Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out.
It’s too early to be absolutely sure on which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We’ll go through every game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to start Breece Hall. You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
The Patriots have played the third-most man-to-man coverage this season, including top five in the league on first- and second-downs. Garrett Wilson’s been much more explosive against that scheme, and naturally, Aaron Rodgers has been more effective. Whether or not the Patriots veer from that might be immaterial — their run defense is bound to be tested without linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley on the field for the rest of the season. Last week, they allowed a short touchdown without Bentley, and now, on a short week, they’ll get tested against a Jets RB group averaging an awesome 3.95 yards after contact per rush. Furthermore, the Patriots have seen the fewest RB rushes through two weeks (26), and it’s been mostly Zack Moss and Zach Charbonnet running against them — and they each scored! The Jets might be able to win this one with a big dose of their ground game.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Breece Hall, Rhamondre Stevenson
STARTS: Garrett Wilson, Hunter Henry (low-end option/streamer), Jets DST
SITS: Aaron Rodgers, Jacoby Brissett, Braelon Allen (stash), Ja’Lynn Polk, Demario Douglas, Tyler Conklin, Patriots DST
New York’s run defense has been brutal to start the season — 4.7 yards per rush to the Vikings and 6.8 to the Commanders‘ running backs, with high marks allowed in yards after contact per rush (5.8 yards per last week). It’s enough to have some confidence in Jerome Ford and D’Onta Foreman splitting work for the Browns. After Week 2, it’s obvious Ford is the more explosive back of the two and should lead the way on the ground, with Foreman picking up reps in short-yardage situations and when the Browns simply don’t want to overwork Ford. Will they be effective enough in a plus-matchup to keep the Browns passing game from being leaned on too heavily? Deshaun Watson has thrown at least 34 passes in each of their first two games with a 58% completion rate and one touchdown to show for it. I’d guess the Browns would love to give Watson a week where he doesn’t have to throw as much. This could be it.
STARTS: Malik Nabers, Jerome Ford (low-end RB2), David Njoku (low-end option), Browns DST
FLEX: Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy (PPR only), D’Onta Foreman (non-PPR only), Devin Singletary
SITS: Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Giants DST
This is a get-right spot for the Bears. The Colts have let up 4.6 yards per rush on the year and will be without awesome D-lineman DeForest Buckner for at least the next four weeks. Without him on the field last week, Josh Jacobs averaged 4.9 yards per rush with 4.2 yards after contact per rush and a 12-plus-yard run on 14% of his carries. That should mean good things for the Bears run game, which is still expected to be split three ways. There’s more: The Colts reliably play heavy zone coverage and aren’t among the reliable blitz defenses in the league. It could create an environment where Caleb Williams can finally run the offense without getting pestered like he was at Houston last week. And the Colts’ secondary has the second-worst expected points added per dropback versus outside wide receivers on the season, letting up a 75% catch rate and a third-most 259 yards to receivers — and that includes the Packers last week, who barely threw the ball. I’d bank on a bounce-back game from D.J. Moore.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor
STARTS: D.J. Moore (WR2), Bears DST
FLEX: Michael Pittman (PPR only), D’Andre Swift (non-PPR only)
SITS: Caleb Williams, Khalil Herbert, Rome Odunze, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs (stash in PPR!), Cole Kmet (streaming TE)
Minnesota’s pass rush has been excellent, recording at least five sacks in each of its first two games and coming up large with a 45.5% blitz rate against the Niners in Week 2, a key factor in their win. They’re not going to stop now, and they won’t stop playing zone coverage either, creating a fascinating matchup for the Texans. C.J. Stroud has been lights-out when facing blitzes and pressures this year because he is excellent at avoiding the pass rush and keeping his eyes downfield, frequently creating huge chunk plays. When there’s been pressure this season, it’s been Nico Collins who’s seen the most targets (five), then Tank Dell (three) and Stefon Diggs (two). Obviously, Diggs wasn’t in Houston last season, but Collins was still by far the most targeted wideout when Stroud was pressured. Through two weeks, Minnesota’s been weaker against outside receivers (74.1% catch rate allowed, 12.2 yards per catch, five completions of 20-plus yards) than slot receivers (56.3% catch rate allowed, 9.7 yards per catch, one completion of 20-plus yards). This paints a much better picture for Collins to dominate and for Dell to have a shot at some big plays than it does for Diggs to do well, but Diggs’ motivation for beating up his former team is more than narrative. I’d call Diggs a TD-dependent flex.
OBVIOUS STARTS: C.J. Stroud, Justin Jefferson, Nico Collins
STARTS: Aaron Jones (low-end RB2), Texans DST
FLEX: Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell (low-end option), Jalen Nailor (low-end option), Ty Chandler (low-end in PPR only)
SITS: Sam Darnold, Dalton Schultz (streaming TE), Dameon Pierce, Cam Akers, Vikings DST
The key to the Saints‘ hot start has been an incredible offensive line, a unit that technically allowed one sack to Micah Parsons and the Cowboys last week when Derek Carr ran out of bounds just shy of the line of scrimmage. In both of their games, they’ve been blitzed at over 40% of their dropbacks, yet have a pass rush pressure rate allowed of under 30%. That happened just 29 times across the entire league last year — it’s a really, really good thing. And it’s that O-line that’s helped Carr attack defenses downfield. Philadelphia’s defense is meant to deter against such deep throws, but they’ve let up the second-most yardage on pass plays of 15-plus Air Yards through two weeks (236, all to wide receivers). As long as the Saints give Carr time to throw, which they have so far this season, his top receivers are in play to have good games.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, DeVonta Smith
STARTS: Derek Carr (top-10 starter), Chris Olave, Rasheed Shaheed (low-end WR2),
SITS: Dallas Goedert (low-end option), Jahan Dotson
Quentin Johnston was noticeably effective in Week 1, running varied routes and flashing speed quite often. Obviously, his two-TD breakout in Week 2 at Carolina was even more impressive. With a refined skill set in his second season, he’s shaping up to be the Chargers‘ best wide receiver, but I wouldn’t chance it with him this week against the Steelers. Top cornerback Joey Porter Jr. will likely be assigned Johnston, and even though there could be a speed issue in Johnston’s favor, the Pittsburgh pass rush will be a massive test for the Chargers O-line to overcome. Johnston is only a mildly appealing boom-or-bust flex.
STARTS: JK Dobbins, George Pickens (WR2), Steelers DST, Chargers DST
FLEX: Najee Harris (non-PPR only), Quentin Johnston (very low-end option)
SITS: Justin Fields (streaming QB), Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Josh Palmer, Jaylen Warren, Gus Edwards
After missing eight tackles in Week 1, the Broncos run defense had just two misses last week and held their own against the Steelers. On the year, they have 10 rush plays of zero or negative yards allowed compared to just three of 12-plus yards allowed. That’s not too bad. Rachaad White has the fourth-highest rate of zero, or negative, rush plays among 50 backs with at least 10 carries this season, and he’s averaging a nauseating 2.0 yards per carry (second-worst among RBs). This should be a week where the game script goes his way, but that’s the only saving grace from this matchup. White will still be used as a No. 2 running back in Fantasy, but if he can’t get explosive, then Bucky Irving might have to get worked in more. Irving is averaging 5.3 yards per rush (11th-best) and has just three runs for zero or negative yards on the year.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
STARTS: Baker Mayfield (top-10 QB!), Rachaad White (low-end RB2), Buccaneers DST (one-week option)
SITS: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, Devaughn Vele (dynasty stash), Bucky Irving (stash!), Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, Tyler Badie (deep league stash), Broncos DST
Tennessee’s pass defense has been outstanding — outside wide receivers have a 62.5% catch rate and a league-lowest 8.5 yards per catch against the Titans, and slot receivers have a 58.8% catch rate and just 9.6 yards per catch. The only deep touchdown allowed by Tennessee was by Breece Hall last week. It’s their secondary that compensates for a pass rush that has four sacks and seemingly designs its blitz plans based on who they play (Caleb Williams was blitzed a lot, Aaron Rodgers wasn’t). Where the Titans might have an issue is against the run, where Jets RBs averaged 4.5 yards per carry against them in Week 2. Josh Jacobs shook off a slow start in the first half of Week 1 and has 231 yards on 42 carries (5.5-yard average) in his past six quarters. Expect him to hit the edges frequently in an effort to avoid the Titans’ massive D-tackle duo — the Jets got 6.1 yards per rush that way. That’s exactly what the Packers need to keep Jordan Love from having to do too much in his first game back.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Jacobs
STARTS: Tony Pollard, Packers DST (one-week option)
FLEX: Calvin Ridley (borderline WR2/3), Jayden Reed
SITS: Jordan Love (high-end QB2), Will Levis, Christian Watson (low-end flex), Tyjae Spears, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, DeAndre Hopkins, Tucker Kraft (stash), Chig Okonkwo
The Raiders got aggressive with their man-to-man coverage in the fourth quarter to help limit the Ravens offense, and it helped them steal a win. Playing a little more man coverage and blitzing Andy Dalton should probably yield similar results. But even with pressure coming at him, I expect Dalton to decisively get the ball out quickly, just as he did last year in his Week 3 start at Seattle when he was pressured on 43.5% of his dropbacks. Quick targets like Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen should help the Panthers at least get some first downs — they ranked dead last in that category (with only 18!) as well as in three-and-out rate (62.5%) and in fewest plays per drive (4.2) under Young.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Davante Adams
STARTS: Brock Bowers, Raiders DST (one-week option)
FLEX: Diontae Johnson (PPR only), Zamir White (non-PPR only), Chuba Hubbard (PPR only)
SITS: Andy Dalton, Gardner Minshew, Alexander Mattison, Miles Sanders, Adam Thielen (tempting low-end PPR flex), Jakobi Meyers, Xavier Legette (stash!), Panthers DST
It goes without saying that Skylar Thompson isn’t as adept at reading defenses as Tua Tagovailoa, nor is he as patient or accurate. And he’s plenty sensitive to the pass rush, which means he will rush his decisions. But he is more mobile than Tagovailoa, and he’s in an offense that’s already heavily schemed, so it’s possible he comes up with some good throws and benefits from the team’s speed. Seattle didn’t bother to play much zone coverage last week against a Patriots offense void of any real receiving talent. They’re expected to play much more zone this week to keep from getting beat deep. Seattle’s pass rush has earned the second-highest pass rush pressure rate through their first two games (44.4%) without having to blitz very much (22.2%). That’s bad news for Thompson.
OBVIOUS STARTS: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill
STARTS: Zach Charbonnet (RB2), DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (borderline WR2/3 in PPR), Seahawks DST
FLEX: Jaylen Waddle
SITS: Geno Smith (high-end QB2), Skylar Thompson (deep league stash), Raheem Mostert, Jonnu Smith (streaming TE), Tyler Lockett, Dolphins DST
Over 17 red-zone snaps in two games, Sam LaPorta has no touchdowns, no yards, no catches, and one target thrown high and behind him. By comparison, LaPorta had 11 catches on 15 red-zone targets in 2023 with eight touchdowns. A quick look at the film from the red zone saw LaPorta get doubled on just three snaps while he blocked or cleared out for other teammates on four snaps. On the nine occasions he did get open, Jared Goff had already decided on another player to throw to seven times. Remember, LaPorta had an injury in training camp and did seem slightly limited on the field. And maybe the coaching staff knows it and doesn’t want to put too much on his plate. But the Lions have run 31 plays in the red zone this year and have three touchdowns (all rushing) to show for it. The Cardinals haven’t been tested by tight ends much this season, but on the three catches, they’ve allowed tight ends to have averaged 15.3 yards per catch. And Arizona’s weak pass rush pressure rate should keep Goff comfortable in the pocket. Perhaps this is the week LaPorta gets on the board.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
STARTS: Kyler Murray, Jared Goff (low-end QB1), James Conner, David Montgomery (RB2), Marvin Harrison Jr., Jameson Williams (low-end WR2), Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta
SITS: Greg Dortch (low-end flex in PPR), Lions DST, Cardinals DST
The Ravens run game came alive in the second half last week, averaging 7.2 yards per rush against the Raiders with three explosive runs. Before then? Derrick Henry & Co. averaged 2.5 yards per rush in their first six quarters. Better blocking is the easy answer for why they ran better, notably hammering the Raiders’ ends so they couldn’t tee off and blow up plays. Maybe if they had stuck with Henry late in the game, they would have won. Anyway, Dallas’ run defense got destroyed last week by a Saints offense that meshed a well-schemed O-line with the speedy Alvin Kamara. Zone runs have hurt the Cowboys the most this year, and Henry has averaged 5.3 yards per tote on his zone runs thus far. If Henry succeeds for four quarters, the rest of the Ravens passing game figures to be left with limited numbers.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Lamar Jackson, CeeDee Lamb
STARTS: Derrick Henry (RB2), Zay Flowers (low-end WR2), Jake Ferguson, Mark Andrews
SITS: Dak Prescott (high-end QB2), Brandin Cooks, Isaiah Likely, Ezekiel Elliott, Rico Dowdle, Justice Hill, Rashod Bateman, Jalen Tolbert, Ravens DST, Cowboys DST (must-start in Week 4)
Typically a tough matchup, the Rams will be devoid of three O-line starters and both of their top receivers. It leaves a precarious spot for 36-year-old Matthew Stafford to be in, especially against a 49ers defense that candidly has underwhelmed through two weeks. They’ve been playing more man-to-man coverage than expected, and their pass rush pressure rate hasn’t been as dominant as it was last year — both factors that cost them dearly on the 97-yard touchdown to Justin Jefferson and the 10-yard strike to Jalen Nailor last week. This is as good of a get-right spot as any for the Niners defense, so expect them to be rambunctious up-front and pressure Stafford into some rough throws, even if they’re short.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jordan Mason, George Kittle
STARTS: Kyren Williams (RB2), Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers DST
SITS: Brock Purdy, Matthew Stafford, Demarcus Robinson (low-end flex), Colby Parkinson (streaming TE), Jordan Whittington (stash!), Jauan Jennings, Tyler Johnson (stash), Blake Corum, Rams DST
A lot has been made about the Chiefs run game after Isiah Pacheco’s fibula injury last week. I fear it might not matter. Carson Steele has nine carries (and one fumble) worth of experience, Samaje Perine has caught one pass in each of two games with the Chiefs, and Kareem Hunt isn’t even guaranteed any playing time if he is brought up from the practice squad. Guys like these aren’t going to easily replace Pacheco, and the Chiefs have to know that. It’s why I would expect Patrick Mahomes to throw more than the 25 and 28 times he has in his first two games. It also does not help that the Falcons have a respectable run defense that held Saquon Barkley to 4.3 yards per rush with no runs longer than 11 yards last week.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Bijan Robinson, Rashee Rice
STARTS: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Drake London (WR2), Kyle Pitts
FLEX: Xavier Worthy
SITS: Kirk Cousins, Darnell Mooney, Carson Steele, Samaje Perine, Kareem Hunt, Chiefs DST, Falcons DST
The Jaguars need to make changes to their offense, but this isn’t a good matchup to do it in. Against the Cardinals and Dolphins, the Bills have held QBs to 5.5 yards per attempt, third-lowest in the league, despite seeing 70 pass attempts, the seventh-most in the league. The two receiving touchdowns they allowed were inside the 10-yard line, one to De’Von Achane and the other to Michael Wilson. If there’s a liability, it could be in the slot, where without Taron Johnson last week, the Bills allowed 5 of 6 targets to get caught by the Dolphins, but only for 39 yards. Christian Kirk needs to be more involved in what the Jaguars do, so highlighting him this week out of the slot could finally give him some decent results (plus, he had a touchdown called back last week, so we know he’s not a total dud).
OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Allen, James Cook
STARTS: Travis Etienne, Dalton Kincaid, Bills DST
FLEX: Brian Thomas Jr., Khalil Shakir (PPR), Christian Kirk (PPR)
SITS: Trevor Lawrence, Gabe Davis, Keon Coleman, Brenton Strange, Curtis Samuel, Ray Davis, Jaguars DST
The biggest knock on Daniels through two games is that he’s not pushing the ball downfield enough. Out of 32 quarterbacks with at least 20 pass attempts this season, Daniels ranks last in average depth of target at 4.6 yards 30th in pass rate on throws of 15-plus Air Yards and 10-plus Air Yards. The other knock on Daniels is that he’s getting knocked around sacked on 11.7% of his dropbacks, which is also 30th among QBs. Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has not blitzed much through the first two weeks — he might change his tune this week in an effort to rattle Daniels. It’s what the Giants did last week, and they sacked him five times and held him to 44 rush yards and 226 pass yards.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Ja’Marr Chase
STARTS: Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels (low-end starter), Brian Robinson, Zack Moss (low-end RB2), Mike Gesicki (streaming TE)
FLEX: Terry McLaurin, Austin Ekeler (PPR only)
SITS: Zach Ertz (streaming TE), Chase Brown (but keep stashing him), Andre Iosivas, Bengals DST (they play Carolina in Week 4), Jermaine Burton (stash), Washington DST
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