While seldom discussed, many fans see college football as a one-month season. When you’re a fan of a team that isn’t typically competing for conference titles, crossing your fingers until the circulation’s cut off and hoping to get to a bowl game, the year often ends before September does.
If you look around the Big Ten right now, there are nine undefeated teams remaining and five off to 3-0 starts. Of those nine, six are ranked in the current AP Top 25. Then there’s one who isn’t. It’s one of those schools where fans have grown accustomed to looking at football as something to do until basketball starts, but this year, the basketball team may have to wait a little longer for attention.
Dear reader, the voters of the major polls may not have noticed yet, but the Indiana Hoosiers are good. Good enough that I’d argue they should be in the polls ahead of two Big Ten teams currently ranked, and one of those teams is Michigan. The other is Illinois.
That’s not a shot at either of those teams, but the fact of the matter is if you’re ranking either of them right now, you should have Indiana on your ballot, too, and ahead of both. Michigan has wins against Fresno State and Arkansas State, as well as a blowout home loss to Texas. Illinois’ win against Kansas looked much better before the Jayhawks followed it up with another loss to UNLV.
Looking at Indiana’s resume, there isn’t a great win. Saturday night’s dominant 42-13 road win over UCLA should serve as a warning to the rest of the Big Ten that this team is not to be overlooked; however, beating the Bruins doesn’t move the needle nationally, nor will wins against FIU and Western Illinois. Still, the keyword in the description of Indiana’s win is “dominant.”
I’ve long argued who you play isn’t as worthy an indicator of how good a team is as how you play, and few teams have played better than the Hoosiers, who haven’t trailed at any point this season. The only other Big Ten teams who can say that are Nebraska and Rutgers (you know, the usual suspects), and the latter has only played two games. Furthermore, the Hoosiers haven’t spent much time in tie games either. They strike early and keep pummeling. Indiana has held the lead for 91.99% of their snaps this year, the highest rate in the conference.
| Team | Percentage of snaps holding the lead |
|---|---|
|
1. Indiana |
91.99% |
|
2. Nebraska |
88.52% |
|
3. Ohio State |
86.90% |
|
4. Rutgers |
85.48% |
|
5. Iowa |
75.10% |
|
6. Minnesota |
74.82% |
|
7. Illinois |
71.36% |
|
8. Oregon |
65.01% |
|
9. USC |
61.44% |
|
10. Michigan State |
59.96% |
|
11. Michigan |
59.82% |
|
12. Maryland |
57.88% |
|
13. Penn State |
57.00% |
|
14. Northwestern |
54.88% |
|
15. Wisconsin |
53.26% |
|
16. Washington |
53.23% |
|
17. Purdue |
44.44% |
|
18. UCLA |
1.73% |
Taking that to the next level, the Hoosiers have held a two-score lead or more for 83.98% of their snaps, which also leads the Big Ten. The next closest teams are Nebraska (75.5%) and Ohio State (70.29%). Nobody else is even close; Rutgers is the only other team over 50%.
To be clear, none of this should be taken as a sign Indiana is ready to compete for a conference title. While playing great is important, playing well against good competition does matter. But it could be a while before we get a definitive answer on this team.
Indiana plays Charlotte this week and then faces Maryland at home to end the month. That’s followed up with a road game against a Northwestern team that looks extremely beatable. We may not have an idea of how good the Hoosiers truly are until Nebraska comes to Bloomington on Oct. 19.
Of course, Indiana could easily be 6-0 by then, and bad teams don’t usually start seasons with six straight wins against anybody. Perhaps they’ll even be ranked!
Quick thoughts on Michigan QB change
No need to go in-depth on this, as I wrote plenty of words about it last week, but Michigan coach Sherrone Moore announced Monday that Alex Orji will start for the Wolverines this week against USC. I have no problem with the decision because even if none of Davis Warren’s pass attempts hit the turf against Arkansas State, he threw three interceptions, and even the 11 completions to his team weren’t impressive.
Still, I think there are more problems on the Michigan offense than the QB, so a change won’t fix everything.
My only request is the same one I made last week. You went with Warren against Arkansas State, it didn’t work, and you went to Orji to replace him. Now Orji is being named the starter, and the offense you will run with Orji will not be the same as with Warren. Perhaps that’s for the better, given the current personnel, but stick with it if this is the change you’re making.
If Orji struggles against USC, leave him in, and then leave him in the following week against Minnesota. It’s the only way any of this has a chance to work. It’s already clear the Wolverines will not be winning another national title this season, and it doesn’t look like a Big Ten title is in the cards, either. But playing musical chairs at QB only increases the odds of the bottom falling out entirely, and the Michigan defense is still good enough to keep this team near the top of the standings.
Catch of the week
Last week, I highlighted Illinois’ Zakhari Franklin using one hand to reel in a Luke Altmyer pass along the sideline. This week, it’s Altmyer accepting the challenge. Damn near every receiver catches passes with one hand today, but how many are catching their own passes?
The Illini followed up their win over Kansas last week with a 30-9 win over Central Michigan to get to 3-0. It’s the first time Illinois has started a season 3-0 since 2011, when they started 6-0. That 3-0 start in 2011 also included a win over a ranked opponent (Arizona State) and saw the Illini debut at No. 24 in the AP Top 25 after, just like where they are now.
Then the Illini lost six straight and fired Ron Zook before winning their bowl game. Can history repeat itself? I sure as hell hope not.
Three hot takes
Blazing — Kurtis Rourke is the most impactful transfer QB in the Big Ten: OK, so this one has been baking in my brain oven for a while now, but I didn’t want to unleash it while Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks were playing mediocre football. Now that Oregon looked like the team we thought it’d be against Oregon State, I’m willing to unleash it upon the world.
You didn’t think you’d be reading this many words on Indiana, did you? Well, deal with it. They’re good, and Rourke is a big reason why. I’ve loved Rourke since he was tearing it up in the MAC with Ohio and have long felt he was good enough to play at this level. To this point, he’s done an incredible job running the Indiana offense. Honestly, whether it’s a throw or a decision on an RPO, I’m not sure I’ve seen him make a mistake yet.
Most people will argue that Dillon Gabriel and Will Howard are more impactful, and I get it, but do not overlook the impact Rourke is having on his team. Of course, the irony is that I was disappointed when Indiana lost Brendan Sorsby to Cincinnati in the portal; I think he’s a good player, too. He’s proving me right by playing well for the Bearcats, so this could be one of those “everybody wins” situations.
Will leave a scar if touched — Andy Kotelnicki will be a Big Ten head coach in 2025: Penn State didn’t play this weekend, but Andy Kotelnicki won anyway. After losing to Illinois last week, Kotelnicki’s former team, Kansas, lost again to UNLV. During the 2022 and 2023 seasons with Kotelnicki calling the plays, the Jayhawks offense scored 2.92 points per possession. This year, in their first three games since he left to run the Penn State offense, the Jayhawks are averaging 2.63 points per drive, and the majority of that damage was done against Lindenwood. In their losses to Illinois and UNLV, they’re at 1.76 points per drive.
Given the early returns on Penn State’s offense, it’s not hard to imagine Kotelnicki’s name will be a popular one on the coaching carousel, and I think he’ll land a Big Ten job should one come open. Which one? Well, I don’t know, but Kotelnicki grew up in Minnesota …
This feels warm — Wisconsin will not make a bowl game: I was getting this sense before the Tyler Van Dyke injury against Alabama, and now it seems far more likely. As was feared at the time of the injury, Van Dyke will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. It’s is a crushing blow both to Van Dyke and the Badgers. The offense did not look good even before Van Dyke’s injury, as the same problems the unit showed against South Dakota and Western Michigan were magnified against Alabama.
I’m not optimistic Braedyn Locke is the guy to bring the explosive plays the unit was lacking, and when you look at the rest of the schedule, it’s hard to find four games you’re confident Wisconsin can win.
Stat of the week
Don’t look now, but the Iowa Hawkeyes are scoring 32.3 points per game! As incredible as that is, it is not the stat of the week. No, we’re going to the other side of the ball this week to share a worrisome trend about the Hawkeyes.
Early returns suggest this Iowa defense is vulnerable on the back end. Over the last seven seasons, Iowa has allowed only 24 pass plays of 50 yards or more. That averages out to 3.42 per season, and they’ve allowed more than three in only three of those seven seasons.
Iowa has allowed three passes of 50 yards or more in their first three games of 2024, and it’s allowed them against Illinois State, Iowa State and Troy.
The good news is that Iowa still ranks in the top 20 nationally in defensive success rate, points allowed per possession and explosive play rate. So there’s no need to worry about 45-42 shootouts coming to Iowa City any time soon, but it’s worth monitoring as the Hawkeyes prepare to begin Big Ten play this week.
Name to know
Maryland bounced back from its home loss to Michigan State with a road win over Virginia Saturday, and as has been the case every week, wide receiver Tai Felton led the way. Felton finished with nine receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown. He’s caught at least seven passes in every game, and his 111 yards against the Cavaliers was his lowest yardage total so far. He’s also scored at least one touchdown in every game, and his 149 yards receiving per game leads the Big Ten and ranks third nationally.
Headscratcher of the week
In Will Rogers‘ long college career, he has thrown for 13,140 yards and 100 touchdowns. He has rushed for -350 yards and two touchdowns. I don’t know what Washington’s thought process was here. Maybe they thought it was the last thing anybody would expect? I know I sure didn’t see it coming.
So about Purdue
Purdue isn’t as bad as it looked in its 66-7 loss to Notre Dame Saturday, but it’s hard to take anything from that performance to feel good about. It’s not simply that a rival came into your stadium and destroyed you; it’s that they treated you the same way power conference teams treat the FCS schools that come to town. The way you treated Indiana State.
Given the Boilermakers lost their best offensive weapon (Deion Burks) and most disruptive defender (Nic Scourton) in the transfer portal, I had suspicions this team could struggle this year. Still, I didn’t see what happened Saturday coming. Making matters worse, it’s not like things get a whole lot easier. Purdue still has to play Nebraska, Illinois, Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and the Juggernaut Hoosiers.
While there’s no easy fix, I wonder if coach Ryan Walters and defensive coordinator Kevin Kane should consider changing things up on defense. Walters got the Purdue job thanks to his aggressive nature as a defensive coordinator at Illinois. His teams use a lot of man coverage. Well, I don’t know that Purdue currently has the personnel to rely on playing so much man right now, and they’re playing a lot of man. According to TruMedia, Purdue has played man on 87.8% of its defensive snaps. Notre Dame has played at the second-highest rate. It’s at 58.8%.
Going with my gut
Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers — just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly. Odds via SportsLine consensus.
No. 11 USC at No. 18 Michigan: It’s tough to trust the Wolverines right now. They were crushed by Texas at home and have made a change at QB after letting Arkansas State hang around way too long. Now they have to break in a new QB to run a different style of offense, and they only have a week to get everything in order. Meanwhile, USC had last weekend off to give the Trojans more time to prepare. This will be the toughest test Miller Moss and the Trojans offense has faced so far, but I don’t trust the Michigan offense enough to believe they can keep it close. USC -5.5
No. 24 Illinois at No. 22 Nebraska (Friday) — Illinois +8.5
Marshall at No. 3 Ohio State — Marshall +39.5
Charlotte at Indiana — Indiana -28
Kent State at No. 10 Penn State — Penn State -49
Rutgers at Virginia Tech — Virginia Tech -3
UCLA at No. 16 LSU — UCLA +25.5
Northwestern at Washington — Washington -10.5
Iowa at Minnesota — Iowa -2.5
Michigan State at Boston College — Michigan State +7
Purdue at Oregon State — Purdue +4.5
Last Week: 5-5
2024 Season: 23-16
