This was not the season the Las Vegas Aces envisioned, but they won nine of their last 10 games down the stretch to earn the No. 4 seed and are playing their best basketball at just the right time. As for the Seattle Storm, they also had a somewhat underwhelming summer after “winning” the offseason by signing Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike, but still boast an incredible collection of talent.
The No. 4 vs. No. 5 series is always one of the most intriguing first-round matchups, and that’s no different this time around. Can the Aces get their quest for a threepeat off to a strong start? Or will the Storm put things together and pull off the upset?
Here’s everything you need to know about this series:
No. 4 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 5 Seattle Storm
- Game 1: Aces at Storm, Sunday, 10 p.m. ET — ESPN
- Game 2: Aces at Storm, Sept. 24, 9:30 p.m. ET — ESPN
- Game 3*: Storm at Aces, Sept. 26, TBD — ESPN2
*If necessary
Players to watch
Aces: A’ja Wilson
No surprise here. Wilson just completed the best individual season the league has ever seen. She became the first player to score 1,000 points in a season, set the single-season rebounding record and led the league in blocks. The only question regarding the MVP award is if she’ll win it unanimously (she should). Wilson has seized the title of “best player in the world,” and when she’s at her best, the Aces are nearly unbeatable.
Storm: Skylar Diggins-Smith
Diggins-Smith got off to a slow start upon her return from maternity leave, but she soon reminded everyone that she is still one of the best guards in the league. One of the most impressive aspects of her season was how she took responsibility for the Storm’s post-Olympics skid. After losing three of four, she went off on herself and her teammates, stressing the need to come ready to play. From that point, the Storm went 7-4 down the stretch.
Three keys to the series
Are the Aces actually back?
Through a combination of offseason departures, injuries and lackluster play from the supporting cast, the Aces did not look much like back-to-back champions for much of the season. Over the last three weeks, however, they turned it around.
Following a 93-90 loss to the lowly Dallas Wings, which capped a post-Olympics skid where they lost three of five games, they went 9-1 to close the season. During that stretch, they were third in offensive rating (107.5), second in defensive rating (94.3) and had a league-best net rating (plus-13.2).
On an individual level, A’ja Wilson continued to dominate, Chelsea Gray looked more like her usual self and Tiffany Hayes solidified the sixth-player role.
The big question heading into the playoffs is: Was this just a hot streak, or are the Aces actually back? If it’s the latter, that’s bad news for the rest of the league, and especially the Storm.
Paging Jewell Loyd
Jewell Loyd finished sixth in the league in scoring this season at 19.7 points per game, but it was one of the most disappointing campaigns of her career. Despite the arrival of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike to help carry the offensive load, Loyd was extremely inefficient. In fact, was just the fifth time in league history that someone has averaged at least 19 points on less than 50% TS.
Her poor performance is perhaps the single biggest reason why the Storm’s offense failed to live up to expctations. This group has far too much talent to have finished seventh in the league in offensive rating (102.1). They need Loyd to get back to her usual self in the playoffs.
If she does, they have a real chance here against the Aces. During the regular season, the team was 11-2 when Loyd shot even 40% from the floor, which isn’t even a super high bar.
Can the Storm force turnovers?
The Storm finished the season with the fourth-best defensive rating in the league (96.4), and a major reason for their success on that side of the ball was forcing turnovers. Their 20.0% opponent turnover rate was their best mark as a franchise since their last title season in 2020 and second only to the Sun.
For a team that doesn’t shoot the ball very well, creating extra possessions is vital, especially if they come in transition. As a result of forcing so many turnovers, the Storm finished second in the league in fastbreak points per game at 11.4. If they want to beat the Aces, that will be a big part of the formula.
The problem for the Storm is that the Aces are the best team in the league at taking care of the ball, and have been ever since Chelsea Gray arrived. They turned it over on just 14.3% of their offensive possessions, and allowed just 12.4 points off turnovers per game.
Prediction
The Storm are super talented, but things just never fully clicked for them this season. And while the Aces weren’t at their best for most of the season, they’re rolling now and they have the playoff pedigree. Plus, one team has A’ja Wilson and one team does not. Pick: Aces in 2
