl hopes Saturday, beating Maryland 27-24 on the road in their first Big Ten game under Jonathan Smith. And my guy Aidan Chiles had an incredible stat line.
Chiles threw for 363 yards and averaged 9.3 yards per attempt. He also threw three touchdowns to go along with three interceptions. Every single snap is an adventure, and I love it.
I don’t need every QB to be perfect and polished. I’ll take the Chaos Agent, too, particularly when they have the talent Chiles has because this kid unleashes some absolutely incredible throws. You don’t always know where they’re going, but they’re mesmerizing all the same. Plus, he’s still only 18, and he’s playing for a coach with a history of development. If you iron out some of the wrinkles, watch out.
This feels warm — There’s no way Michigan reaches the College Football Playoff: I’m not going to pile on any further — I’ve said enough about Michigan already — but I’m confident that based on what I’ve seen, the Wolverines won’t return to the College Football Playoff for a fourth straight season. The defense is still good enough that I expect the Wolverines will beat the teams they’re supposed to beat, but games against USC, Ohio State and Oregon will probably look a lot more like the Texas game.
Name to learn
Maybe I’m underestimating the depth of knowledge of most Big Ten fans, but forgive me if I’m not ready to assume everyone knows the name of Rutgers‘ starting running back. His name is Kyle Monangai, and if you don’t know who he is, he’s No. 5 in red. Yeah, that angry ball of muscle running over your middle linebacker.
Monangai had another great game against Akron, rushing for a Rutgers record 208 yards and three touchdowns. He’s now up to 373 yards and four touchdowns on the season. At his current rate, he’ll finish the regular season with 2,238 yards and 24 touchdowns.
Going with my gut
Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers — just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly. Odds via SportsLine consensus.
No. 4 Alabama at Wisconsin: I get the strong sense that we’re going to see an SEC team beat up on a Big Ten team in a Big Ten stadium for the second week in a row. While I don’t believe Alabama is as good as Texas, this is more about my feelings for Wisconsin at the moment. I wrote in last week’s column that Wisconsin might be the new Iowa, and Wisconsin’s performance against South Dakota did little to alleviate concerns. Also, Badgers linebacker Jake Chaney will miss the first half of the game after being ejected for targeting last week, and that certainly won’t help matters! Alabama -16
Arkansas State at No. 17 Michigan — Michigan -22.5
Central Michigan at Illinois — Illinois -20
No. 9 Oregon at Oregon State — Oregon -16.5
No. 18 Notre Dame at Purdue — Purdue +11.5
Nevada at Minnesota — Nevada +16.5
Washington State at Washington — Washington State +4
Troy at Iowa — Iowa -22.5
Indiana at UCLA — Indiana -2.5
Maryland at Virginia — Virginia +2.5
There are no lines for Big Ten games against FCS competition as of publication.
Last Week: 8-4
2024 Season: 18-11
