The regular season is winding down, which means the awards are nearly decided. We won’t find out until after the World Series who wins each of the major awards, of course, but votes must be cast before the playoffs even start. That means that while the final picture is not complete, it is awfully close. Knowing that, I feel pretty comfortable in predicting the winners of the major awards here.
Remember, these aren’t necessarily my picks. They are predictions as to who will win.
Let’s get to it.
AL MVP: Aaron Judge, Yankees
Bobby Witt Jr. is to be commended for one of the better second-place finishes you’ll see, but he needed to do some pretty heavy lifting in the last month to catch Judge and he didn’t. There’s no shame in this. He was amazing.
Judge was better.
Heading into Thursday, Judge leads the majors in home runs, RBI, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and WAR. It’s a ridiculous line: .324/.460/.703 (224 OPS+) with 57 homers, 142 RBI, 120 runs and 10.6. He’s even 10 for 10 in steals and has played out of position in center field most of the season.
NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
Even if Francisco Lindor didn’t get hurt, he was headed for second place. This award was already Ohtani’s and once he became the first man ever to reach 50-50 (50 home runs and 50 stolen bases), it sealed the deal.
An extra-run element to this is he didn’t just get to exactly 50 in each. He’s currently at 53 homers and 56 steals. Only Judge has more home runs and only Elly De La Cruz has more stolen bases in all of baseball. Ohtani leads the NL in home runs, RBI, runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and WAR. He’s hitting .303/.386/.642 (187 OPS+) with 125 RBI, 130 runs and 8.6 WAR.
AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal, Tigers
Kudos to Emmanuel Clase for an absolutely top-shelf relief season and if Skubal didn’t exist this season in the AL, I would have been ready to make the argument for a reliever. I already discussed it.
Skubal was so good, though, that he left no room for discussion elsewhere. He’s 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 228 strikeouts in 192 innings. He’s going to take the lesser-known Triple Crown, which would be the pitching version: Leading in wins, ERA and strikeouts. This happening with a workload of nearly 200 innings means it’s an open-and-shut case.
NL Cy Young: Chris Sale, Braves
In Sale’s 20s, he finished second in Cy Young voting. He also finished third, fourth (twice), fifth (twice) and sixth. He hasn’t gotten a Cy Young vote since 2018, which was his second fourth-place finish.
And now, at age 35, Sale is going to finally take home the coveted hardware. He’s 18-3 with a 2.38 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 225 strikeouts in 177 2/3 innings.
Phillies ace Zack Wheeler looks ready to take the mantle from Sale as the best active pitcher with no Cy Youngs. He’ll finish second here. He’s 16-7 with a 2.56 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 213 strikeouts against only 50 walks in 193 2/3 innings.
AL Rookie of the Year: Colton Cowser, Orioles
This is the most difficult to predict. I feel like I’m pretty sure on the other seven awards but this one could go either way. Yankees catcher Austin Wells might figure, but I think it’s between Orioles slugger Colton Cowser and Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil. It’s tough comparing them.
Cowser: .246/.326/.450 (125 OPS+), 24 2B, 3 3B, 23 HR, 68 RBI, 76 R, 9 SB, 3.0 WAR
Gil: 15-6, 3.27 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 166 K, 76 BB, 146 IP, 3.4 WAR
Reminder: Each chapter from the BBWAA in each league has only two voters per award. That means there will be two Baltimore and two New York voters just as there are two Oakland and two Los Angeles. Rid your mins of any conspiracy theories about inherent Yankees bias in voting, at least in theory.
I’ll guess Cowser takes this. But it’s gonna be very close.
NL Rookie of the Year
I have to abstain here since I’m an actual voter and any prediction might be perceived as a hint as to which way I’m leaning. I will say, though, it’s close enough that I do not yet know for sure how I’m voting. It’s a loaded class, too, starting with Paul Skenes of the Pirates, Jackson Merrill of the Padres, Shota Imanaga of the Cubs and Jackson Chourio of the Brewers.
AL Manager of the Year: Stephen Vogt, Guardians
This might be unanimous. Vogt took over for the legendary Terry Francona and the Guardians were projected to finish around .500 or even a few games under it, depending upon where you looked. Their gambling win total was 79 — putting them in third place in the AL Central — and they’ve long since flown by that. They lost Shane Bieber to a season-ending injury after just two starts. Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen fell apart. And yet, the Guardians are only half a game out of the best record in the entire American League.
Vogt cruises.
NL Manager of the Year: Pat Murphy, Brewers
Murphy might have his hands full here if the Padres finish their comeback and take the NL West from the mighty Dodgers, but that is a major longshot after Wednesday’s loss. Still, Mike Shildt would have a great case if that happens. I also think Rob Thomson deserves a lot of credit for leading his Phillies past the preseason-favorite Braves.
I do think Murphy prevails, though. To great fanfare, the Brewers lost manager Craig Counsell to a big contract with the Chicago Cubs last winter. Murphy was promoted from within to take over a team that had already lost Brandon Woodruff for the 2024 season. The Brewers traded their other ace, Corbin Burnes, to the Orioles in spring training. All-Star closer Devin Williams was injured during spring training. Superstar Christian Yelich was lost for the season in July.
And yet, the Brewers haven’t trailed in the NL Central since April 29. They are likely to finish with the largest division lead of any first-place teams.
