Thursday, October 10, 2024

NHL season 2024: Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews lead top 10 players in the league

NHL season 2024: Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews lead top 10 players in the league

The NHL continues to get more skilled, and there is elite talent throughout the league. That makes identifying the 10 best players tougher than ever, but we’re here to take on that daunting challenge.

Last season, it seems like the NHL’s superstars took it upon themselves to hit fifth gear. After going 33 seasons without seeing a player hit 100 assists, Connor McDavid and Nikita Kucheorv did it in 2023-24. Similarly, Auston Matthews put up a goal total not seen since Mario Lemieux was heating up The Igloo in Pittsburgh.

This season, the high-end talent has only gotten more plentiful. Players like Quinn Hughes went from being great to elite, and Nathan MacKinnon found another level to his already dominant game.

Needless to say, the competition was fierce, but here are your top 10 NHL players heading into the 2024-25 season.

All five-on-five data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

Honorable mentions: Adam Fox (D, NYR); Matthew Tkachuk (W, FLA); Jack Hughes (C, NJD)

10. Kirill Kaprizov | W | Minnesota Wild

There were a lot of great options for this No. 10 spot, but Kaprizov gets the nod as an exceptional offensive talent who has overcome his environment over the last couple seasons. Kaprizov isn’t flanked by a ton of skill in Minnesota, but he still manages to produce at an elite rate.

Kaprizov can fly under the radar in Minnesota, but he shouldn’t. Over the last three seasons, Kaprizov is tied for fifth in goals with 133 and ranks 12th in points with 279, and he’s doing all that with an underwhelming supporting cast on the Wild. On top of that offensive production, Kaprizov is also relatively strong defensively. With him in the game at five-on-five, Minnesota allowed just 2.23 xGA/60. Some of that was probably due to playing on a line with Joel Eriksson Ek, but Kaprizov held up his end of the bargain, too.

In order for Kaprizov to climb higher next year, a lot will depend on the development of young players like Matt Boldy and Marco Rossi. If those two can keep trending upward, Kaprizov will have more help than he has ever had in Minnesota.

9. Aleksander Barkov | C | Florida Panthers

Barkov may not put up flashy offensive numbers like the other players on this list, but he’s still very effective at that end of the ice, and he is now the Selke Trophy king. Barkov is an animal on the defensive end, and that skill just played a massive role bringing a Stanley Cup to Sunrise, Florida.

Last year, Barkov put up 23 goals and 57 assists, which is great but typically not the type of performance that warrants top-10 consideration. The kicker is that Barkov, now a two-time Selke Trophy winner, plays elite defense. With Barkov in the game, the Panthers allowed just 1.98 xGA/60 at five-on-five. That number puts him ahead of even the two defensemen on this list.

In the postseason, Barkov got matched up against the best players in the world, and he shut them down more often than not. Time to give Barkov his flowers after a championship effort.

8. Quinn Hughes | D | Vancouver Canucks

After four seasons of being anywhere from good to great, Quinn Hughes finally blossomed into an elite defenseman last season. Between putting up points and driving play, Hughes proved that he belongs on this list with a Norris Trophy campaign.

In his first full season under coach Rick Tocchet, Hughes exploded for 17 goals and 75 assists as he took over in the offensive zone. When it comes to his impact at both ends, the Canucks posted a plus-37 goal differential with Hughes on the ice at five-on-five. Hughes’ leap turned Vancouver into a Stanley Cup threat, and that should carry over into this season.

The big question that remains for Hughes is whether he can string together back-to-back elite seasons. He has the skill set to do it, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him close the gap on the top defenseman on this list.

7. Nikita Kucherov | W | Tampa Bay Lightning

The day Nikita Kucherov starts to slow down is probably the day the Lightning’s Stanley Cup window officially closes, but that day seems pretty far off given how Kucherov performed last season. One of two players to reach 100 assists, Kucherov keeps establishing himself as one of the most lethal offensive weapons of his generation.

In his age 30 season, Kucherov managed to notch 44 goals and 144 points, marking the fourth time in his career that he’s topped the century mark. I could nitpick and note that many of those points came via the power play, but I won’t for a couple of reasons. First, those goals go up on the scoreboard the same as the rest of them. Secondly, I feel compelled to point out that Kucherov was third in the NHL with 67 five-on-five points. That was more than Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak and Leon Draisaitl.

The only thing preventing Kucherov from being a little higher is that he doesn’t have the same level of defensive acumen as his peers.

6. Cale Makar | D | Colorado Avalanche

No one in the NHL can control the game from the blue line quite like Cale Makar when he’s rolling. At the ripe old age of 25, Makar has already filled up his trophy case, and he will probably need to build another one before long.

The offensive numbers are there for Makar, who has been a point-per-game player since his second season in 2020-21. The next season, Makar triple-dipped with the Norris Trophy, the Conn Smythe Trophy and the Stanley Cup. All he did last year was set new career highs in assists (69) and points (90) while helping the Avalanche control 52.7% of the expected goals at five-on-five.

Overall, Hughes probably had a better individual season last year, but Makar’s resume is still a little bit longer. Now squarely in the prime of his career, I’m fascinated to see where Makar can take his game next.

5. Leon Drasaitl | C | Edmonton Oilers

In a world where some NHL franchises can go decades without a true superstar center, the Oilers have two on their roster at the same time. Leon Draisaitl might not be Connor McDavid, but he doesn’t take a backseat to anyone when it comes to his offensive ability.

In the 2018-19 season, Draisaitl broke out for 50 goals, and hasn’t slowed down since then. Over the last six years, Draisaitl has lit the lamp 272 times, which is behind only Auston Matthews in that span. Of course, that’s not to say Draisaitl is a one-trick pony. His 371 assists are third and just four behind Nathan MacKinnon for second place.

What separates Draisaitl from everyone else on this list is that he’s completely reshaped the idea of a dangerous shot location, especially on the power play. Draisaitl has perfected the art of the “bad angle” one-timer, and he’s tallied 77 power play goals since the 2021-22 campaign.

4. David Pastrnak | W | Boston Bruins

If there were any questions about whether Pastrnak could stand on his own two feet, those were answered pretty emphatically last season. No Bergeron. No Krejci. No problem for Pastrnak. Without an elite supporting cast around him, Pastrnak turned in 47 goals and 63 assists.

Pastrnak is one of the few wingers in the NHL who is responsible for driving play in the offensive zone, and he proved that he can shoulder a heavy burden in the 2023-24 season. When Pastrnak was on the ice at five-on-five, the Bruins scored at a rate of 3.59 GF/60. With Pastrnak on the bench, that number plummeted to 2.25 GF/60. Pastrnak is the entirety of Boston’s offense at times.

This summer, the Bruins brought in Elias Lindholm to be their new No. 1 center, and that could provide Pastrnak with more support at the top of the lineup. If he and Pastrnak click, that could be a pretty devastating duo.

3. Auston Matthews | C | Toronto Maple Leafs

Scoring goals is pretty vital to success in the NHL, and no one is better at that than Auston Matthews. The Maple Leafs star just narrowly missed 70 goals last season, but his 69 tallies were still the most since Mario Lemieux scored that many in the 1995-96 season.

Matthews entered the NHL in the 2016-17 season, and since then, no one has found the back of the net more often than him. Over the course of his eight-year career, Matthews leads the league in goals with 368. That’s 40 more than Alex Ovechkin, who just happens to be chasing down Wayne Gretzky for the all-time scoring record. Over the last three seasons, Matthews has only increased his pace, scoring 56.3 goals per season.

The only knock on Matthews is the same one that applies to the rest of the Maple Leafs. He has yet to take over in the postseason, but I have no doubt he’s capable of doing that. Matthews’ ability to score from all over the ice makes him lethal no matter what the matchup looks like, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets red hot in the playoffs.

2. Nathan MacKinnon | C | Colorado Avalanche

MacKinnon has always been one of the best players in the NHL, but his 2023-24 season pushed him a little closer to the No. 1 spot. Last year, MacKinnon posted a career-high 140 points and won his first Hart Trophy as the NHL’s MVP. At times, he was single-handedly carrying the Avalanche while they dealt with injury issues and a lack of depth scoring.

Not only did MacKinnon find another gear in terms of production last season, but he did a lot of that damage at five-on-five. His 79 five-on-five points were the most in the NHL and seven more than Connor McDavid. His 36 five-on-five goals were only two behind Matthews for the league lead.

MacKinnon also has the postseason resume to go along with his gaudy numbers. Just a couple of years ago, MacKinnon led the Avalanche to a Stanley Cup with 13 goals and 11 assists in 20 games. In his 88 playoff contests, MacKinnon is averaging 1.3 points per game.

1. Connor McDavid | C | Edmonton Oilers

The top spot was never in question. McDavid is in a stratosphere all his own right now, and his postseason performance only solidified that. McDavid became just the sixth player in NHL history to win the Conn Smythe Trophy without winning the Stanley Cup, and if I had to guess, I’d say that fuels another superhuman campaign in 2024-25.

Over the last three seasons, McDavid leads the NHL in assists (268), points (408) and power play points (159). He is fourth in goals (140) and 14th in power play goals (38). Even those numbers don’t do McDavid justice. Last season, the Oilers generated 3.95 xGF/60 with him on the ice at five-on-five, which is a preposterous rate and one that is head and shoulders above even the other elite players on this list.

What’s more impressive is that, when the lights are brightest, McDavid still thrives. In his 74 career playoff games, he has 37 goals and 80 assists. The only thing McDavid lacks is a Stanley Cup, and he might check that box this season.

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