In what might have been his final start at Minute Maid Park as a member of the Astros, Justin Verlander got hit hard again Friday, this time surrendering six runs in 4 2/3 innings against an unimpressive Angels lineup. The offense picked him up and Houston won the game (HOU 9, LAA 7), but Verlander now has an 8.89 ERA in six starts since coming off the injured list.
“Listen, I think I came back from the neck injury a little fast,” Verlander said Friday about the neck issue that sidelined him from June 10 to Aug. 20 (via The Athletic). “Obviously, I know the schedule, know the calendar. I want to be an asset for this team. To do that, I need to be able to pitch and find out where I’m at. Obviously, the results have not been good.”
In four September starts, Verlander has struck out only nine of the 88 batters he’s faced, a 10.2% strikeout rate that is far below the major league average (22.6%) and what we’ve come to expect from Verlander. Opponents are hitting .300 with a .506 slugging percentage against Verlander’s four-seam fastball, which has long been one of the generation’s most dominant pitches.
Verlander is an all-time great and a future Hall of Famer, but between age and the neck injury, he is an ineffective pitcher right now, and it’s hard to see how Houston can put him in their postseason rotation. Hunter Brown, Yusei Kikuchi, and Framber Valdez are assured rotation spots in October. Rookies Spencer Arrighetti and Ronel Blanco have outpitched Verlander, especially lately.
That said, Arrighetti and Blanco are both well over their previous career high in innings, and both could be major weapons coming out of the bullpen in the postseason. Verlander has made one relief appearance in his 19-year career (2 2/3 innings in Game 4 of the 2017 ALDS), and it’s fair to wonder whether he can adjust to a bullpen role and develop a new routine for October.
“It’s not my decision,” Verlander said about his possible postseason role (via MLB.com). “I was away for two months and all these guys were pitching fantastic. You’ve seen a bunch of guys really come into their own. I see the calendar. I know what time of year it is. That’s why I had to come back and try to find myself.”
Now 41, Verlander will be a free agent after the season, and although the Astros could pursue a reunion, it seems unlikely given their stable of starting pitching. He helped elevate the franchise to championship status upon his arrival in 2017, so, despite his poor outing Friday, Verlander received a standing ovation as he walked off the field in what might have been his final home start as an Astro.
Verlander has said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s and has strongly indicated he wants to get to 300 wins (he’s currently at 261). His future is another matter for another time, however. Verlander has been injured and ineffective this season, and it’s unclear that he belongs on the postseason roster, let alone in the postseason rotation. There have been few encouraging signs lately.
The Astros are 85-70 and five games up in the AL West. They can clinch the division title as soon as Sunday. As of right now, Verlander will make his final regular season start next weekend in Cleveland against the Guardians. There are no indications the Astros will move him to the bullpen before then.
