Is picking NFL games tough this year or what? Not just against the spread either.
I was 7-9 straight-up last week after all the uncertainty of Week 3 that saw upsets galore and survivor pools get blown up. That dropped my straight-up record to 24-24, which tells you how crazy this season is so far. I am .500 straight-up? What the heck.
Against the spread, it was even worse last week. I went 6-10 to drop my record to 23-22-3. At least I am over .500 for the ATS picks. By the way, that record is tied for the lead in our CBSSports.com expert picks. Some experts we are.
So let’s get it turned around. We have one more week of September games, and then it’s on to October, a month where things usually start to crystallize.
Here’s hoping I can navigate this final September week without much peril. It can’t be worse than last week.
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) at New York Giants
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The Cowboys have lost two straight home games, while the Giants impressed in beating the Browns last week. Dallas has issues on both lines and the Giants got all over Deshaun Watson last Sunday. But the Cowboys will tighten things up in pass protection and the defense will be better. Dallas gets back on track.
Pick: Cowboys 27, Giants 19
Bonus: SportsLine NFL expert Larry Hartstein is on a 22-8 ATS roll on Cowboys games and we can tell you he’s leaning the Over in this prime-time matchup against the Giants. Check out which side he’s taking against the spread at SportsLine.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is a big early division game with both teams coming off losses. The Saints offense came back to reality last week in the loss to the Eagles and now must play an improved Falcons defense. The Atlanta offense will be challenged too by a solid Saints defense. Look for a low-scoring game with the Saints pulling off the upset.
Pick: Saints 20, Falcons 17
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, likes the Saints to cover against the Falcons in Week 4. See the other picks the model is backing at SportsLine.
Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Bengals are 0-3 and just haven’t looked right, especially on defense. The Panthers won behind Andy Dalton last week and now he gets to face his former team. Look for Dalton to play well against a Bengals defense that has issues. This will be high scoring, but in the end the Bengals save their season.
Pick: Bengals 31, Panthers 25
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Rams came from behind to beat the 49ers last week, while the Bears lost in Indianapolis. Chicago isn’t running the football, which puts a lot of pressure on Caleb Williams. The Rams still have Matthew Stafford, who flourishes no matter who he’s throwing to outside. The Rams get this one behind Stafford and drop the Bears to 1-3.
Pick: Rams 26, Bears 20
Bonus: SportsLine’s NFL expert Jason La Canfora made this game part of his early best bets, out every Monday morning at SportsLine. See the rest of his early Week 4 plays here.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is one of the games of the week. The Vikings are 3-0 and riding high, while the Packers are 2-1 and have won two games with Malik Willis playing quarterback. That’s because the defense has been outstanding. Same for the Vikings. That means this should be a low-scoring game. Packers take it.
Pick: Packers 21, Vikings 17
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Jaguars are 0-3 and coming off a horrible loss on Monday night, which means this is a short week for a team playing bad football. The Texans weren’t good last week against the Vikings, but C.J. Stroud will bounce back here against a bad Jacksonville defense. Texans take it.
Pick: Texans 30, Jaguars 16
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Steelers are riding high at 3-0 and their style travels well. They are physical defense that will limit the Colts run game and make Anthony Richardson beat them. He won’t. The Steelers and Justin Fields will do enough on offense to pull out a victory.
Pick: Steelers 20, Colts 16
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, likes the Steelers to cover against the Colts in Week 4. See the other picks the model is backing at SportsLine.
Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Broncos are playing consecutive road games, but they did stay in West Virginia. They played well last week beating the Bucs, but this is a much tougher defense. That will be a problem for Bo Nix. Aaron Rodgers got it going last week and that continues. Jets big.
Pick: Jets 27, Broncos 17
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is a second straight road game for the Eagles against the NFC South after they beat the Saints last week. The Bucs were awful last week in losing to the Broncos, but that could have been a sandwich game between the Lions and Eagles. The Bucs are so banged up on defense and the offensive line had issues last week. That carries over. Philadelphia takes it.
Pick: Eagles 23, Bucs 19
Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is second straight road game on a short week for the Commanders, which is tough. The Cardinals have played well, but they are 1-2 losing two pretty close games. I look for Kyler Murray to win a shootout with Jayden Daniels. This will be fun to watch.
Pick: Cardinals 33, Commanders 27
New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (-10)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is a long trip for a Patriots team that isn’t playing well against a 49ers team that has a lot of injuries. The 49ers blew their game against the Rams last week, but they will get back on track here. Brock Purdy will play well, while the defense limits a bad Pats offense.
Pick: 49ers 24, Patriots 7
Kansas City Chiefs (-8) at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The status of Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert bears watching in this one. If he plays, the Chargers have a chance to win. If he doesn’t, I still think they keep it close. The Chiefs are playing consecutive road games and they haven’t looked as crisp this season. This will be another close one for them.
Pick: Chiefs 23, Chargers 20
Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders (-1)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Both teams are coming off bad home losses. The Raiders have been considering a quarterback change, while a lot of folks in Cleveland wouldn’t mind one. Deshaun Watson is not playing well. I think he will pick it up here and play better. The Browns win their second road game of the season.
Pick: Browns 23, Raiders 17
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
This is a big game for AFC superiority. The Bills are playing as well as anybody at 3-0, while the Ravens are coming off an impressive road victory over Dallas. The Ravens ran it right at the Cowboys and they will do the same in this one. Josh Allen has been outstanding, but how much will he have the football if Derrick Henry is going well? I think the Ravens run to victory.
Pick: Ravens 24, Bills 21
Tennessee Titans (-1) at Miami Dolphins
Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)
The Titans are 0-3 and the Dolphins have major issues at quarterback without Tua Tagovailoa. Tennessee went into Miami and rallied last year to beat the Dolphins behind Will Levis. He hasn’t been the same quarterback this year, turning it over too much, but I think he can have success in this one. The Titans will win it.
Pick: Titans 25, Dolphins 21
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-4)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC, fubo)
This is a big proving game for the Seahawks. They are 3-0, but the schedule hasn’t been tough. This game will be. The Lions have played well on defense, which will make this a challenge for Geno Smith. The Lions offense, which hasn’t been great, will get going here. Lions take it.
Pick: Lions 27, Seahawks 20
